The Crystal Ball - Pool Picks - Conference Round
In the divisional round of the playoffs we went a perfect 4 – 4 both straight up and against the spread which makes us 6 – 2 straight up and 5 – 3 against the spread for the playoff rounds; I probably should quit now. Obviously, I will not but don’t expect the same results this week.
New York Jets at Indianapolis – The Jets got into the playoffs at least partially due to the generosity of the Colts in Week 16; this game could become a cautionary tale if the Jets should happen to win. Last week they won in San Diego as their defense kept the game close. Their pass coverage was good and they managed to get pressure on Rivers. The blitzes they used last week may be less effective against this week’s quarterback and the pressure may not get there.
The offense continued to grind out the running game, wearing down the Charger defense in the fourth quarter. The game plan started out with runs to the outside, which were largely ineffective; as they focused their run game on the interior line, they were more successful. The passing game was sporadic but they came up with some timely plays there mostly on underneath routes. This is not a team that is designed to come from behind; they will need to start better offensively this week to have a chance.
The Colts offense was a bit flat early in the game but not as much as some may have expected. Manning had a rather average statistical day but he played at an extremely high level completing passes on time and into tight coverage. While the offensive line did a good job against the Raven pass rush, the running game never really got on track.
The key in this game was the Colts defense, which played very well in shutting down the Baltimore running game. The defensive line held up well and the tackling was very good, limiting yards after contact. They forced the Ravens into thirty-five pass attempts against nineteen rushing attempts; the coverage by the secondary was solid and the result predictable.
This week’s game looks a bit like last weeks for both opponents. The Jets pass defense faces a better and more diverse offense though and a better overall defense is better as well. The Jets need to keep this game close and hope to be able to win at the end but even if they manage to stay close the Colt’s seem to be the team to win the close games, Colts win 24 – 14.
Minnesota at New Orleans – Minnesota had a strong performance against Dallas last week after an extra week of rest and preparation. The defense played well and created the turnovers that helped the Vikings dominate. The extra time may have helped work out some more of the issues created by the absence of middle linebacker E.J. Henderson. The outside pass rush was very effective which helps cover some weaknesses that exist in the secondary. This week they will need to get push up the middle to disrupt the Saints attack and close off throwing lanes.
The offense may have looked more effective by the score than it actually was as the Vikings benefited from favorable field position and three extra possessions. The offensive line play was still not consistent. They gave up two sacks but more to the point the running game was not particularly effective; which has been a continuing theme of late for a team with one of the top running backs in the NFL. To win this week the offensive line will need to play much better than they have at any time in the past two months.
New Orleans came out of their bye week and scored three first quarter touchdowns taking immediate control of the game offensively. The offense continued to dominate a Cardinals team that looked tired and overmatched. They had good offensive balance and for the most part seemed to be able to do as they wished, the offensive line played quite well. This week may be more challenging as the Viking defensive line will present a “larger” challenge.
After surrendering a long touchdown on the first play of the game, the defense played well overall and the secondary was outstanding in coverage. The defensive line was not tested by the running game as Arizona was playing from behind; they did get pressure on the quarterback though only one sack. They have been vulnerable against the run this season and will need to control Peterson but will also need to get consistent pressure on Favre in the passing game.
The game rates to be high scoring, both offenses are potent and the defenses have some issues. The special teams could figure into the result as both teams are capable of big plays and the coverage units will be challenged. The offenses of each team are capable of going off and producing big plays at any time. If someone gets hot, one of these teams could end up blowing the other out; but which one is not certain. However, overall the Vikings have not been a good road team and the Saints are the better offense, the Saints win 31 - 28.