Football Forecasters

COLLEGE FOOTBALL PICKS:

PENN STATE - A Play - The Wildcats are facing the numero uno defense AND offense in the Big 10.  Lions just faced a similar offensive scheme in Michigan, and pounded the crap out of em… they won’t have any problems handling the Wildcats version of the zone read.  PSU by 30.

GEORGIA TECH - Vandy gave up more than 400 yards to the gamecocks and lost a very emotional and physical game, now they have to face the best offense they’ve seen this year.  Tech by 24.

OREGON (ml)(+) - Ducks will be up in Eugene.  Face-off of top two defenses.  Since loss to underrated Boise State the Ducks have been sharp.  We’ll call Oregon to win outright as our MoneyLine play of the week.

Also Likes: Northern Illinois, Oklahoma St. (+), Michigan, Boston College

NFL PICKS:

NY GIANTS - A+ pick:  Giants coming in off two non-division losses, they’ll be nothing if not focused.  Philly is vulnerable to the run, and relies too much on a big play offense and DeSean Jackson - that won’t work against this defense.  NY can run when they set their minds to it, and they should be able to put up 150+ against this run defense.  Philly off a Monday night road win, and that’s always a tough spot to play from the following week.  Our call is New York by ten.

CHICAGO - Cleveland is rebuilding, have NO playmakers, and are at odds with what was their QB of the future.  Da Bears off two road losses have the will, and tools to put forth a good effort.  Chicago by 17.

Also Likes:  I can’t quite bring myself to hit them yet, but Oakland is getting 16.5 at San Diego - and they actually match-up pretty well here.

In week six our straight up result was 8-5 a slight improvement over last week and a very respectable 8 – 4 -1 against the spread. The season record is 72 – 31 straight up and 62 – 40 - 1 against the spread. I take no real credit for the results against the spread so please do not assume that I know anything.

I probably need to explain how my spread results are calculated. I pick games on Mondays and pull down the odds at Yahoo.com; Tuesday evening, that becomes what I use to judge against. (I move my scores on any games where my number agrees with the spread so there is always a difference as of that date. Occasionally there is no line available on Tuesday (Rams at the Lions this week) so I will use the line on that game from the weekend prior (Detroit -3.5) which often will change dramatically. I review the Wednesday practice reports before posting the results and sometimes (rarely) make changes at that point though I do not recheck the line.

I participate in a pick’em league and these choices reflect the picks for my league selections; for my league I can make changes until the first game kicks off and will (rarely) based on last minute injury information. These are for amusement value only; please do not confuse these choices with the picks this site makes for betting purposes. I do not gamble on football and if you look at last week’s results, you can understand why.

Denver at Baltimore – Denver is essentially a running team and needs that to setup their passing game; their defense has been first rate. While both teams are coming off bye weeks Baltimore had more to fix, like their run defense, Ravens win 21 – 20.

Houston at Buffalo – The Bills have been short-handed but they are playing with a lot of effort, particularly on defense. Houston has many offensive weapons though their running game is limited; their defense is suspect but has talent, Texans win 24 – 14.

Cleveland at Chicago – Cleveland has no demonstrable offense capabilities at all; the talent at all of the skill positions is well below average. The Chicago offensive line is not good and the defense is missing some pieces but they have enough, Bears win 28 – 10.

Seattle at Dallas – The Seahawks do not travel well and is coming off their bye week, they hope to have their offensive line healthy but that is not likely enough. Dallas may have found a pass rush, if so it will be just in time, and they have enough offense, Cowboys win 28 – 17.

St Louis at Detroit – The Rams are holding on to the longest active losing streak in the league and would like to end that this week, unlikely. Detroit is still not a particularly good team but they are playing hard coming off a bye, Lions win 24 – 17.

San Francisco at Indianapolis – San Francisco has limited offensive weapons but Smith seemed to make better use of them last week, an improvement they need. Indianapolis keeps moving on, the defense is playing extremely well and the offense is still great, Colts win 31 – 21.

Miami at New York Jets – The Dolphins have built their offense around the running game and the defense can stop the run. New York is also focused on the run, and have something to prove in the rematch, look for a scaled back game plan, Jets win 24 – 17.

New York Giants at Philadelphia – The Eagles are inconsistent and they may be without Westbrook, still a significant part of this offense. The New York defense has been exposed in the secondary, a problem in this game to be considered, Giants win 24 – 21.

Jacksonville at Tennessee – Tennessee coming off their bye week is going to be hard to predict, changes are expected but what is unclear. Jacksonville is also coming off a bye, and they have concerns of a more normal scope, like being healthy, Jaguars win 24 – 21.

Oakland at San Diego – The Raiders are inconsistent in different ways every week; it is like watching a car wreck in slow motion. San Diego can move the ball offensively it is their defense which is suspect, Chargers win 28 – 10.

Carolina at Arizona – Carolina has been turning the ball over offensively; the defense has been good but is getting no help. Arizona has been an offensive force but the defense is starting to come around and can make some plays when needed, Cardinals win 31 – 14.

Minnesota at Green Bay – Minnesota has improved their offensive production but the defense has been less effective than expected and that may be a problem here. Green Bay has plenty of offense and they seem to be adjusting to the new defensive scheme, Packers win 28 – 24.

Atlanta at New Orleans – The Falcons are probably not as good as they are being given credit for and this will be a week where it shows. New Orleans is playing at a high offensive level but the defense has been a pleasant development, Saints win 35 – 24.

COLLEGE FOOTBALL PICKS   Three rather large dogs on the best bet picks slate this week, and our thinking is at least one will not only cover the number, they will outright win as a double digit dog:

OKLAHOMA STATE A PLAY - Cowboys still have an outside chance to win the big 12, and their starting to play like it.  Baylor’s hopes of a winning season went down with their star QB in the openor, they continue to suffer mounting injuries to the offensive unit.  Oklahoma State can score points, and Baylor will not be able to stay up.  Cowboys by 17-24.

MINNESOTA (+) - This should be a lower scoring game, which favors Minnesota to cover the generous number.

MISSISSIPPI STATE (+) - Nice spot here for the Bulldogs, Gators have Georgia on deck.  It will be rockin in Starkville, and they’ll give Florida ALL they can handle - easily staying withing the number.

IDAHO (+)(ML) - Absolutely no respect for the Vandals, this should be a FG game.

Also Likes: Clemson (+)

NFL Picks:

ATLANTA (+)(ML) - Other than players being rested, the bye week doesn’t really help a coach like Phillips.  Falcons playing smart football, adn they may outright win.  Both teams should be able to run, but give Atlanta slight edge in pass attack.

MIAMI (+)(ML) - The Saints run the ball a surprising high percentage of the time, and the Fish have a very good run defense.  Look for Miami to establish the running game, and keep this one surprisingly close.

UPDATE 10/25/09 8:50am - CINCINATTI - I’ve been getting hammered posting these late updates, and almost decided not to update this one.  But I hit the Bengals for a 4% play this morning, and generally try and publish every play we’re on.    Like the focused home team, off a loss, heading into a bye, and Bears NT is OUT.

Also Likes: Carolina

In week six our straight up result was 8-6 the worse of the season thus far and against the spread we matched our worst one week result going 6 – 8. This week there are only thirteen games to pick and we will try to improve on the win numbers. The season record is 64 – 26 straight up and 54 – 36 against the spread. I take no real credit for the results against the spread so please do not assume that I know anything.

I participate in a pick’em league and these choices reflect the picks for my league selections; for my league I can make changes until the first game kicks off and will (rarely) based on last minute injury information. These are for amusement value only; please do not confuse these choices with the picks this site makes for betting purposes. I do not gamble on football and if you look at last week’s results, you can understand why.

Green Bay at Cleveland – The Browns have a number of problems generating offense quarterback play is only part of the issue here. Green Bay has a solid offense but their defense has been inconsistent, not an issue this week, Packers win 28 – 14.

San Francisco at Houston – Houston has been an up and down team, and have had problems when Schaub is under pressure. San Francisco, which has a good defense, is coming off their bye week and an embarrassing loss; they have Gore back offensively, Forty-niners win 24 – 21.

Indianapolis at St Louis – The Rams went to overtime last week on the road, they have limited talent and numerous injuries, it looks like a long season. Indianapolis is coming off their bye week and may be getting back some key defensive players, Colts win 28 – 10.

San Diego at Kansas City – Kansas City has limited offensive potential and their defense continues to be inconsistent. San Diego is traveling after a short week but they have enough offensive weapons for this task, Chargers win 28 – 21.

Minnesota at Pittsburgh – The Vikings are undefeated but face their toughest matchup and will need to play a solid all around game. Pittsburgh has not been good at putting opponents away late in games which could be a problem here, Steelers win 28 – 21.

New England at Tampa Bay – The Tampa Bay defense is in transition and has been giving up points at a rate that is about to get even worse. New England is getting their passing game back in high gear and are unlikely to let up here, Patriots win 35 – 10.

Buffalo at Carolina – The Bills are looking like the walking wounded; plagued by injuries on both sides of the ball it is difficult to establish consistency. Carolina has turned the ball over more than any other team but have finally established their running game, Panthers win 20 – 10.

New York Jets at Oakland – The Raiders are coming off a rare win and a good defensive effort but their lack of offensive consistency is still an issue. Sanchez has looked like a rookie the past couple of days, the running game and a good defense should be the plan, Jets win 24 – 10.

Atlanta at Dallas – Dallas has had an extra week to prepare and will need it as they have to resolve problems with execution on both sides of the ball. Atlanta has size on both lines and can get push, a key this week will be quarterback pressure, Falcons win 24 – 21.

Chicago at Cincinnati – The Bengals have been playing well defensively but they do not have a lot of depth and losing Odom will hurt their overall pass defense. Chicago has been successful when they avoid making turnovers, Bears win 24 – 20.

New Orleans at Miami – The Dolphins’ wildcat can be difficult to prepare for and the ground game can keep an opposing offense on the sidelines, likely the game plan this week. New Orleans appears to have everything working on both sides of the ball, Saints win 28 – 21.

Arizona at New York Giants – Arizona has played unusually well on the road this season but this is a significant test; the defense is improved and will need to generate turnovers. New York will need to generate pressure on Warner but have the weapons, Giants win 28 – 20.

Philadelphia at Washington – The Redskins offense has been unable to produce points or generate any offensive consistency wasting very good defensive play by that unit. Philadelphia can be wildly inconsistent but generally focus for division opponents, Eagles win 24 – 14.

COLLEGE PICKS:

HOUSTON - Big Al’s Pounder of the week is an A+ rated pick!  Here’s why Houston will pound Tulane - Cougars have a prolific pass attack with QB Case Keenum and the Green Wave cannot defend the pass.  Tulane has presented themselves fairly well against rush based attacks, when they can establish the run themselves; but against teams that can throw the ball they get crushed.  On the other side Tulane can’t keep up in a higher scoring affair - and this will be that.  We have Houston putting up 41-48 points, and Tulane fielding 17-24. We’ll lay 5% of bankroll on Houston to cover the modest number.

GEORGIA - Vanderbilt has struggled defending the run this year, and the Bulldogs should be able to control the trenches in this one on both sides.

IDAHO - Who puts up the Vandals as a top rated pick?   We called on em last week as a ML dog on the road, and we like a solid Idaho team again this week to dominate a Hawaii squad that is struggling to find an identity.

Also Likes:  UCLA (+), Miss St., Oklahoma St.

NFL PICKS:

NEW ENGLAND - The Patriots pass attack is starting to come around, and figures to get a lot better quickly against what is surprisingly one of the poorest pass defenses in the league.  Look for Randy Moss to get a wake up call here - he should have a very big day against this toothless defense. 

PITTSBURGH - In the last two games the Steelers offensive line figured out how to run block, and against the lowly run defense of the Browns that should continue.  Polamalu is back for the Steelers, and the Browns have had trouble throwing the ball downfield.

BALTIMORE (ML) - Yes, we’re rolling with the Ravens again as a top rated pick.  Off consecutive losses they should have no trouble being focused for this one, and they catch the undefeated Vikings in a nice “letdown” spot.  Also, consider the Vikings are somewhat susceptible to screens and vulnerable to good tight ends, and Ravens OC Cameron loves to throw to the TE and RB’s.

UPDATE 10/18/09 12:45pm EST: JACKSONVILLE - They should dominate the Rams, there’s some value in the pick laying less than double digits. 

Also Likes: NY Jets

In week five I came back to earth with a respectable 9 – 5 straight up but losing against the spread with a 6 – 8 week. That moves the season record to 56 – 20 straight up and 48 – 28 against the spread for the season which is still unexplainable. I take no real credit for the results against the spread so please do not assume that I know anything.

I participate in a pick’em league and these choices reflect the picks for my league selections; for my league I can make changes until the first game kicks off and will (rarely) based on last minute injury information. These are for amusement value only; please do not confuse these choices with the picks this site makes for betting purposes. I do not gamble on football and if you look at last week’s results, you can understand why.

Baltimore at Minnesota – Baltimore has lost two games in a row through sloppy play and will have to turn that around to have a chance here. Minnesota can stop the run game and rush the passer, something they will need to do consistently this week, Vikings win 24 – 20.

Carolina at Tampa Bay – The Buccaneers are struggling on both sides of the ball but the defense in particular is giving up big plays. Carolina is not playing well and Delhomme in particular is struggling but this team can produce big plays on offense, Panthers win 21 – 14.

Houston at Cincinnati – Houston has an offense that does not maximize their opportunities, particularly on the road. Cincinnati has been playing well along the offensive line and their defense seems to have come together, some risk of a let down here still, Bengals win 24 – 21.

Cleveland at Pittsburgh – Cleveland won one of the ugliest games of this or any other season last week and will need to play much better just to keep this one close. The Pittsburgh defense clearly misses Polamalu or something and need to tighten up their play, Steelers win 28 – 10.

Detroit at Green Bay – The Lions are a better team than their record indicates and much better than last season but still a work in process. Green Bay is coming off a bye week after a poor performance so they have focused on this game plan, Packers win 24 – 17.

St Louis at Jacksonville – St Louis has been awful, scoring the fewest points in the NFL and allowing the second most, it is not getting better anytime soon. Jacksonville is inconsistent on offense and simply bad defensively, not a problem this week, Jaguars win 28 – 14.

Kansas City at Washington – The Chiefs have had some significant defensive lapses in every game and limited offensive firepower. Washington has been inconsistent offensively generally dismal in terms of scoring, their defense has kept them alive, Redskins win 20 – 14.

New York Giants at New Orleans Saints – The Saints are one of the best teams in the NFL and playing well on defense. New York is better defensively and just as potent on offense in close games the best offensive and defensive lines control, Giants win 20 – 17.

Arizona at Seattle – Arizona is not a good road team and their defense is not playing consistently, factors that rate to be a problem this week. Seattle has their receiver corps healthy and Hasselbeck is back which make this a very dynamic offense, Seahawks win 31 – 24.

Philadelphia at Oakland – The Raiders are managing to look worse each week if that is possible, their schedule is not helping much either though. Philadelphia could get caught looking past this game at the three division games they have coming up next, Eagles win 24 – 17.

Buffalo at New York Jets – The Bills have still more injuries on their battered defensive team and the offense has been ineffective. The New York Jets have a good defense and a rather limited offensive game plan they rely, good enough for most weeks, Jets win 24 – 14.

Tennessee at New England – The Titans are not as bad as their record might indicate, but they are not getting any favors from the schedule makers either. New England is uncharacteristically missing offensive opportunities and the defense is not in synch, Patriots win 24 – 17.

Chicago at Atlanta – The Bears are coming off their bye week and will be getting back some important defensive players and they will need them. Last week Atlanta played a very good game dominating a very good defense, Atlanta wins 28 – 21.

Denver at San Diego – San Diego has had the bye week to regroup and try to heal up, the defense really misses Williams though. Denver keeps winning and the defense is playing at a very high level, the offense seems to be just good enough, doing what it has to, Broncos win 21 – 20.

College Picks:

Thursday Night play - NEBRASKA - winner

NAVY A+ pick - Off big win with rival Air Force, we still like em to roll against overmatched Rice, who have a very weak defense and a banged up O-line.  Forget the recent trend data, this is a very tough spot for the Owls; due to injuries and without their leading scorer, Rice will be going with a freshman at QB - against one of the more disciplined defenses in the country.  In addition to a tough injury situation, we have a fundamental match-up advantage with a top rushing team averaging over 230 rushing yards per game, going against a defense giving up over 160 rushing yards a contest AND 40 points a game!  Look for Navy to win by 17-24 points.

IDAHO (ML)(+) - We have had success hitting the Spartans as home dogs, but this is the type of situation where they deliver a classic let down - and the Vandals are damn good, they may out right win.

WISCONSIN (+) - OSU offense is too conservative - Too many points.  Badgers seem to always come through in spots like this.

NFL Picks:

BALTIMORE - Nice situation play.  Consider Ravens off frustrating loss, where they probably outplayed New England, coming home to face a division foe off back to back division wins.  Cincinnati D is playing well, which has been the difference for them thus far, but Baltimore offense is potent and very well balanced. 

CAROLINA - Off a bye, catching the low fling Skins in another nice situation. Panthers should get their act together for at least one week.  Don’t see where enough Redskins points are going to come from.

DENVER (ML)(+) - At home we prefer taking the Bronco’s and the points in this one, which should be a great game to watch, decided by a FG either way.   Denver defense is disciplined, and Patriot’s offense is still sputtering a bit - they were helped considerably last week by the zebra’s.

Thursday Night College Football

NEBRASKA - Huskers have the defense, and running game to control the clock and win on the road.  They should win this one by 7-10 points. We like them as a B-rated, four percent of bankroll play.

In the NFL we’ll be hitting BALTIMORE, laying single digits, as a strong play this Sunday - if Cedric Benson can’t go this one may jump to double digits - so we’re hitting it early.

For week four the results were 11 – 3 straight up and 9 – 5 against the spread. That moves the season record to 47 – 15 straight up and 42 – 20 against the spread for the season. I cannot clearly account for these results but please do not assume that I know anything.

I participate in a pick’em league and these choices reflect those picks though my league selections are not be finalized until the first game kicks off and I do make changes (rarely) based on last minute injury information. These are for amusement value only; please do not confuse these choices with the picks this site makes for betting purposes. I do not gamble on football and if you read this column regularly, you will understand why.

Cincinnati at Baltimore – The Bengals were a bit flat last week and are playing their third division game in as many weeks and on the road. Baltimore is playing at a high level and their offensive line play has been very good, the defense may be showing its age a bit, Ravens win 28 – 14.

Cleveland at Buffalo – Cleveland changed quarterbacks but the results were the same; the defense is leading the NFL in yards given up. Buffalo has a banged up defensive unit and the offensive line is hurting which has created many inconsistencies, Bills win 28 – 21.

Washington at Carolina – Washington is a talented team but they are not playing together very well at this point, statistically they look a lot better than they play. Carolina has injury issues but sloppy play has cost them more the bye week may have settled them down, Panthers win 24 -14.

Pittsburgh at Detroit – The injury to the Lion’s rookie quarterback Matt Stafford may keep him out of this game, perhaps a mixed blessing if it happens. Pittsburgh has not been very good at putting teams away in the fourth quarter, Steelers win 28 – 14.

Dallas at Kansas City – The Chiefs are a rebuilding team that is simply not very good on either side of the ball at this point. Dallas has been very inconsistent, they can play at a high level but make critical turnovers and penalties at the most inopportune times, Cowboys win 28 – 14.

Minnesota at St Louis – The Rams are looking at a very long season, they were rebuilding to begin with and injuries have further crippled them. Minnesota is undefeated and have been playing solid but have to watch for a possible let down, Vikings win 28 – 14.

Oakland at New York Giants – Oakland has been offensively inept at an almost record setting pace so far this season. So far New York has been one of the more consistent teams in the NFL and they seem to be getting better, the Giants win 27 – 10.

Tampa Bay at Philadelphia – Tampa Bay is starting a rookie quarterback and has a limited supporting cast and a bad defense. Philadelphia is coming off of a bye week they needed to get some key players (McNabb and Westbrook) back, Eagles win 28 – 13.

Atlanta at San Francisco – The Falcons are coming off their bye week and traveling cross-country to a very tough venue to play at. The San Francisco defense is the real thing and the offense is coming along even without Frank Gore, forty-niners win 24 – 21.

Houston at Arizona – Houston has a number of ways to put points on the board offensively but they can give up points almost as quickly. Arizona also has played unevenly this season but have there own set of weapons and a bye week to get ready, Cardinals win 28 -21.

New England at Denver – The Broncos have been a huge surprise by fielding the stingiest defense in the NFL after having the thirtieth ranked defense last season. New England is getting better after a rocky start, Patriots win 24 – 17.

Jacksonville at Seattle – Seattle has injury issues and may be getting some players back who and how many will matter for this game. Jacksonville has discovered a passing game and the result has been wins, the Jaguars win 24 – 21.

Indianapolis at Tennessee – Tennessee has four losses and their pass defense has been very soft, not a good thing facing Peyton Manning. Indianapolis has been playing better against the run but their offense is still the strength here, Colts win 27 – 21.

New York Jets at Miami – The New York defense is capable of being dominating against good offenses and control field position but have offensive limitations. The Dolphins have looked good in earlier games and very good last week but are still developing as a team, Dolphins win 27 – 24.

Friday Night Pick:

PITTSBURGH - If this is a lower scoring affair Pittsburgh has the defense to contain Louisville and they’ll win by 7, if it’s a higher scoring affair the Panthers offense can be explosive and they’ll win by 17.  Either way Pitt wins.

Saturday College Picks:

IOWA - defense will put up points, and hold Arkansas St to between 7-14 points.  We’re not worried about a letdown off their big win at Penn State, Iowa wins at home by 30.

UCLA (ML)(+) - Sleeper team in the Pac-10 are the Bruins, and they may be the better team getting points, we certainly think at Stanford they can pull off the upset.

SOUTH FLORIDA - Good defense and too much speed for Orangemen.  Bulls by 14.

Also Likes: Miami (+), Wisconsin (+), Ohio St.

NFL Picks:

SAN FRANCISCO -  Forty-niners playing at a high level, and they have an identity, Rams do not.  This is a division game, and Frisco looked damned good at Minnesota.  Niners by 13.

DENVER (ML) - Bronco’s catch Cowboys in a nice spot here - off consecutive high profile games. They have the defense too give Dallas a lot of trouble.  We’ll call the upset - Denver by 3.

MIAMI (ML) - They can surely run, and Buffalo doesn’t have the prolific pass attack to overwhelm that secondary.  It may be close but the Fish should notch their first win.

Update: CINCINNATI - Cleveland looks like a team in disarray, nice situational spot for the Bengals; who also have a fundamental matchup advantage with their power rushing attack vs porous Brown defense.

Update (Sunday 3:40am est): San Diego (+) - Ought to be a hell of a game, decided either way by a FG. Neither squad has been able to establish much of a rush attack this year, but both can move the ball effectively over the top. 

Also Likes: Tennessee, Green Bay (+)

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