Football Forecasters

We will start picking games just after Labor Day, but the question arises how do you know whose picks are the “Best”? After all it isn’t like there is any way to check, or is there. Well as a matter of fact there is, a group does track how publicly placed (non-subscription) Internet sites pick football games by score and actually tracks the results.

Gerald Shultz has put together the NSPL (National Score Predicting League) which tracks this information for a variety of football prognosticators around the Internet. They track accuracy against winner, spread, and total points for every NFL game through the season and the playoffs. And, for anyone who has not guessed by this point, in 2010 we were the most accurate predictors overall. (We also won their head-to-head playoff competition as well for post season honors as well.)

If you consider their statistics for only those picking every contest over the past three years that we have been responsible for picking here at Football Forecasters the overall numbers are impressive. First picking against the spread and tied for fourth in winners, and sixth in overall accuracy. (Those numbers fall off to third, tied for ninth, and thirteenth respectively against the field if we include those who do not produce results for every game; still pretty good.)

The numbers they keep are a bit different from our numbers as they take the line the day prior to games and we use the line at the time that the picks our made. The difference is normally pretty mild and often doesn’t matter except when we are occasionally forced because our deadline to make a pick when the line still is not available. (At that point we fall back to a preliminary line from the prior Sunday which can be very different from the time the final line appears.)

In any case if you want accuracy this is the place to get it so come back and join us for a new season as we attempt to defend. So, now Kurt, about that raise….

The Steelers have some offensive line issues to get straightened out and need an upgrade or at least some more depth in their receiver corps, Ward is not getting any younger, the defense will continue to be the strength of the team. The Ravens are looking to get more out of their offense and they probably will if Lee Evans can help open up some of the under routes. The defense continues to age but will still create some havoc. (Opening weekend features these two teams, the battle for the division rates to go to the end of the season.) Cleveland is improving but still has some issues as they will be installing a new defense, again. Cincinnati will be playing a rookie quarterback and a new receiver corps and after losing one of their best defenders it is likely to be a long season.

The Patriots will take on a slightly different defensive look after adding Haynesworth; their pass rush needs to improve it is unclear how that will happen though. Their offense will be sound although probably a bit less explosive than in recent years as they don’t have a lot of speed in the receiver corps; the running game may be significantly better. The Jets are going to be a defensive powerhouse but the offense will likely continue to sputter a bit; despite a very good offensive line they have struggled finding an effective passing game. Miami is coming on but will need better offensive production to break through to the post season given the quality of the top teams in the division. Buffalo may have a better defense than most are expecting but the offense rates to continue to struggle; the offensive line will struggle again.

The Colts have actually added some defensive players in free agency which is unusual; that could add to the units effectiveness though they still look a bit thin at defensive back. The offense will continue its winning ways as long as Manning is healthy which means they need to get the offensive line which could have two rookies starting settled early. (If Manning misses any part of the season the Colts are likely to lose every game he is out.) Houston should be offensively very good with Johnson and Foster being two of the best at their positions when healthy. The defense is getting a complete makeover in hopes of solving their terrible pass defense of last season; the change may take a bit to work in as the personnel are not all a good fit. Jacksonville has health questions at both quarterback and running back; the defense should be better but they are still an average unit at best. It is difficult to tell what the situation is in Tennessee; the situation with Chris Johnson has dragged on to the point that the lack of practice time is going to be an issue into the season.

The Chargers had a top ranked offense and defense last year yet couldn’t make the playoffs last season because of truly execrable special teams play. This season their focus should be better and the special teams play should improve (it would almost have to). The Chefs won the division last season and have improved their overall talent on both sides of the ball but the schedule is going to be more difficult as well. Oakland has plenty of talent at the skill positions but the offensive line is a real question mark and limits their ability to advance much this season. Denver has added some new personnel and made coaching changes but improvement is going to take time and draft choices; this is a rebuilding year, expect a slow start and up and down results.

Here the playoffs will likely see San Diego as the number one seed; their division and schedule give them a distinct advantage. The other teams are all a little less clear as there will be some division struggles for everyone else. If Manning stays healthy the Colts have some chances at the second seed as their defense should see some improvement and last year’s injuries return but that is a big if at this point. The Steelers are a likely to win their division, health will matter here as the defense is not getting any younger and the offensive line has some questions. The Patriots and the Jets will battle it out in their division; assuming that Belichick gets the defense tuned they should come out ahead in this contest. So the likely results here have the Ravens and the Jets as the wildcards in the AFC. The Colts are not likely to make the AFC conference game (assuming they win their division) let alone the Indianapolis Super Bowl. While San Diego has the talent coaching there is still suspect so the pick here is the Patriots as the very slight favorites over Pittsburgh when the dust settles.

Oh, you want the Super Bowl prediction as well? The abbreviated off season may have actually helped the Packers by removing a lot of the distractions that the Super Bowl champion faces trying to prepare for the following season. They did not lose any significant parts to their roster and they should have an easier path to this year as they rate to have home field advantage within their division as opposed to having to go the wild card route. So they are my pick here, at least until the season starts.

Green Bay is the defending Super Bowl champion and one of the two or three most talented teams in the league. It is always difficult to measure a team off of a Super Bowl win; their motivation and concentration are often reduced. Still the Packers are getting a number of player back from injury, play in a soft division and have a relatively easy schedule which makes them the early favorite for home field advantage in the playoffs. Chicago won this division last season but the offensive line remains a question and the defense is getting old; if they can stay healthy they might get into the playoffs as their schedule is otherwise favorable. Detroit is certainly improving but still needs to add some pieces to the back seven of the defense to have a playoff shot. Minnesota is rebuilding at this point and need to work on the offensive line.

There has been a lot of commentary about the Eagles who have been uncharacteristically busy in free agency. Their defensive secondary is certainly formidable and they are one of the more talented teams in the NFL at this point. There seems to be a definite push to win a Super Bowl and it is possible that anything less than a championship will result in some front office/coaching changes there. The critical question is can Vick stay healthy which, given his playing style and the limitations of their offensive line; that seems to be a bit against the odds. They play in a division with good defensive lines and Vick tries to extend plays resulting in taking to many hits. Still going in they probably have to be considered the favorites in their division with both Dallas and the Giants on close behind, one or the other of those teams is likely to make the playoffs.

The New Orleans Saints are talented and seem to be the favorite in their division from that standpoint alone. Losing their center to free agency is certainly a negative factor but they are solid everywhere else and the defense should be improved. The Falcons offense is solid and should continue to provide ball control but the defense needed to improve and it is not clear that it has, which will make repeating their division championship from last season difficult. Tampa Bay continues to improve and could challenge in the division as their defense continues to develop. Carolina is likely looking at another top three draft pick next season as putting a rookie quarterback behind a mediocre offensive line is not a recipe for success.

The NFC west is going to be interesting and likely competitive, at least between the teams involved, but each has a number of question marks and anyone coming up with double digit wins, while possible, seems unlikely. Picking a winner here will depend upon quarterback play and in most cases some additional good fortune as well. The best quarterback going in is Bradford for the Rams; still developing the change in the offensive scheme will not help him though and a young defense will have to get better in a hurry. Kolb got the early hook in Philadelphia and working for Whisenhunt in Arizona cannot be all that reassuring; the offensive line has some questions which may complicate his development as well. Seattle has some pieces but can Jackson put them together; the history on him is not reassuring but there is some talent there. San Francisco has an uphill battle changing their coaching staff and losing a couple of key components from the defense. Pick one, your choice, right now the Rams seem to me to have the strongest case largely based on a young and talented offensive line.

The playoff’s then will have most of the usual suspects with Dallas/New York and Atlanta/Chicago (making that opening day contest of some interest) the most likely wild cards. With Green Bay the likely one seed it makes it difficult for the Eagles or Saints, the two strongest contenders, who will likely have to play through each other to get to the championship game. The Eagles have the defensive backfield that gives them the best chance against the big play offenses of the Packers and Saints which was obviously one of the points of their off season but will it be sufficient? The possession of the second seed, and a chance for some bye week recovery time, is probably critical to their chances.

Well we have football. Welcome back but if you are looking for a comprehensive view of the upcoming season you are going to have to wait a bit. After nearly five months of nothing there has been a whole off-season and a half of activity crammed into a week and a half. Frankly things have happened so fast and some of the changes are potentially big enough that it will take a while to see how things work out.

The other issue to contend with in trying to get a handle on the upcoming season is the shortened preparation time. Three issues here all potentially major. Rookies have not had a lot of time with the playbook or their position coaches. Expect rookies to be very limited this season in terms of contributing. There may be a couple of wide receivers who might buck that trend but for the most part they are going to be learning on the job and the learning curve is going to be steep. There is some correlation here with the free agent though the caveat here is that a free agent who is going into a known system or reuniting with a coach will likely catch on faster. The final component will be a likely increase in injuries. Most of these guys did work out during the lockout but being in workout shape and football shape are two entirely different things.

So what do we think we know out of all this confusion? Stability is good, teams with coaching and player continuity will have the best opportunity to be successful. The systems are known and the expectations are clear; these teams are best placed to start strong, Green Bay, New Orleans, Pittsburg, Indianapolis, New England, Philadelphia, in short the usual suspects. Good coaching is going to tell more than normal; the position coaching in particular to bring free agents and rookies into the game plan first with specific packages and work them in for more time as they acclimate to the system and new terminology. Expect more problems than usual for teams with new coaching staffs.

There is a lot of talent in the NFL and getting it to work together has always been a challenge, never more than this season though. There are some high expectations for some teams but none more than Philadelphia. The defensive secondary is truly all-world; they will be hard to beat over the top, the front seven may be a bit of a question though. The real question is Vick who is coming off of a good year but has taken way to many hits because of his playing style. Can he stay healthy for the entire sixteen game season behind that offensive line?

In any case we are doing our due diligence trying to prepare for the season but expect there will be a higher than usual amount of chaos during the first couple of weeks of the season.