Football Forecasters

This shapes up as a GREAT Super Bowl to watch.  After listening to the endless banter of pundits and analyzing strength and weakness of both teams, a compelling match-up exists between the Pittsburgh defensive line and Green Bay offensive line.  If the Packers O-line keeps Rodgers on his feet the Packers have the precision over the top pass attack to put more than enough points up on this Steelers D.  Pittsburgh is a little soft at corner back, and Green Bay has the depth and talent at receiver to take advantage.  On the other side much has been made of Big Ben’s ability to come up big in big games.  However, consider another point of view - Ben has managed the offense, while the Pittsburgh defense has controlled the flow of games (contrary to the irrational exuberance of fans such as my brother Clint).  I don’t see the Pittsburgh pass attack being able to sustain consistent pressure on this Packers secondary - this is a pivotal factor.  The Steelers will be able to move the ball between the 20’s; but the Packers have an underrated defense of their own, and will be able to keep the big plays to a minimum,   My call - Packers by 7.Â

So far, through the playoffs we are 6-4 with the Super Bowl left to pick. This looks like a good match up in many respects and could be a very closely contested game though that has not been the norm.

Good luck and we will be back for the draft and commentary on the labor situation during the off season so check in during the Spring.

Super Bowl

Pittsburgh has solid defensive front and they are playing well, they should control the limited running attack without much difficulty and should also be able to get some pressure with the base pass rush. The secondary can be vulnerable and Polamahu, has not played his usual role since coming back from an Achilles injury late in the season, hopefully the extra rest of the bye week will help as he will be needed. The Pittsburgh offensive game plan against the Jets did a good job establishing the run; that should be the focus again. Use the run to set up the pass and control the tempo of the game; they do not want to get in a shoot out. The offensive line is not very quick and run blocking is their strength, such as it is. They look to be without Pouncey at center, or if he plays, it will be with limited mobility, which is a concern.

Green Bay is playing very well at the most critical time of the year. Rodgers has a quick release and is very accurate which helps him against the rush. The running game will be difficult to establish though and they will need to keep at it. In the long run it seems likely that Green Bay will have to rely on their passing game and taking care of the ball. The defense has big play potential and the pass rush is exceptional. They are not particularly good against the run and that could be a problem if they get behind; they could find themselves trying to matchup defensive personnel and being out maneuvered.

While either team is certainly capable of winning this game there are certain match up advantages that seem to favor Green Bay including playing on a faster surface. Most of those can be neutralized if the game is kept close and Pittsburgh can control the tempo of the game, which should be their game plan. A turnover could swing this very easily but if the Packers get a lead it will be hard for Pittsburgh to rally against a defense that plays the pass as well as Green Bay does, Packers win 28 – 21.