NCAA
NORTHERN ILLINOIS (+)(ML) - Both teams have advanteges they can exploit and scoring could be liberal. This one should be decided by who has the ball last, and we won’t be a bit surprised if the Huskies win outright.
Also Likes: Houston, Alabama
NFL
SAN FRANCISCO - Niners are the better team and we don’t see them letting down in this spot, after all, this is their “playoffs”.
Also Likes: Oakland (+), Denver
In week sixteen, we turned in a reasonable 11 – 4 result, against the spread, the results were also rather good at 10 – 6. The season record is 166 – 74 straight up and 132 – 104 – 4 against the spread assuring an above average result there. (Line results are taken against the line available to me on Tuesday evening when I make my final choices.)
This is always a tough week to pick because it is hard to determine which teams are going to phone in the last game of the season. Right now there are a number of teams who might and one or two who already have so this will be more of a guessing game than usual.
I participate in a pick’em league and these choices reflect the picks for my league selections; for my league I can make changes until the first game kicks off and will (rarely) based on last minute injury information. These are for amusement value only; please do not confuse these choices with the picks this site makes for betting purposes. I do not gamble on football for what seems like obvious reasons.
Atlanta at Tampa Bay – Tampa Bay is not a team that will be quitting before the season is over but lack of talent is the issue. Atlanta will also play through the end, their injuries have been a problem but they seem to have the depth, Falcons win 24 – 14.
Indianapolis at Buffalo – The Bills may not quit but their ability to score points even against the players they are going to see on defense this week is questionable. Assuming Indianapolis plays their starters for the first half (there are some player milestones involved) it should be enough, Colts win 21 – 20.
New Orleans at Carolina – Carolina has been playing well but Steve Smith breaking his arm limits their offensive options too severely. New Orleans is not playing for anything and may choose to rest players but will be looking to go into the playoffs on a positive note, Saints win 24 – 20.
Chicago at Detroit – Detroit did not have a lot of talent when the season started and injuries have further restricted their options. Chicago took some injuries on Monday night and they are not a good team but they are good enough this week, Bears win 24 – 14.
Jacksonville at Cleveland – Cleveland may have discovered a running game but they still have a bad defense and no passing game to speak of. Jacksonville is technically in the playoff hunt and are likely looking for a win to avoid a losing season, Jaguars win 24 – 21.
New England at Houston – Houston is in theory still in the playoff race; while the offense is formidable, the defense is still inconsistent. New England is a team that never seems to let up though a win here really will not impact their playoff position, Patriots win 24 – 21.
Pittsburgh at Miami – The Dolphins are another team technically in the playoff hunt but need miracles at this point starting with a win here. Pittsburgh has been doing their part to get into the playoffs but need help, they must win here though to have any chance, Steelers win 28 – 17.
New York Giants at Minnesota – The Giants have been up and down all season with issues on both sides of the ball. Minnesota will be trying to win to assure a first round bye with a possible shot at home field advantage throughout, Vikings win 31 – 24.
San Francisco at St Louis – St Louis has a stranglehold on the first pack in the draft that they will not be putting at risk here particularly with Jackson ailing. San Francisco is playing for average, which is a step up from their recent history, Forty-niners win 24 – 10.
Green Bay at Arizona – Green Bay looks like they will be playing this game in consecutive weeks, which gives them no reason to expose their playbook. The same argument applies to Arizona in a game that will essentially be a scrimmage before the real event, Cardinals win 21 – 17.
Baltimore at Oakland – Oakland has been very dangerous at home to east coast teams but the offense depends on the running game, which does not match up well here. Baltimore simply needs to win to make the playoffs; they should manage that, Ravens win 24 – 14.
Philadelphia at Dallas – The Cowboys are playing well but the offensive line is not back to full health and Romo has issues with pressure. Philadelphia has big play potential on any play and an active defensive scheme that matches well here, Eagles win 28 – 24.
Kansas City at Denver – The Chiefs have an opportunity to knock a division rival out of the playoffs but that seems unlikely based on their talent level. Denver has to win and will need some help for the playoffs, a loss would reprise last season’s collapse, Broncos win 24 – 21.
Washington at San Diego – Washington has not played which much focus, their offensive line is makeshift and the offense lacks weapons. San Diego should win this game even though they rate to be resting starters early and often, Chargers win 20 – 10.
Tennessee at Seattle – Seattle has problems with their pass defense and the offensive line is bad but there has also been poor effort here. Tennessee has some problems in the defensive secondary as well but effort is not one of their issues, Titans win 24 – 10.
New York Jets at Cincinnati – The Bengals are unlikely to have anything to play for here a win is unlikely to help them much but a loss might and this could be their first round playoff opponent. For New York, it is win and in the playoffs, Jets win 21 – 17.
New England - Jacksonville secondary is porous and Pats have the aerial attack to take advantage. On the other side Jacksonville doesn’t have the ball control ground game to control the time of posession battle needed to keep the Pat attack in check. Patriots by double digits.
Oakland (+)(ML): This one should be relatively high scoring, and be decided by single digits either way - making for a nice Money Line value play. Both teams have schemes they can expoit offensively.
Also Likes: Philadelphia
In week fifteen, we turned in a reasonable straight up result, coming in at 11 – 5; against the spread, the results were down at 5 – 9 – 2. The season record is 155 – 69 straight up and 122 – 98 – 4 against the spread. (Line results are taken against the line available to me on Tuesday evening when I make my final choices.)
I participate in a pick’em league and these choices reflect the picks for my league selections; for my league I can make changes until the first game kicks off and will (rarely) based on last minute injury information. These are for amusement value only; please do not confuse these choices with the picks this site makes for betting purposes. I do not gamble on football for what seems like obvious reasons.
San Diego at Tennessee – While the Tennessee running game matches up very well this week; their overall pass defense is the Achilles heel. San Diego is playing to lock up a first round bye; they will need to play well to do it this week, Chargers win 27 – 24.
Buffalo at Atlanta – The Bills have number of injury problems and are playing with effort but the talent level is not sufficient. Atlanta has certainly had their injury problems also at certain key positions but they are getting some people back, Atlanta wins 20 – 10.
Baltimore at Pittsburgh – Baltimore is playing well but needs a win against a division rival on the road and they have problems in the defensive secondary. Pittsburgh has been up and down, they match up potentially well this week, Steelers win 27 – 24.
Carolina at New York Giants – Carolina has been a disappointment, mostly because of their own inconsistency and mistakes. New York has also underperformed to expectations, particularly defensively where they have been giving up too many points, Giants win 21 – 17.
Kansas City at Cincinnati – The Chiefs have a number of consistency problems but their defense has been generally poor and the offense ineffective. Cincinnati has a good power running game which is the match up advantage this week, Bengals win 28 – 14.
Oakland at Cleveland – Oakland will have to figure out who will be playing quarterback this week, it looks like Russell may get the nod. Cleveland has won two in a row and showed some offense last week and quality special teams play, Browns win 17 – 10.
Seattle at Green Bay – The Seahawks have been genuinely horrible the past few weeks, with inept offense and a defense that seems unable to tackle. Green Bay took a tough loss last week, their offense played well but the defense played soft at times, Packers win 28 – 10.
Houston at Miami – Houston travels to Miami after a lackluster effort last week; the running game is disappearing as an option and they cannot afford to be one-dimensional. The Dolphins are playing well but will need to take better care of the ball; Dolphins win 24 – 20.
Jacksonville at New England – The Jaguars have had extra time to prepare for this game but it is not enough time to fix their mediocre pass defense. New England has a number of injuries to contend with but the matchups still favor them, Patriots win 28 – 21.
Tampa Bay at New Orleans – Tampa Bay is coming off a one game winning streak, which seems likely to be as long as it gets this season. New Orleans lost for the time this season but still need to win to lock up home field advantage, Saints win 35 – 14.
St Louis at Arizona – The Rams are looking secure the first pick in the draft (Suh) and seem unlikely to complicate the picture this week. Arizona has clinched the division and their only chance for a bye is theoretical at this point, Cardinals win 28 – 10.
Detroit at San Francisco – Detroit is on the road to west coast, who gets the starts a quarterback is not at all clear but it is not going to matter. San Francisco has not been consistent but they have some bright spots, Forty-niners win 24 – 10.
Denver at Philadelphia – Denver needs to win but have been inconsistent, they have settled for too many field goals as opposed to touchdowns. The Eagles are inconsistent but generally play well in December; they need to avoid turnovers here, Eagles win 24 – 20.
New York Jets at Indianapolis – The Jets have a very good defense particularly against the pass and that matchup looks good, their offense struggles. The Colts have had extra rest for this game, and should be playing at near their full strength, Colts win 28 – 21.
Dallas at Washington – Washington has a number of weaknesses including the burden of what appears to be a lame-duck coach. Dallas has the talent to make the playoffs but they suffer odd letdowns at times, they need to focus on this game, Cowboys win 27 – 17.
Minnesota at Chicago – Chicago is a poor team, the defense is ineffective the offense bad in almost all phases. Minnesota may be wearing down a bit, the defensive secondary is average and the offensive line play flat but against this opponent, Vikings win 28 – 10.
SEATTLE - Despite the loss of Burleson for the ‘Hawks this is a tough match-up for the Buc’s secondary. Seattle should be able to move the ball over the top. On the other side Tampa has a rookie QB in a tough road venue. Seattle by 17.
ARIZONA - Big number, but Cardinals have excellent fundamental match-up’s to exploit here. Lions missing key players on both sides. We’ll call the Cards by 17.
ALSO LIKES: Cincinatti (+), San Francisco (+)
Indianapolis at Jacksonville – Defensively Jacksonville has problems in the secondary and poor tackling; the offense is inconsistent. How many players will Indianapolis be resting at this point is not at all clear yet as long as Manning and the receiver corps are though Colts win 24 – 20.
Dallas at New Orleans – The Cowboys are not a team that seems to handle ether pressure or adversity very well and they are looking at both as their season may be disappearing. New Orleans has struggled a bit but plays very well at home, Saints win 35 – 24.
Arizona at Detroit – Detroit is not a particularly good team playing their fourth good team in a row, with predictable results. Arizona will dominate any team that cannot get pressure on Warner or cover, this week’s opponent can do neither, Cardinals win 28 – 14.
Atlanta at New York Jets – The Falcons have considerable injury issues and are not a particularly good road team. The Jets running game should do well against the Atlanta defensive front as their offensive line is playing well, Jets win 24 – 17.
New England at Buffalo – Buffalo plays well at home but their offensive line is patchwork; the defense has been surprisingly effective. New England is still a solid offensive team; the defense however has been inconsistent and wearing down late in games, Patriots win 21 – 20.
Chicago at Baltimore – The Bears are still offensively challenged, the offensive line can not block for either the run or pass and the defense has injuries. Baltimore is playing for a post-season berth; their deep secondary is vulnerable but not so much this week, Ravens win 28 – 17.
Cleveland at Kansas City – Kansas City is not particularly good in any aspect of the game right now they lead the NFL in turnovers, not a good stat. Cleveland has had some extra time to prepare and have figured out that Cribbs is their best weapon, Browns win 17 – 13.
Houston at St Louis – The Rams may have worn down Jackson who is their only effective offensive threat; the defense is terrible. Houston has an explosive offensive and the deep passing game should be effective this week, Texans win 28 – 14.
Miami at Tennessee – Miami after losing their most productive offensive weapon is playing to their strengths, a good running game and an improving defense. Tennessee runs well but also defends the run, which gives them the edge this week, Titans win 27 – 20.
San Francisco at Philadelphia – The Forty-niners are a dangerous team in that the defense plays well and the offense while unspectacular is productive. Philadelphia is playing well but they still tend to have let downs after big wins and need to be careful here, Eagles win 24 – 21.
Cincinnati at San Diego – Cincinnati needs a better second option in the passing game and better pass protection from the offensive line. San Diego does not really match up all that well this week and will need all of their weapons, Chargers win 28 – 24.
Oakland at Denver – The Raiders are down to Frye at quarterback (Russell is still on the bench), who probably will not help their offense, the running game will probably get the focus. Denver is not a team that is well equipped to play from behind, not likely a problem this week, Broncos win 24 – 14.
Green Bay at Pittsburgh – Green Bay has been adapting to a new defensive scheme this season and now are one of the league leaders. Pittsburgh has had a few extra days to prepare for this game a lot will depend upon improvement in line play this week, Steelers win 24 – 21.
Tampa Bay at Seattle – The Buccaneers are looking at possibly the first pick in the draft next season a trip to the west coast is not likely to help. Seattle has been up and down but they are the better team this week, Seahawks win 24 – 10.
Minnesota at Carolina – Carolina has a good pass defense but the offensive play has been uneven and injuries have been a problem. Minnesota has been one of the healthier teams and good offensive balance, Vikings win 24 – 14.
New York Giants at Washington – The Redskins have been producing points offensively, but giving up too many defensively. New York has been up and down but are fighting to stay in the playoff race, the defense will need to step up, Giants win 28 – 21.
GREEN BAY A Play - Packers have nice situational match-up advantages here: Rodgers has been red-hot running this pass oriented offense, while Chicago has been vulnerable in the secondary; GB has been vulnerable in pass protection, however Chicago one of the worst teams in the league at putting pressure on the opposing QB. On the other side of the ball Packers have a pretty solid secondary, which does not bode well for Chicago’s league leading interception machine. Pack by 10.
SAN DIEGO (ML)(+): Chargers playing with confidence at a high level down the stretch… vibes from Dallas indicate coach Phillips is feeling the pressure. This shapes up to be a damn good game, both teams have advantages they can exploit, but we won’t be surprised at all if San Diego pulls off the road upset.
In week thirteen, we turned in an average straight up result, coming in at 10 – 6; and against the spread, the results was the inverse coming in at 6 – 10. The season record is 132 – 60 straight up and 106 – 84 – 2 against the spread. (Line results are taken against the line available to me on Tuesday evening when I make my final choices.)
I participate in a pick’em league and these choices reflect the picks for my league selections; for my league I can make changes until the first game kicks off and will (rarely) based on last minute injury information. These are for amusement value only; please do not confuse these choices with the picks this site makes for betting purposes. I do not gamble on football you need only look at last week’s results to understand why.
Pittsburgh at Cleveland – Cleveland played a solid game last week against a good opponent but still came up short, and probably will again. Pittsburgh has been ineffective defensively and, at this point, despite injuries they still have more talent this week, Steelers win 21 – 17.
New Orleans at Atlanta – The Falcons offense has been crippled by key injuries; both Ryan and Turner may be back this week but that is not likely to be enough. New Orleans close game last week should serve to refocus them, Saints win 35 – 20.
Detroit at Baltimore – For Detroit the status of Stafford is unclear and their defense gives up more points faster than anyone else in the NFL. Baltimore is coming off a short week, they should still dominate this week on both sides of the ball, Ravens win 24 – 10.
Buffalo at Kansas City – The Chiefs have been ineffective offensively, benching Cassel had no positive effect but it may have a lingering negative one. Buffalo has had an extra few days to prepare for this game and rest up, Bills win 20 – 17.
Carolina at New England – Carolina matches up reasonably well as they have a good running game and a decent pass defense. New England has played well at home and should get back on track here assuming Brady is ready to go, Patriots win 24 – 17.
Green Bay at Chicago – The Bears probably have the worst offensive line in the league, and defensively injuries are mounting up. The Green Bay defense should dominate and the offense will have ample opportunities, Packers win 28 – 10.
Cincinnati at Minnesota – Cincinnati is essentially a running team, which may be difficult in a dome environment on the road. Minnesota has to compensate for the loss of Henderson to their defense but the offense should get back on track here, Vikings win 24 – 21.
Denver at Indianapolis – The Broncos have a balanced offense and a top five defense and will need to take care of the ball. Indianapolis has been getting more balance in their offense and the defense is getting healthier, Colts win 24 – 21.
Seattle at Houston – Seattle has issues along the offensive line that has led to inconsistent offensive performance. Houston has lost their last four in a row despite having one of the more dynamic offenses in the league, Texans win 28 – 21.
Miami at Jacksonville – The Dolphins have a solid ground game and a young defense that has been up and down Jacksonville is a run-based team and will have their work cut out; the defense is decent against the run, Jaguars win 24 – 20.
New York Jets at Tampa Bay – Tampa Bay has a rookie quarterback and the issues that come with that and the second worse run defense in the NFL. New York has the best running offense in the league, which should have no problems here, Jets win 24 – 14.
Washington at Oakland – Washington defense is solid, the offense inconsistent but they seem to find new ways to lose games late every week. Oakland is playing much better with Gradkowski at quarterback, not that they are good team, Raiders win 20 – 17.
St Louis at Tennessee – The Rams are playing out the string staying in contention for the first choice in the draft next year. The Titans are not a team that can play well from behind which should not be an issue this week, Titans win 28 – 10.
San Diego at Dallas – Dallas has a great deal of talent that seems to underachieve; that makes the coaching suspect. San Diego is playing very well offensively and while the defense has some fundamental issues, Chargers win 28 – 24.
Philadelphia at New York Giants – The Giants are a difficult team to figure, injuries have been a factor but the defensive secondary has been erratic. Philadelphia looks like they will have Jackson back; he will be needed this week, Eagles win 21 – 17.
Arizona at San Francisco – San Francisco is a solid team but lack depth in spots and have had a number of injury issues. Arizona has had a dynamic offense but the defense is starting to play well in its own right, Cardinals win 27 – 24
COLLEGE FOOTBALL PICKS:
RUTGERS A+ Play - Ought to be a pretty good game, but when it’s all said and done we have Rutgers winning at home by a 6 to 10 point margin. Good line value play laying small number on home team. Emotion will be high on both sides, but Rutgers simply better on both sides of the ball.
CALIFORNIA - Bears were a disappointment this year, but they seem to have put it together down the stretch. They have the talent, and catch Huskies off emotional game vs WSU. We’re laying the points.
NFL PICKS:
NEW ENGLAND DOWNGRADED to NO PLAY - Pats are vulnerable in the secondary, but this is a rookie QB, and no Ronnie Brown in the wildcat helps. Miami vulnerable in the secondary, and Brady will exploit that. (UPDATE 12/6/09 - This contest has been taken off the board at many betting venues due to “funny” money coming in on Miami. In addition, Brady may not play due to injury - the safe bet is to pass if you haven’t already hit it.)
CINCINNATI (UPDATE): Detroit doesn’t have the pass rush to pressure Carson Palmer, and they don’t have an answer for OchoCinco. Bengals defense is especially staunch vs the run. Bengals by 17.
TENNESSEE (+): The secondary is healthy, and that has made a world of difference, suddenly the D is respectable again. Titans won’t blitz, and know how to minimize Peyton’s strengths. This should be a TD game.
The Colts are catching a lot of criticism for pulling their starters and I was thinking about the situation and a rather unlikely contrary view. As Rod Serling used to say in his introduction to the Twilight Zone… “We present for your consideration….”
This may seem rather Machiavellian but has anyone considered that the Colts might think that having the Jets in the playoffs might be beneficial to the Colts? (At this point any number of Patriot fans have started nodding their heads, and Bill Polian haters everywhere.) Beating the Jets would have increased the prospects of both Pittsburgh a team the Colts probably wouldn’t be thrilled to see in the playoffs and Baltimore who would be a less desirable opponent than the potential Jets. This also works out really well because the Bengals face the Jets this week and could play them next week as well, if they play conservatively and lose they are very likely the fourth seed and the winner of their playoff game is very likely to end up in Indianapolis as opposed to say the Patriots who instead (if they win) would get San Diego. Not likely in my view that this is really why the Colts did lose but this certainly would be the best draw the Colts could get in the playoffs. If the conditions of contest are set up in such a way that losing to a specific opponent gives you an advantage the problem is with the conditions of contest not the person who takes advantage of it. It is at least mildly insane to expect people (or teams) to act against their long term best interests.
The reason why the Colts were wrong to do this is that the offense is timing based and the more time they aren’t playing at full game speed the worse their timing is. Historically they typically start the first game of the season slowly and don’t play all that well coming off bye weeks. The longer they rest their offensive players the longer it will take to get them back in sync during the playoffs. However it makes perfect sense for them to rest their defense, both because of the injuries there but also because the defense doesn’t have the same issues of timing between specific players. (Note that the Colts won the Super Bowl they did not have a first round bye, coincidence, perhaps not.)