The Crystal Ball - Pool Picks - Wildcard Round
In week seventeen, we turned in a 10 - 6 result, against the spread, the results were about as expected given the end of year imponderables coming in at 7 - 9. The season record is 176 - 80 straight up and 139 - 113 - 4 against the spread assuring an above average result there. (Line results are taken against the line available to me on Tuesday evening when I make my final choices.) So ends one of my better seasons, and an all time result against the spread
This playoff weekend sees three games that are replays of week seventeen matchups a condition that has never occurred before. Since only one of those matchups last week had any significance, you can expect these games to be much more competitive this week.
Wildcard Round
New York Jets at Cincinnati - The New York Jets have been up and down, the defense is the best in the NFL; they also lead the league in rushing. Many pundits would say that this combination should make them a playoff favorite but the passing game is erratic at best and their rookie, quarterback the primary reason. They are best when they play from the lead and they keep the pressure off of Sanchez.
The Bengals have played well in a difficult division but have had their share of lapses. Their power running game has been their strong point. The passing game has been less effective because of the lack of a second receiver and mediocre pass blocking from the offensive line. The defense is solid especially against the pass, not a big help in this matchup and losing Sims off the defensive line does not bode well for their run defense.
These are two teams with very similar game plans, run the ball play good defense. The issue will be which one is going to do it better this week. New York’s easy win last week is unlikely to be repeated, as the Bengals will not be resting players this time around still, Jets win 21 - 17.
Philadelphia at Dallas - Philadelphia is a frustratingly inconsistent team as they demonstrated throughout the season. They can certainly win depending on the play of McNabb and their ability to pressure on the opposing quarterback to force errors. When they don’t force errors the defense is average; they have to hope that McNabb gets hot, in which case they can beat anyone.
Dallas is playing well at the best time of the season to do so. The defense has been very good of late but they still have some coverage issues that may hurt them. The offense has some good weapons in the passing game but they are best when they establish the running game with both Barber and Jones. When they control the tempo of the game they win.
It is hard to beat a divisional rival three games in a season; there are few surprises left in the playbook at this point. Recent performance favors the Cowboys but McNabb seldom has two bad games in a row and the Cowboy’s playoff history is a concern as well, Cowboys win 24 - 21.
Baltimore at New England - Baltimore has changed formula somewhat, the defense is down a bit but the offense is much better than in recent years. Their offensive line is playing well and the running game is solid. The defensive secondary has given up some big plays; the run defense has been very good.
New England has a huge void to fill with the injury to Welker; however, Edelman provides a reasonable if less talented replacement there. They will need to step up but the running game has been getting better and Kevin Faulk can play in the passing game as well. The defense has had some problems wearing down late but they expect to get some players back.
The match up here is going to depend on the passing game; the Patriots defense can stop the run. Moss is going to prove to be a very difficult match up but Brady will have to get everyone else involved in the passing game and they need to get out to an early lead to control the tempo of the game, Patriots win 21 -17.
Green Bay at Arizona - Green Bay has a prolific offense that has gotten better as the season progressed and the offensive line matured and protection for Rogers improved. The defense has improved also having changed to the 3-4 this season their talent is good but the personnel are not ideal for this scheme.
The injury to Boldin is a concern here and his status for the game is uncertain at this time. Their offense has plenty of weapons but will need them all. The defense has been up and down at times and has some injury issues there as well that are a concern. Fitzgerald’s record setting play and the defense really made the playoff run possible last season and they will need that magic again.
Both of these teams rely on their offenses and have plenty of scoring ability. This game will be closer than the week seventeen matchup but it is hard to see the Cardinals recovering enough against a Green Bay team that is playing well at the right time, Packers win 28 - 20.