Football Forecasters

For the third week in row we went 12 – 4 straight up with a very good 13 – 3 against the spread. The season record is 36 – 12 straight up and 33 – 15 against the spread for the season; if I had any sense at all I would quit for the season right now. Well, we are into the bye weeks now and double-digit results are less likely and frankly this rate can’t be maintained as much I would would like to believe it could.

I participate in a pick’em league and these choices reflect those picks though my league selections are not be finalized until the first game kicks off and I do make changes (rarely) based on last minute injury information. These are for amusement value only; please do not confuse these choices with the picks this site makes for betting purposes. I do not gamble on football and if you read this column regularly, you will understand why.

Baltimore at New England – The Patriots have some injury problems but more critically, the offensive line has not protected Brady very well. Baltimore has a very diverse and effective offense, the defense is still opportunistic but not dominating, Ravens win 24 – 20.

Detroit at Chicago – Detroit finally won one last week and played well offensively no turnovers and a very balanced game plan. Chicago has some key injury problems on defense but they have been effective offensively at critical times, Bears win 24 – 13.

Cincinnati at Cleveland – The Browns are ineffective offensively regardless of who is playing quarterback, defensively they are limited as well. Cincinnati has improved the play both the offensive and defensive lines and has found a running game, Bengals win 30 – 20.

Oakland at Houston – Oakland is one-dimensional offensively and undisciplined on both sides of the ball often stopping themselves, not a recipe for success. Houston has a variety of offensive weapons but their defense has been ineffective, Texans win 28 – 14.

Seattle at Indianapolis – The Seahawks have key injury problems both offensively and defensively and the team is not that deeply talented. Indianapolis has played very well offensively and good enough on defense, Colts win 28 – 20.

Tennessee at Jacksonville – The Jaguars have limited offensive options and defensively they have been inconsistent. Tennessee has had three tough losses but they have played some uncharacteristically soft defense they need to turn it around now, Titans win 24 – 17.

New York Giants at Kansas City – The Chiefs are rebuilding and it shows as their offense is inconsistent and their defense porous. The Giants have been playing well defensively and have found some receiving weapons, Giants win 28 – 10.

Tampa Bay at Washington – Tampa Bay is clearly in rebuilding mode, the defense particularly has been ineffective. Washington is a team that has played inconsistently on offense at the most inopportune times, Redskins win 21 – 17.

Buffalo at Miami – Buffalo has been competitive but each game seems to bring a new players to the Injured Reserv4e list. Miami will miss Pennington as the Chad Henne era starts, look for a liberal dose of the wildcat this week, Dolphins win 21 – 20.

New York Jets at New Orleans – The Jets have been playing up to their defensive talent with a stifling and active defense. New Orleans has been an offensive force for the past few seasons; the defense while not great is getting better, Saints win 31 – 21.

Dallas at Denver – Denver is surprisingly leading the NFL in scoring defense, which is more a function of their opposition than talent. Dallas has been inconsistent offensively and defensively but is still a talented team, Cowboys win 28 – 21.

St. Louis at San Francisco – The Rams have injury problems and some other essential issues along their offensive line that limit their prospects for scoring. San Francisco is a very good defensive team but offensive injuries are an issue, Forty-Niners win 34 – 14.

San Diego at Pittsburgh – San Diego still has significant injury issues particularly on defense and have not been tackling well. The Pittsburgh defense has been less than dominating and the running game ineffective but this is a home game, Steelers win 27 – 20.

Green Bay at Minnesota – Green Bay has played very inconsistently on defense and to have a chance here they will need the best defense they can play, difficult on the road. Minnesota has won without playing particularly well to date and need to step it up, Vikings win 21 – 20.

COLLEGE:

UNLV (A+ rated pick) - Far better team laying a FG at Wyoming, a team who is struggling on offense and starting a freshmen QB in this game. Rebels prolific spread offense gaining more than 400 ypg.  Don’t see the Cowboys matching points with them, though their defense is solid, it’s not “shutdown” caliber.  We have UNLV winning comfortably, by 10-13 points - and it could get ugly.

Clemson - Hosting #15 in the country TCU.  We like the Horned Frogs, but this is a very tough spot for them. Traveling across country and playing a big time program as a higher ranked team.  Clemson has superior talent on both sides of the ball.  Lay the points.

Pittsburgh - Traveling to an ACC foe who plays a very similiar brand of football, the Panthers simply play it better.  Wannstedt has a polished squad, they play well on the road, and they’ll win by 7.

Also Likes:  Navy, Stanford, Nebraska, California, Illinois (+), Arizona State (+)

NFL:

Chicago - Seattle banged up on offense (again), and will be without starting MLB Lofa Tatupu.  Look for Matt Forte to have a big day.  Nice fundamental matchups here for the Bears.

Green Bay - They were surprised by the Bengals at home, and should be focused here.  Rams dinged up on both sides of the ball in the trenches. Packers will be without LT Clifton, but Rams will not have the rushers to take advantage.  Lay the points.

Also Likes: Atlanta (+), Washington, Tennessee (+)

Last week we again went 12 – 4 straight up and a 10 – 6 against the spread duplicating our week one results but week two was a much tougher mark to hit. A number of upsets and last minute plays turned, or could have turned, several games at the last minute in week two. Our season record is 24 – 8 straight up and 20 – 12 against the spread for the season; those are both pretty high marks, more likely to go down than up.

I participate in a pick’em league and these choices reflect those picks though my final league selections are not be finalized until the first game kicks off and I do make changes (rarely) based on last minute injury information. These are for amusement value only; please do not confuse these choices with the picks this site makes for betting purposes. I do not gamble on football and if you read this column regularly, you will understand why.

Atlanta at New England – Atlanta has started out well this season, the defense is playing solid and the offense is well balanced but they have a big challenge this week. New England has issues handling pressure so far and Brady has been less than sharp, Patriots win 24 – 20.

Cleveland at Baltimore – Cleveland is in rebuilding mode and it shows on both sides of ball; this rates to be a long season. Baltimore has demonstrated that they indeed have an effective, well balanced offense, the defense is still aggressive if not dominating, Ravens win 24 – 10.

Washington at Detroit – The perpetually rebuilding Lions are making some progress, they play with good effort but not enough talent. Washington is struggling a bit to find offensive continuity but this week they should have enough, Redskins win 24 –20.

Green Bay at St. Louis – The Rams look to be down a lineman or two going into this contest and the defense is inconsistent and does not rush the passer well. Green Bay has some defensive personnel issues in their new scheme but the offense is fine, Packers win 24 – 14.

Jacksonville at Houston – Jacksonville has no real deep passing threat, which helps stifle their running game; and defensively their tackling has been poor. The Houston defense has been inconsistent, particularly in the passing game, not a big issue here though, Texans win 24 – 17.

Kansas City at Philadelphia – The Chiefs are rebuilding but the pieces don’t seem to be fitting together very well at this point. Philadelphia is probably still without McNabb but the remaining weapons should be sufficient, Eagles win 24 – 14.

San Francisco at Minnesota – San Francisco is playing very good defense overall and their offense has been situationally productive. Minnesota has played two rather lackluster games against mediocre opposition and will need play up to their talent level, Vikings win 24 – 21.

Tennessee at New York Jets – The Jets won an emotional game last week and their defense is playing well; the offense has been reasonably effective under the circumstances. Tennessee had a tough division loss and did not play well; Fisher will have them ready, Titans win 21 – 20.

New York Giants at Tampa Bay – Tampa Bay was once a solid defensive team but not so you would notice these days. The Giants are nicked up on defense but still have plenty of weapons and have established a solid offensive scheme, Giants win 30 – 20.

New Orleans at Buffalo – Buffalo has some significant injuries on both sides of the ball at this point are getting thin, not a good time draw the best offense in the league. New Orleans can apparently score whenever they want, Saints win 34 – 20.

Chicago at Seattle – Seattle is likely without Hasselbeck for this game, and have several other players nicked up on the defensive side of the ball as well. Chicago will need to have Cutler playing well and need to establish the running game early, Bears win 24 – 21.

Pittsburgh at Cincinnati – The Bengals are looking better than expected, the offensive line play has been solid and will be tested this week. Last week Pittsburgh lost on a last minute field goal and will be playing to make a point against a division foe, Steelers win 24 – 17.

Denver at Oakland – Oakland is not an untalented team but they often play undisciplined; their defense can be solid but they need to generate consistent offense. Denver has won two against marginal opposition but is playing better defensively than expected, Broncos win 21 – 20.

Miami at San Diego – Miami had a tough loss on Sunday night and now have to travel across country on a short week; perhaps the wildcat should be their hurry-up offense. San Diego is hurting but this is a deep team, Chargers win 28 – 20.

Indianapolis at Arizona – The Cardinals played well on the road and have a variety of offensive weapons but the defense is still soft. The Indianapolis defense played the equivalent of a double header on Monday but probably has enough of a pass rush left, Colts win 28 – 24.

Carolina at Dallas – The Carolina defensive line has injury issues and the offense Delhomme has been erratic. Dallas lost the stadium opener on a combination of soft defense, four turnovers, and a last second field goal, Cowboys win 30 – 20.

NCAA FOOTBALL:

ARIZONA STATE (A+ rated pick) vs. Louisiana-Monroe:  Big Al’s Pounder - Sun Devils dominating defense may put up more points that ULM offense.  Georgia is on deck, but with ASU off the bye and playing at night we don’t see a let down.  With teams who take pride in their defense the back door cover potential is less of an issue. Sun Devils may not punt this entire contest. Our call is ASU rolls to a 30 point win for our first A+ rated opinion of the year.

BYU vs. Florida State:  Cougars are playing disciplined football, and the Seminoles just haven’t been what they used to be.  This game has BCS playoff implications, and we don’t see BYU letting that slip away.

UTAH (+)(ML) @ Oregon:   This one should be a great game to watch, decided by who has the ball last.  The value is with UTAH and the points, and we won’t be surprised if they win straight up.

WASHINGTON (+) vs. Southern California:  The Huskies are playing much better football these days, and they’ll be out to show it.  Way too many points, USC may win, but they’re in a down spot and it will be closer to a 7-13 point game.

Also likes: UAB (+), Arkansas, UNLV, SJSU (+)

NFL:

TENNESSEE vs. Houston:  The Titans don’t look like they’ve lost a step on defense.  They’re front 7 is stout against the run, and Houston looked lost trying to run on a lesser run defense last week.  Any team that loses to a rookie QB getting his first NFL start has serious problems.  Tennessee’s Jeff Fisher will know how to take advantage

OAKLAND (+)(ML) @ Kansas City:  The Raiders get beat up in the media as being a joke of a franchise, but Oakland really does have an identity – they will pound the ball away against this very porous KC run defense. 

ARIZONA (+)(ML) @ Jacksonville:  The Jaguars offensive line is porous and the Cardinals  front seven is dominant.  Jags young secondary can be had by good pass attacks.

Also likes: Indianapolis, NY Giants (ML)

Last week we went 12 – 4 straight up and a very reasonable 10 – 6 against the spread, probably can not keep that up all season but we will see what we can do. There were some very strange plays last week and some key injuries have already occurred that will have some impact going into week two.

I participate in a pick’em league and these choices reflect those picks though my final league selections are not be finalized until the first game kicks off and I do make changes (rarely) based on last minute injury information. I recommend you do the same.

Arizona at Jacksonville – Jacksonville is still offensively one-dimensional and defensively they are not a dominate group. Arizona was stunned with a division home loss where their offense was largely ineffective, they should do better here, Cardinals win 28 – 24.

Carolina at Atlanta – The Panthers have some serious issues, Delhomme was awful but the defense was very ineffective, losing was a team effort. Atlanta had an easier game and looked solid defensively, Falcons win 24 – 21.

Cincinnati at Green Bay – Cincinnati lost on what is likely one of the more bizarre plays of the season last week. Green Bay offense was off target in their opener but aggressive defense paid off nicely and rates to again, Packers win 24 – 10.

Minnesota at Detroit – They are perpetually rebuilding in Detroit, the offense is a work in progress and the defense is still struggling, another long season. Minnesota has the running game down but has not yet seen much improvement in their passing game; Vikings win 28 – 14.

Houston at Tennessee – Houston got off to a very disappointing start both offensively and, less surprising defensively as well. Tennessee also lost but played well enough to win against most teams and have four extra days to prepare, Titans win 24 – 14.

Oakland at Kansas City – Kansas City could not establish a running the running game and their defense was ineffective. The Oakland defense was surprisingly good and the offensive line was getting the running game going, Raiders win 24 – 21.

New England at New York Jets – The New York Jets defense almost played up to its talent level last week and Sanchez played reasonably well in his first NFL game. Brady looked somewhat anxious under pressure last week but got better as the game went on, Patriots win 27 – 21.

New Orleans at Philadelphia – Philadelphia has quarterback question, even if McNabb can play his effectiveness is likely to be limited. New Orleans can put up points, apparently faster than they can give them up, Saints win 35 – 31.

St. Louis at Washington – The Rams looked bad on both sides of the ball in their loss last weekend failing to score. Washington started slow and could not generate a consistent running game at any point, Redskins win 21 – 7.

Tampa Bay at Buffalo – Tampa Bay accumulated a lot of yardage last week but managed to give up even more. Buffalo managed to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory but their offensive line looks better than expected, Bills win 24 – 17.

Seattle at San Francisco – Seattle won handily at home pitching a shutout but they have some injuries and historically do not travel well. San Francisco won on the road and while the offense was inconsistent, their defense was quite effective, 49ers win 24 – 21.

Baltimore at San Diego – San Diego played a very physical late game and has some injuries on offense to deal with. Baltimore showed a diverse and effective offensive scheme while the defense is still quite effective, Ravens win 24 – 21.

Pittsburgh at Chicago – Chicago lost last week, in more ways than one, when Urlacher went down for the season. Pittsburgh played an overtime game but has four extra days to recover and they have a defense that can create turnover opportunities, Steelers win 24 – 14.

Cleveland at Denver – Cleveland played well for a half but gave up over two hundred yards rushing in their loss. Denver won on an extremely fortunate bounce, they did not get their running game established, that should be a focus here, Bronco’s win 27 – 21.

New York Giants at Dallas – Dallas rolled up some big offensive numbers on a variety of big plays last week, but they gave up a lot of yardage as well. The New York defense is about as good as expected which means it is very good indeed, Giants win 24 – 21.

Indianapolis at Miami – Miami was shutdown offensively for most of the game last week losing four turnovers, and their defense seemed to wear down. Indianapolis won despite turnovers when the defense asserted itself late in the game, Colts win 28 – 20.

Almost two weeks ago we posted an early NFL A play: Baltimore, who at the time were laying single digits hosting KC (see August 31st post).  I’ve received an email asking if we still like Baltimore as a pick.  The quick answer: No, not at, 13.5 points.  Now if you were aggressive and jumped on Baltimore two weeks ago - that’s an excellent wager.

HOUSTON: Texans laying less than a TD at home, hosting a very green starting QB getting his first NFL start on the road - there’s a lot to like about this contest. Jets are adjusting to new schemes on both sides of the ball, it will be interesting to see if they can rush against an improved defense that will surely be geared up to stop the run.  Even if the Jets defense plays up to expectations we expect Houston will win the field position battle, and put up enough points to cover the number.

ALSO LIKES:  Miami (+), Oakland (+)

GL, Kurt

We’re starting our college action off with three solid dog plays, two of whom we like to outright win as home dog moneyline plays.  Check back tomorrow early afternoon for our NFL picks:

UCONN (ML or +)  Huskies installed as home dogs against flu racked North Carolina, we think they could outright win. Defensively Connecticut should be much improved over last year, both in the secondary and on the front line.  I especially like this one on the Money Line.

NORTH TEXAS (ML or +) Mean Green are historically a very good home dog play on the Money Line.  See no reason why that won’t continue - they should have a competitive squad again this year, and certainly will be in the thick of it with Ohio.

SJSU (+) Take the very generous points with the Spartans playing at home - they are a solid passing team who should be able to put up points. This line look skewed by last weeks results.

SATURDAY UPDATE 2:00pm EST: BYU - Big Al just called in gushing over the Cougars, he says BYU is GOOD, the only scheme BYU struggles against is speed, and Tulane doesn’t have any.  Cougars by 28.

Also Likes: Penn State, Navy, UNLV (+), Toledo, Western Michigan (ML)

Here we are back again for another year of picks; last year I managed a respectable .663 straight up and my best season ever against the spread at .550. Note that these picks are not to be confused with the real business of Football Forecasters and are not to be considered as recommended picks. Note that I personally do not bet football as anyone who has followed this little feature will understand immediately. Anyone who uses this information other than for amusement value, i.e. laughing at them the following week, is an idiot.

I participate in a pick’em league and these choices reflect those choices though my final league selections are not be finalized until after these are published. Week one picks are always a bit of a guess as it is difficult to get a feel for how the off season changes are going to work out and this season is opening with more uncertainty than usual.

Tennessee at Pittsburgh – The Titan defense may not have fallen off as much as some expect their offense, though somewhat one-dimensional, is solid. This looks like a defensive struggle though and Pittsburgh has the best in the league, Steelers win 17 – 14.

Miami at Atlanta – Miami overachieved last season and has revamped their defense, particularly in the secondary; expect them to keep the offense interesting. Atlanta should be able to keep the ball moving offensively and their defense enough stops, Falcons win 27 – 21.

Kansas City at Baltimore – Kansas City has offensive questions having fired their coordinator and the defense is suspect in what looks to be a long season. In Baltimore, the defense continues to age but the offense may be ready to contribute, Ravens win 21 – 10.

Philadelphia at Carolina – The Panthers have some defensive issues to resolve based on their preseason play which was mediocre and they will be tested right out of the gate. Philadelphia has an explosive offence and aggressive defense, Eagles win 27 – 21.

Denver at Cincinnati – The Bronco offense has changed, likely for the worse, while a bad defense does not look to have improved. Cincinnati has their own defensive problems but a healthy Palmer should improve their offensive production, Bengals win 28 – 21.

Minnesota at Cleveland – Cleveland went through the preseason without naming a starting quarterback and have some offensive line issues as well. Favre has been the story of recent weeks and will be looking to make a statement here, Vikings win 28 – 14.

Dallas at Tampa Bay – Tampa Bay is no longer synonymous with the cover-two defense and the transition is likely to be a bit rocky particularly early. Dallas has some questions but they still are very talented team, Cowboys win 28 – 17.

Detroit at New Orleans – Detroit will be better this season largely because they have to be, still this will be a long rebuilding process. New Orleans prolific offense has some injury concerns and there defense is still soft, Saints win 27 – 17.

Jacksonville at Indianapolis – Jacksonville is healthy again after last season’s disaster though they are still lacking a quality receiving corps. Indianapolis has had some coaching changes but they were mostly internal Manning is still in control, Colts win 23 – 20.

New York Jets at Houston – The Jets are starting a rookie quarterback and their former number one receiver has moved on. The Houston offense is loaded with weapons the defense needs to demonstrate some consistency for the long haul but here, Texans win 28 – 20.

San Francisco at Arizona – San Francisco is still without their number one draft pick leaving their receiving corps very thin. Arizona is coming off the Super Bowl loss; while the offense is loaded, the defense is still suspect, Cardinals win 24 – 21.

Washington at New York Giants – Washington is about to find out if Haynesworth is going to payoff and allow the defense to control the line of scrimmage. New York will need to establish offensive balance; but their defense will be the key here, Giants win 20 – 14.

St Louis at Seattle – St Louis is still in rebuilding mode and already has some significant injuries to overcome. Seattle has some injury history of its own to work through but if healthy this is a good team and may surprise as the season goes on, Seahawks win 24 – 17.

Chicago at Green Bay – Green Bay is changing to the 3-4 defense and could have problems adjusting, this game may go to whoever has the ball last. Chicago made the big deal of the off-season for a quarterback which should result in more offensive production, Bears win 27 – 24.

Buffalo at New England – Buffalo is one of three teams that fired their offensive coordinator apparently based on preseason results, hard to be optimistic about this group. New England has Brady back and plenty of offensive muscle; the defense has some questions, Patriots win 28 – 14.

San Diego at Oakland – Oakland may have more talent than they are given credit for but they do not seem to be able to use what they have effectively. San Diego has a number of offensive weapons and can dominate defensively, Chargers win 28 – 10.