Football Forecasters

We did improve last week to 3 – 1 both straight up and against the spread bringing the record so far for the playoffs to 5 – 3 again for both so far. This compares against the 2011 season results 68 % straight up and 45.6% against the spread. I got the Giants pick right and Kurt got the Forty-niners game correct we had a perfect weekend between us.

The conference playoff games have an opportunity to both be very good contests. Turnovers seemed to be the rule of the day this past week in a couple of games. This is typical; more football games are lost as opposed to actually being won. That trend is likely to continue into this weekend and both games while both games look to be competitive turnovers can change the landscape quickly.

Our Super Bowl choice will be available the Wednesday before the Super Bowl so we will not be posting next week. There would be a certain irony in this year of the big passing games to have the season come down to a San Francisco – Baltimore Super Bowl. The brother angle is a good story line as well but I have my doubts that will be how it works out as you will see below.

The Conference Round

New York at San Francisco – San Francisco has been good at taking care of the ball and lead the league in take-aways. Turnovers have an element of luck, the oddly-shaped ball bounces funny and luck is a bigger factor here than most are willing to acknowledge. Still the defense is very good and the matchup favors them this week. The offense, despite game ending heroics last week, has been somewhat plodding overall but may have greater big play potential than recognized.

New York is playing very well. The defense is very good against the pass but this week will face a more balanced attack which will make them more vulnerable overall. Still the ability of the defense to get pressure with the line gives them flexibility in arranging their defensive assets. The offense is capable but expect San Francisco to take the running game away early; if they can establish the threat of the run play action does have potential to open up a big play which is an edge in this game

This is a difficult game to call, the match ups are very close overall. New York has the better offense, San Francisco the better defense and special teams but the overall margin across these aspects is very close and the game will likely come down to a mistake or big play at the end. The one place where the difference in quality is most clear is at quarterback so the choice here goes with Manning, Giants win 24 – 21.

Baltimore at New England – Baltimore is a team that has defined itself with its defense. They play with speed to the ball and tackle well but much of their success is based on making big plays, turnovers, interceptions, scoring defensively. An issue will be how they match up against the New England tight ends. The offense works off the running game and play action passing. Flacco throws a good deep ball but the team does not have much in the way of reliable receivers aside from Boldin and the offensive line has been erratic.

New England has been playing well offensively; the offense is based on not allowing defenses to match up against their skill personnel. They can play the same player grouping as a two tight end set or as five wide. Brady can read a defense and has a quick release which makes this an offense that is difficult to slow down let alone stop. The defense however can keep most opponents in the game though; they do not have much of a pass rush and have been poor tacklers.

This is also an interesting game to try to figure out. Baltimore plays with a great deal of emotion and seems to play better against their stronger opponents; they play with great emotion and are probably overall the better team in terms of talent. In a close game where they can get the running game going to control the tempo they have a lot of positives. Unfortunately if they fall behind they lack the tools to come back. The New England defense gives up a lot of yardage but has not given up points correspondingly, again going with the better quarterback, Patriots win 35 – 24.

The divisional week playoff games are often somewhat less interesting than the wildcard games. This set of games though should be fairly competitive with possibly the exception of Denver who has a chance but is seriously outclassed in terms of offensive talent. Next week there will be four teams still left on the road to the Super Bowl. The NFC looks more competitive than the AFC at this point. The playoff choices went 2-2 both straight up and against the spread. We will try to improve on that this week.

The Divisional Round

New Orleans at San Francisco – San Francisco has the best overall defense in the NFL; they are excellent against the run and decent against the pass as well. The offense is built around the running game and ball control. There are talented weapons in the passing game but there is a lack of consistency in their performance.

New Orleans has the best offense in the NFL, they can seemingly score from anywhere at any time. They have more offensive weapons then they can get on the field at one time and they use them all over the course of a game. The defense has given up a lot of passing yards but is decent against the run which is a matchup of concern this week.

San Francisco needs to keep this game in control by keeping Brees on the sidelines, they cannot win a shootout. That is much easier said than done and the team that led the league in field goals will have to come up with touchdowns instead this week which seems unlikely, Saints win 31 – 21.

Denver at New England – Denver managed to roll up an impressive win against a somewhat undermanned Pittsburgh team. The defense played well, this is a fast and aggressive defense that moves to the ball and tackles well. The offense works off of the running game and uses that to set up the pass, going vertical whenever possible. Tebow is not particularly accurate but he has a strong arm.

New England is all about their offense. This works because they can simply swamp a defense with weapons and get mismatches because of their versatile use of personnel. In their base package they can put two receivers out in the pattern or five making it impossible for a defense to respond with specialized personnel groupings. Their defense is something less dynamic, giving up the second most yards from scrimmage in the NFL.

When these teams played earlier New England jumped out to a lead and Denver made multiple turnovers as they struggled in their comeback attempt. Denver will have to maintain ball control and keep New England off of the field to have a chance. New England simply has to not make mistakes and history repeats itself, Patriots win 31 – 17.

Houston at Baltimore – Houston has a top offensive line which provides excellent blocking for two very good running backs that is the heart of this offense. Yates is a true rookie quarterback and often looks like one; Andre Johnson is a great weapon whose presence on the field automatically opens up the field for everyone else because of his big play potential. The defense is sound both against the rush and the pass. Injuries have weakened the depth of this group but hey are still formidable.

Baltimore plays very well at home and the rest should allow Boldin to be available for this game, important as he is their possession receiver. The offensive line play has been inconsistent but has improved somewhat as the season has progressed. The defense is strength of this team and they are very good against the run. Probably more importantly this is a big play defense that is capable of generating turnovers.

The strength to strength matchup is the Houston running game against the Baltimore front seven which has the edge to Baltimore overall tough slightly. The rookie quarterback will have a difficult time with the pressure and looks that he is going to get this week, Ravens win 27 – 21.

New York at Green Bay – Green Bay has a strong offense that is very explosive; in the passing game can generate points in a hurry. The running game has been somewhere between inadequate and non-existent though. With the week off they should be getting back a couple of key offensive linemen and their best receiver. The defense has been very successful at getting turnovers but they also give up yardage in huge chunks.

New York is possibly as healthy as they have been at any point during the season. This is of particular importance along the defensive line where their depth gives them a rotation that allows them to maintain a high energy pass rush. On the other of the ball both running backs are healthy and productive as well for the first time all season giving the offense a potential for ball control and to wear opponents down in the fourth quarter.

The match up here is good for New York if they can keep the game close; the pass rush will get to Rodgers at least enough to reduce his comfort level. New York has passing weapons of their own and if they can avoid turnovers Giants win 31 – 28.

We closed out the season with a 12 – 4 straight up record for the week and the season record closes out at 174 –82. All in all not too bad of a straight up record for the season it would be my second best year since starting here in 2006. Picking against the spread was an entirely different story the final week was 5 – 10 – 1; which is the first season in that same time period that I have been below average on the year ending at 114 – 136 – 6. All in all I consider this a very tough year to pick, the lack of preseason and injuries made determining talent and consistency very difficult.

The playoffs should be interesting in a strange way. I have no real idea who the favorites are this season. Every team is flawed, some of the higher seeded teams critically so. Both Green Bay and New England have terrible defenses only marginally better than New Orleans. San Francisco and Baltimore have solid defenses but inconsistent offenses, neither one have much chance if they have to come back from a deficit. Pittsburgh has a mediocre offensive line and their defense has had problems against high octane offenses. I am not sure that I like any of these teams.

I suppose that the favorite going in has to be Green Bay given home field and their ability to score though the weather there could actually work against them. If the Super Bowl should end up with Green Bay against New England I think that the score could end up looking like it was a basketball game. But perhaps we will see some kind of a dark horse candidate emerge and get hot in the playoffs.

The Wildcard Round

Cincinnati at Houston – Houston comes into the playoffs in reverse off of three consecutive loses. They have been having offensive difficulties since Shaub went down and have been without their best receiver for most of the season. The offensive line is very good and the running game is sound but their ability to get offensive consistency in the passing game has been poor the last several weeks. The defense can be good and was the strength of this team but it seems to have fallen off of late.

Cincinnati has been a bit of a surprise this season. The defense was expected to be decent and has exceeded expectations somewhat. They can get pressure on the passer but the test here will be how they fare against the rushing attack where they have given up some big plays on occasion. The offense is keyed off of their rookie quarterback and big plays made by Green the rookie receiver but they have other weapons and the vertical threat opens up the rest of the field for everyone else.

The Texans need to turn it back on but that is generally very difficult to accomplish at this time of year, getting Johnson back could be the needed catalyst but rust and a balky hamstring make that a feeble reed to hang one’s hope on. This should be a close game and turnovers often decide these issues in the final analysis but the slight edge goes to the Bengals 24 – 21.

Detroit at New Orleans – Detroit has a great offense, they are talented and explosive capable of scoring from anywhere as Stafford, who has been somewhat ignored was the third quarterback to throw for over 5,000 yards this season, when there have been only two in NFL history prior to this season. The running game is somewhat more limited and the offensive line merely average if that. The defense has an outstanding line which helps the defensive backs look somewhat better than they are.

New Orleans has Brees who holds the NFL yardage record, by a substantial margin and a completion percentage of over seventy percent. They have more offensive weapons than any other team in playoffs at this point, their running game is superior and Sproles has proved to be a nightmare matchup for defenses. Their offensive line is particularly solid in the middle though they will be tested this week. The defense has been inconsistent but is usually in the position of protecting substantial leads.

The Lions are a young team and immature and it shows in their play which is sometimes sloppy with too many penalties and mental errors. New Orleans plays exceptionally well at home and they game plan well to take advantage of their strengths and the opponent’s weaknesses. This game could be a track meet but it also could get out of hand early, Saints win 38 – 24.

Atlanta at New York – Atlanta has become a much more vertical offense as the season has progressed. Jones has given them a player who stretches the field and makes their running game easier as well as opening up holes in the coverage for other receivers. The defense is solid against the run but the secondary is very suspect, they will need a greatly improved pass rush this week.

New York has been inconsistent though some of that is attributed to injury issues. The defensive line is very good and getting better at the right time of the year. Manning is having a career season, unnoticed as there have been so many strong quarterback showings this year and he is helped by having both running backs available at this point in the playoffs. This team seems to play at its best with their backs against the wall.

This is not an easy game to call, turnovers will probably decide this one or it could come down to a last possession type of game. Atlanta is not a particularly good road team and they have an exploitable weakness. New York has been inconsistent at times but seem to be playing well over the last couple of games, Giants win 24 – 20.

Pittsburgh at Denver – As noted before backing into the playoffs is not a good omen for moving into the playoffs and Denver has been backing up for weeks. This is a largely one-dimensional team that has an effective running attack and little else. The passing game is limited by having a limited receiving corps and a passer who is inaccurate and inconsistent despite his other talents. The defense can be very good at times but they need to be supported by an offense that can at least score a bit.

Pittsburgh has some nontrivial injury issues. In addition to Roethlisberger and Pouncey recovering from injuries, but still obviously recovering, they lose Mendenhall. The offense has transitioned into a big play, passing attack, not the grind it out running attack of their vaunted history. The weapons are there but the offensive line is not particularly good which is a problem given how long the quarterback holds onto the ball. The defense has been inconsistent at times but still is capable of making big plays and should do well against a limited offensive attack.

The way these quarterbacks try to extend plays there could be a lot of sacks and potential turnovers cropping up in this game. That is particularly bad for Denver who really has very limited resources to recover from any kind of a substantial deficit. Pittsburgh should prevail in what should be a relatively low scoring game, Steelers win 20 – 10.