We have two top rated NFL picks this week:
DENVER (ML) - Better coached team with superior QB prevails in London.
TAMPA BAY (ML)(+) - Arizona rookie QB has severe shortcomings, take the scrappy road team with a very good QB in Josh Freeman.
Also Likes: San Diego, Houston (+)
The past week was one of our better, or at least more successful efforts at 10 – 4 straight up making the season record there 63 – 41. Against the spread, it was even better garnering a very nice 11 – 3 bringing us to a solid looking 54 – 46 – 4 on the season
I participate in a pick’em league and these choices reflect the picks I make there; for that league I can make changes until the first game kicks off and will (rarely) based on last minute injury information. These picks are for amusement value only; please do not confuse these choices with the real picks made on this site by those who are focusing on the best choices available as they see them. The line used is a line in effect when I picked the game (usually the day prior to the line being posted).
Week 8
Miami at Cincinnati – Cincinnati has been inconsistent on both sides of the ball and the defense has been porous at times. Miami seems is undefeated on the road and yet to win at home, this is a solid defense with a an improving offense, Dolphins win 24 – 20.
Jacksonville at Dallas – The Jaguars have a terrible pass defense and a limited offense that has to replace their right tackle. Dallas is vulnerable to a good passing attack, which is not a problem this week; their run defense is solid, Cowboys win 21 – 17.
Washington at Detroit – Washington has been offensively successful with limited resources, the defense has been giving up a lot of yardage and is vulnerable in he passing game. Detroit is getting Stafford back and coming off their bye, Lions win 27 – 24.
Buffalo at Kansas City – The Bills have been playing better offensively but they have a limited talent pool and the offensive line is mediocre at best. Kansas City is playing good defense and the offense has been sound, Chiefs win 24 – 17.
Green Bay at New York Jets – The Packers are likely to be a bit flat off of last weeks win and are playing a number of backups at this point. The Jets are coming off their bye week and are about as healthy as any tem in the league at this point, Jets win 28 – 21.
Denver at San Francisco – San Francisco may be starting a backup quarterback and they have had issues enough with their starter as it is. Denver looks to get the passing game back on track but the defense needs to get some stops, Broncos win 28 – 20.
Carolina at St Louis – The Panthers actually have a reasonable defense but the offense is limited and both running backs are nicked up. The Rams are playing well at home; they have a number of injuries including Jackson, which are a concern, Rams win 24 – 20.
Tennessee at San Diego – Tennessee is vulnerable in the secondary, though they rate to have Young back but this team is not likely to keep up with a high scoring offense. San Diego has some injury issues and has found inventive ways to lose, Chargers win 35 – 21.
Tampa Bay at Arizona –Arizona has also been limited offensively largely due to quarterbacking issues but have talent and are getting used to a different style offense. The Buccaneers have been successful with very limited offensive production, Buccaneers win 21 – 17.
Minnesota at New England – The Vikings are hurting in a number of ways not just at quarterback even if Favre plays his effectiveness rates to be limited. New England finds ways to win; they are vulnerable in the secondary but should control the tempo in this game, Patriots win 28 – 20.
Seattle at Oakland – Seattle has a good run defense, which will be important, but they still are not a good road team. The Raiders rely on their running game, which has to set up the passing game, but should win here if they do not beat themselves, Raiders win 24 – 17.
Pittsburgh at New Orleans – The Saints have some injury problems in the secondary and the offense has been somewhat out of synch. Pittsburgh has been showcasing the passing game but needs to get back to ball control, the defense will miss Smith, Steelers win 27 – 24.
Houston at Indianapolis – The Texans will be without Ryans and have been terrible in the defensive secondary. Indianapolis is coming out of the bye week in somewhat worse health than they went in, the defense will need to step up, Colts win 28 – 21.
NFL PICKS WEEK 7
Can’t login to the home page for an update, hope to fix that soon - so this weeks top picks are posted here in the blog:
MIAMI (+)(ML) Underrated Dolphins have lost two in a row at home, look for them to bring everything they’ve got here. Should be a tight game down to the wire, I won’t be surprised to see the defensive minded Fish pull off the outright upset.
CLEVELAND (+): They’re catching New Orleans in a nice spot. They have the power rush attack to keep the Saints offense off the field, and don’t give up the big play on offense.
KANSAS CITY: Off a loss where they should have won… they won’t overlook this sorely overmatched foe.
Parity continues to extract its toll but this week was at least back above average going 8 – 6 straight up making the season record there 53 – 37. Against the spread, it was 7 – 5 – 2 which brought us back to average on the season at 43 – 43 – 4.
I participate in a pick’em league and these choices reflect the picks I make there; for that league I can make changes until the first game kicks off and will (rarely) based on last minute injury information. These picks are for amusement value only; please do not confuse these choices with the real picks made on this site by those who are focusing on the best choices available as they see them. The line used is a line in effect when I picked the game (usually the day prior to the line being posted).
Week 7
Cincinnati at Atlanta – Cincinnati is coming off their bye week; Palmer has been slightly off all season the rest probably is not enough to help with that. Atlanta wants to control the tempo on both sides of the ball and play from ahead; the running game should work Falcons win 24 – 20.
Buffalo at Baltimore – The Bills also had a bye but there is way too much to fix here and one week is not enough time. Baltimore is coming off a difficult loss and are not going to be very happy, they will take it out on the opponent, Ravens win 28 – 14.
San Francisco at Carolina – Carolina is changing quarterbacks again not that it is expected to help in winning anything, like this week’s game for example. San Francisco continues to do less with more but should be up to handling this opportunity, Forty-niners win 21 – 17.
Washington at Chicago – The Bears offensive line is mediocre which makes Cutler an endangered species given the Martz game plans. Washington can bring pressure though they will sometimes give up the big play, Redskins win 24 – 21.
Jacksonville at Kansas City – Jacksonville is simply not very good, their pass defense is terrible and the passing offense almost nonexistent. Kansas City has a very solid defense they tackle well, their running game is the offensive strength, Chiefs win 24 – 17.
Pittsburgh at Miami – The Dolphins are playing well but are still not a top level team, the defense is solid but offense while sound is not dynamic. Pittsburgh has Roethlisberger back and appears to be one of the top teams in the league at this point, Steelers win 27 – 21.
Cleveland at New Orleans – Cleveland is getting better, they have a good power rushing game but not much else and can not keep up with better offenses. New Orleans appears to have found there game last week more of the same, Saints win 28 – 17.
Philadelphia at Tennessee – The Eagles are playing well offensively but have had some issues defensively against the run. Tennessee has a quality running game and an aggressive defense while it is not clear who will be at quarterback, Titans win 24 – 20.
St Louis at Tampa Bay – Tampa Bay has problems in the defensive secondary and limited offensive prospects as well. St Louis is not a very good road team but they appear to be improving overall, Bradford is playing very well, Rams win 21 – 20.
Arizona at Seattle – The Cardinals are starting a rookie quarterback and will not be getting a lot of help from the running game this week. Seattle has a very good run defense and they play well at home but can be inconsistent, Seattle wins 28 – 20.
Oakland at Denver – Oakland has improved somewhat but is plagued by inconsistency, their pass defense is good which will help this week but not enough. Denver has a very limited rushing attack but the passing game has been very effective, Broncos win 27 - 21
New England at San Diego – The Charger special teams have been historically bad thus far while the defense and offense are both top rated though against some soft opponents. New England is a team that plays well at home, the pass defense can be beat, but Patriots win 21 – 20.
Minnesota at Green Bay – Minnesota has been good defensively but the offensive line play has been poor and the passing game inconsistent. Green Bay has a number of injury issues to address, they will need to generate a better pass rush this week, Packers win 24 – 20.
New York Giants at Dallas – The Cowboys have been playing undisciplined and the offensive line has been nicked up and will likely be without Kosier. New York seems to have found their pass rush, the passing offense is productive and running game sound Giants win 28 – 24.
Has anyone motioned that parity is alive and well in the NFL. Last week was brutal 6 – 8 straight up in a week of upsets making the season record to 45 – 31. Against the spread, it was a discouraging 6 – 8 bringing us below average on the season so far at 36 – 38 – 2.
I participate in a pick’em league and these choices reflect the picks I make there; for that league I can make changes until the first game kicks off and will (rarely) based on last minute injury information. These picks are for amusement value only; please do not confuse these choices with the real picks made on this site by those who are focusing on the best choices available as they see them. The line used is a line in effect when I picked the game (usually the day prior to the line being posted).
Week 6
Seattle at Chicago – Seattle has had their bye week and will be starting a new running back; they are still a terrible road team with a poor pass defense. Chicago will probably have Cutler back, their running game looks better, but that is not likely a factor this week, Bears win 24 – 14.
Miami at Green Bay – The Dolphins are another team coming off their bye week, a good defense with a somewhat inconsistent offense. Green Bay has a number of injury concerns the status of Rodgers is the major concern here, Packers win 24 – 20 if he plays, lose otherwise 20 – 17.
Kansas City at Houston – The Kansas City defense is certainly for real, the offense is suspect particularly in the red zone. Houston has plenty of offensive weapons; though the defense has been particularly bad against the pass not a problem for this week, Texans win 21 – 14.
Baltimore at New England – The Patriots have to find someone to stretch the defense after trading Moss, the defense is inconsistent. Baltimore is good on both sides of the ball; the offense is showing improvement every week, Ravens win 24 – 21.
Detroit at New York Giants – Detroit won their first game; they have played everyone close all season; the defense still has issues in the secondary. The New York defense has been very solid the past couple of games, a tendency likely to continue, Giants win 28 – 21.
Atlanta at Philadelphia – The Eagles have some issues along the offensive line and has been vulnerable to the run defensively which does not match up well this week. Atlanta has been solid on both sides of the ball; the running game is the key this week, Falcons win 21 – 20.
Cleveland at Pittsburgh – Cleveland may (or may not) have their “regular” quarterback return as the starter but that is not much of an upgrade. Pittsburgh also sees their quarterback return and the upgrade is substantial though there could be timing issues, Steelers win 28 – 13.
San Diego at St Louis – The Rams are improving but still have limited depth, losing their number one receiver is not good. San Diego has the top rated offense, second rated defense, and worse special teams in the NFL, which sort of explains their record, Chargers win 24 – 17.
New Orleans at Tampa Bay – Tampa Bay is limited on offense and the defensive secondary is vulnerable which makes for a real bad match up. New Orleans has been playing without energy this week they should be playing with some focus, Saints win 27 – 20.
New York Jets at Denver – The Broncos passing offense is for real; the defense is less than impressive and the secondary was decimated by injury last week. New York also has injury issues in the secondary but should prevail on the basis of talent, Jets win 28 – 21.
Oakland at San Francisco – Oakland has a possible quarterback issue and a poor rush defense and may be a bit flat coming off a big win. San Francisco has lost games through sloppy play; the offense can establish the run and should control the tempo, Forty-niners win 28 – 20.
Dallas at Minnesota – The Vikings seem to be getting desperate to make something happen but losing their cornerback is not going to help. Dallas has had its problems with inconsistent play and their secondary has been a major offender, Cowboys win 28 – 24.
Indianapolis at Washington – Washington has been successful with limited resources but injuries are taking their toll on a team with limited depth. Indianapolis has been inconsistent but Manning is having one of the best years of his career, Colts win 24 – 17.
Tennessee at Jacksonville – The Jaguars are on a two game winning streak but the essential problems with defense and one-dimensional offense still exist. Tennessee is also a one-trick pony on offense but their defense is the difference here, Titans win 21 – 10.
Last week was 9 – 5 straight up in a fairly tough week making the season record to 39 – 23. Against the spread it was a discouraging 5 – 9 bringing us back to average on the season so far at 30 – 30 – 2. I hope that as we start into the second quarter of the season we will have a better feel for the results to come.
I participate in a pick’em league and these choices reflect the picks I make there; for that league I can make changes until the first game kicks off and will (rarely) based on last minute injury information. These picks are for amusement value only; please do not confuse these choices with the real picks made on this site by those who are focusing on the best choices available as they see them. The line used is a line in effect when I picked the game (usually the day prior to the line being posted).
Week 5
Denver at Baltimore – Denver has a real passing attack, which will be an advantage this week, but the defense gives up too much. Baltimore is starting to get their offense going; the defense should be able to make enough stops to control the game, Ravens win 24 – 20.
Jacksonville at Buffalo – News flash, the Bills are not very good, the offensive line is mediocre, and the defense is ineffective. Jacksonville has their own set of problems including defensive issues but the offense should be able to grind out a win, Jaguars win 21 – 17.
Chicago at Carolina – Carolina has a solid running game but is very limited otherwise; the defense has not generated much of a pass rush. Chicago may have Cutler back but the defense and special teams are good enough to win this week, Bears win 21 – 14.
Tampa Bay at Cincinnati – The Buccaneers are coming off their bye week; Freeman is developing at quarterback but has few weapons available. Cincinnati is not a team that can afford defensive lapses, they should have focus this week, Bengals win 28 – 17.
Atlanta at Cleveland – Cleveland coming off a big win, is a better team than their record might indicate with a very good offensive line. Atlanta is a team that is solid in all aspects of the game and capable of grinding opponents down with power running, Falcons win 27 – 20.
St Louis at Detroit – Detroit has been playing quite well but has come up short despite some dynamic play. The Rams are getting good results from their rookie quarterback but the defense has been the big surprise just by not being awful, Rams win 28 – 24.
New York Giants at Houston – The Giants found a defense last week and a pass rush; they will need that this week along with more offense. Houston has plenty of offense but the defense has been particularly vulnerable to the passing game, Texans win 27 – 21.
Kansas City at Indianapolis – The Chiefs come off the bye week as the only undefeated team in the NFL, they cannot keep up this week. The Colts have a number of injuries but they still have Manning and the ability to score from anywhere, Colts win 28 – 17.
Green Bay at Washington – Washington had a big road win and may be a little flat, they lack the offensive weapons to keep up this week. Green Bay has a solid passing offense and can be opportunistic on defense as well when playing with a lead, Packers win 30 – 17.
New Orleans at Arizona – The Cardinals may be making a change at quarterback they also need to do something to stabilize the defense. New Orleans had another narrow escape and seems to be playing down to the level of the opposition, Saints win 31 – 21.
Tennessee at Dallas – Tennessee has a talented running game and a generally stingy defense but no effective passing attack. Dallas has had the bye week to regroup, the pass defense has been a problem but will not be severely tested this week, Cowboys win 24 – 17.
San Diego at Oakland – The Raiders have a reasonably effective running game but their defense has been equally vulnerable to the run and giving up a lot of points. San Diego has plenty of offensive potential; their special teams play has been terrible, Chargers win 24 – 21.
Philadelphia at San Francisco – Philadelphia’s quarterback issues are not the real problem, the offensive line is bad, the defense inconsistent. San Francisco has been played poorly against bad teams, they are about due to play well at home, Forty-niners win 24 – 20.
Minnesota at New York Jets – The Vikings are coming off their bye week and playing at home but that offensive line is not likely to withstand the onslaught. The Jets offense is becoming more effective and they get back a major weapon in the passing game, Jets win 24 – 17.