Football Forecasters

Preseason has started, a time when everything is still possible. There is the anticipation of the season to come and in it the hope of the fan. There is a certain amount of frustration though; the starters appear briefly, if at all. The games mean nothing as a predictor of the season.

The starters are not going to be, by themselves, the only factor in how a team will do overall. Teams know the starters for the most part and have a clear idea of what most of the rest depth chart is going to look like as well; despite the various statements that will be made over the next few weeks. The same is not true of the final five to fifteen positions on a team though.

These players at the end of the roster will make their living by their versatility. While occasionally, they will step up and have a role as a starter, or spot starter, for the most part they will be making their living on special teams and as back ups, or depth players. These players and the quality of depth in these positions will make a difference in two to four games a year for each team. (Between special team play and depth.)

The preseason is therefore a time to pay attention, unfortunately the games you can see are perhaps the least important factor. What counts most are the practices; if you can attend a training camp for a day, you should. Players make the team in practice not in the preseason games. Still the preseason games let some players audition their talents for other teams in the league and there is always the promise of things to come.

Vegas has the Arizona total win number at 9, that looks like an attractive play to bet the UNDER.  Consider that in the NFC West both Seattle and San Francisco look to be much improved.  Outside of the division at  home the Cardinals draw: Houston, Carolina, Minnesota, Indianapolis, and Green Bay. They travel to: Jacksonville, NYG, Tennessee, Chicago, and Detroit.  Of those non-division teams only Detroit can be penciled in as a win, all the others should be 1 score games.  Last year during the regular season, outside of division play Arizona was winless on the road. They might end up the same way this year.  Their best chance might be Detroit.  However, consider that the Lions is their last road game, and Detroit might be much improved at that point.  Also, they’ll be traveling to Detroit on a short week, sandwiched between two division games. If Detroit is getting a TD or more in that contest I’ll almost certainly be on the Lions.  Arizona ranked number 32 in the league in rushing offense, and 28th overall in scoring defense; that combo does not bode well for a return to the playoffs.

Another play I’m really liking to start the NFL season is Baltimore laying less than 10 at home vs KC.  Consider that last year Baltimore had a top 3 rated defense in ALL major categories. While KC ranked in the bottom half of the league in ALL major offensive categories, as well as having the 29th rated defense overall. We certainly like to make our forecasts projected on what we expect teams should do in the new season, and this is a situation where two teams should pretty much start out where they left off.  KC has a new QB, and new systems on both sides of the ball - they’ll have a difficult time putting up 13 points.  We’re not worried about the Raven offense minus Derrick Mason - receivers Kelley Washington and Demetrius Williams should fill the void, and may be able to stretch the field - something Mason could not do. We expect the number Baltimore will be laying will reach double digits by kick-off.  If you like line value, and we do, Baltimore is the early pick.

Kurt