Football Forecasters

Then there were two. Last week I was wrong on both games both straight up and against the spread making the playoffs a rather poor 4 – 6 straight up and 5 – 5 against the spread. The Super Bowl is obviously not what I would have predicted but it is what we have.

Please note that these picks are not to be confused with the real business of Football Forecasters and are not the recommended picks. Personally I do not bet football and anyone who has followed this little feature for any length of time will understand why. I participate in a pick’em league and these choices reflect those picks though my league choices are subject to last minute changes based on the latest injury and practice reports. Generally, these picks will appear on Wednesday evenings and for their limited amusement value.

The Super Bowl

Arizona – The offensive prowess of this team is not really a question but they are better than they demonstrated during the season. The offensive line has stepped up their level of play, they have protected well in the passing game and their run blocking is considerably better though not outstanding. Larry Fitzgerald has been playing at an entirely different level; he was a great receiver during the season but in the post season, he has been unstoppable thus far.

The bigger surprise was the Arizona defense, actually the discovery that there was an defense in Arizona. We have seen this before in 2006 when the Colts defense went from worst in the regular season to best in the playoffs. There though a couple of players returned from injury (notably Bob Sanders) and you could make sense out of it. In this case, there has been no such dramatic return but they are generating sacks and turnovers.

Pittsburgh – The Steelers have played a brutal schedule this season and overcome the challenge. This team will grind out a win, usually by playing stifling defense and field position. Defensively they have dominated in about every statistical category throughout the season and post season. The defense can make big plays on occasion but their signature is consistent hard hitting and an aggressive game plan.

Offensively they can break the big play in either the running and passing game. They have controlled the clock as much due to the defensive game as their offense. Hines Ward’s health is a concern as he serves as a security blanket for Roethlisberger in the passing game and is a consistent downfield blocker in the running game.

The Super Bowl may not be a great game but there is a real question as to who will win. The Steelers are favored for good reason; they are the better team. The Cardinals can score quickly and the Steelers are not a good come from behind team. The question will become can the Cardinals make inroads against the Steelers defense and keep their offense flexible.

If Pittsburgh can dictate the tempo of the game, they should win easily. Their defense can rush the passer from about every defensive position. Warner, if given time, can throw with surgical precision but under pressure his ball security has been historically poor and the Cardinals can not give the Steelers any extra possessions. On the other hand if the Cardinals can strike early they will be not be in forced passing situations and can take some of the pressure off of the quarterback.

Pittsburgh is going to try to take Larry Fitzgerald out of the equation. Double-teaming him is not sufficient; they will have to hit him coming off the line of scrimmage and keep coverage over the top. If they do not make good contact off the line, he will make plays (and may even if they do) but man coverage is not an option. For Arizona, this may be a question of how recovered Boldin is because he will be facing a lot of single coverage that, if healthy, he can beat.

This has the look of a great defense versus an explosive offense. So what will happen here boils down to these questions:

Can the Arizona line give Warner enough time? Initially yes, though if the Steelers can play for the pass this will be problematic.

Can Arizona get a running game going? No at least not without success in the passing game though James is a good pass blocker and there are likely to be opportunities in the short passing game for him if Pittsburgh over commits to the blitz.

Can the Steelers take Fitzgerald out of the game? Not with coverage, the pass rush has to be working.

Can Arizona stop the Steelers offense? Depends on which Cardinal defense shows up but Whisenhunt knows the Pittsburgh offense and should have either group well prepared. Count on the Steelers to want to test the run defense of the Cardinals and set up the pass with the run if they can.

Players to watch:

Pittsburgh – Polamalu, Taylor, Parker, Ward (health), Farrior

Arizona – Warner, Boldin (health), Fitzgerald, Dansby, Rodgers-Cromartie

The last couple of games Arizona has been able to jump out to early leads. It will be hard for them to repeat that trend but not impossible. Still the likely scenario would seem to be the Steelers to win going away as the Cardinals make turnovers because they are pressing and pressured by the Steelers defense. The problem for Pittsburgh is can they maintain control of the game which seems uncertain unless they can get to Warner early. If they can’t and the possibility that Hines Ward will be limited or even unavailable the pick here is the Cardinals, 28 – 24.

Now there are four teams left standing. In the divisional round I was again 2 – 2 straight up but 3 – 1 against the spread which means that I am better against the spread than straight up in the playoffs at this point. This week again has the replay theme but with a twist. There are two number six seeds playing yet and it seems likely that one and possibly both could win. This would seem a fitting end to what has been a topsy-turvy season.

Please note that these picks are not to be confused with the real business of Football Forecasters and are not the recommended picks. Personally I do not bet football and anyone who has followed this little feature for any length of time will understand why. I participate in a pick’em league and these choices reflect those picks though my league choices are subject to last minute changes based on the latest injury and practice reports. Generally, these picks will appear on Wednesday evenings and for their limited amusement value.

AFC

Baltimore at Pittsburgh – This will be the third meeting between these two divisional rivals with Pittsburgh winning both of the earlier meetings. These were close games, going to overtime once, and extremely hard fought. This should be a defensive classic. These are good teams who know each other very well, this will be a toe-to-toe slugfest, not much subtlety to be found here.

To have a chance to beat Pittsburgh the Raven defense will have to get consistent pressure on Roethlisberger in order to create turnover opportunities. They can do that but they will also have to contend with keeping Willie Parker from breaking big plays, either running or in the short passing game particularly against the bilitz.

Flacco has done remarkably well largely because he has not been placed in a position where he has had to win games on his own. Pittsburgh does everything well defensively but the Ravens now have the ability to mix things up because they can take legitimate deep plays in the passing game. This stretches the defense and gives them some chance to establish the power running game.

Roethlisberger has been knocked around a lot this season, part of this has to do with his technique but the pass blocking of the offensive line can be very average. The running game can be very effective but the lack of a true power rusher in a game like this can be an exploitable weakness. The Steelers are going to have to establish ball control with balance.

The game is likely to be decided by the defenses and there is not much to choose between the two, both are hard-hitting and capable of the big play. The slight advantage for Pittsburgh is that they are better rested but Baltimore is somewhat more aggressive, Ravens win 21 – 20.

NFC

Philadelphia at Arizona – These teams met in Philadelphia in week thirteen with the Eagles winning easily. The Eagles have been a team that seems to play hot or cold and of late they have been playing very hot indeed. Arizona’s offensive prowess has never been in doubt; weapons like Fitzgerald and Boldin have given them the third ranked overall offense despite having the last ranked running offense in the league.

The Arizona defense has been playing very well in the playoffs. This is rather remarkable since they had the worst overall scoring defense of any team to make the playoffs. However, in the playoffs they have the fourth-best scoring defense and second in total yardage. (Note that the other three teams left are the top three defensive teams from the regular season.)

Fitzgerald has been unstoppable, seemingly able of producing a big play whenever required. Boldin’s injury has restricted his effectiveness but they have been able to establish a rushing attack to support the passing game. Warner, who can be somewhat erratic, has been solid.

The Philadelphia defense is very good; they are talented across the board and can keep an offense off balance. Jim Johnson has had good schemes for each of the playoff games and can bring pressure with the talent available. This is one way to disrupt the Cardinals passing game if they can make it happen.

The Cardinals play well at home, Philadelphia is playing well and overall the more talented team. This is a quarterback’s game, one of them could easily fold up, Warner under pressure or McNabb for whatever reason he seems to have a bad game. Barring that there is a slight edge to Philadelphia despite being on the road, Eagles win. 28 – 24.

The playoffs move into the divisional round. Last week we broke even after predicting that the wildcard teams would sweep as two of the home teams won also beating the spread in those two games. As has been pointed out excessively each of these games is a rematch of a game played earlier in the season. The earlier games were all very competitive, decided by a touchdown or less. The games this weekend rate to be less competitive overall though they all have potentially interesting storylines.

Please note that these picks are not to be confused with the real business of Football Forecasters and are not the recommended picks. Personally I do not bet football and anyone who has followed this little feature for any length of time will understand why. I participate in a pick’em league and these choices reflect those picks though my league choices are subject to last minute changes based on the latest injury and practice reports. Generally, these picks will appear on Wednesday evenings and for their limited amusement value.

AFC

Baltimore at Tennessee – These teams met in week five with Tennessee eking out a close win in a low scoring defensive struggle. The more things change the more they stay the same, as history seems likely to repeat itself at least in terms of the game type. The problem for both teams will be stopping the run and forcing their opponent out of their game plan.

For the Raven defense, it will mean stopping Chris Johnson from breaking big plays. They have plenty of defensive speed for this but will have to be careful of cutbacks. The offense will have to be patient and try to establish their own running game as they cannot expect a rookie quarterback to shoulder the entire load; despite Flacco’s lack of experience they have the better passing game their big play threats are in the passing game.

Both teams have very good defenses but the Ravens are more of a big play defense who can generate turnovers. This is a game likely to be decided by turnovers and Baltimore is somewhat more likely to generate some, Ravens win 24 – 21.

San Diego at Pittsburgh – In week eleven this game was decided by a last minute field goal; this game may not be quite so close. The health of key players figures in to the choice here, Tomlinson looks like he will be limited, if available and Roethlisberger is expected to be available. That gives an edge to the Pittsburgh offense.

The defense of Pittsburgh has been dominating all season. The San Diego defense has stepped up in recent weeks but still is somewhat inconsistent. The defenses will have to play well and again the edge here goes to Pittsburgh. Getting pressure on Rivers has historically produced turnovers.

One area where the Chargers excel is special teams where Scifres, the punter who controlled field position in last weeks game. Sproles is always a threat though that may be diminished somewhat as he is expected to be playing a lot more in the regular offense again and will be taking a lot of hits. Still the edge is with Pittsburgh for this one, Steelers win 28 – 20.

NFC

Philadelphia at New York Giants – This is the third meeting of these teams who split during the regular season with each team winning on the road. This is a difficult game to call because it is never really clear which Eagles team is going to show up on any given Sunday. Philadelphia can beat just about anyone but have been very inconsistent at times this season. Their lack of a power running game does hurt their ability to dictate tempo in games and control the clock.

The Giants are a steady team that has had some injury problems but is sound on both sides of the ball. The defense can create pressure on McNabb in the pocket with their defensive line; the problem will come in controlling the short passing game to Westbrook. If the Giants get the lead, they can control the pace of the game. They are less likely to make big gains but they can play the field position game against the Eagles.

Both teams are good and if each play to the best of their capabilities this should be a very good game. The Eagles seem to be the most likely team to have a lapse at this point, they just do not seem to be able to put three good games together in a row, Giants win 24 – 21.

Arizona at Carolina – When these teams met earlier Carolina had a come from behind win at home. Both quarterbacks can run hot and unfortunately, they can go terribly cold. The teams have very different game plans in line, Carolina will play ball control and field position a classic using the run to set up the pass. Arizona will be playing a more open, faster game, where the big play is featured and the running game is mostly a diversion.

The Cardinal defense played well in shutting down the run last week, this week will test them again as they will have to keep Williams and Stewart contained. They will be very aware of Steve Smith who had a big game in their first match up. Trying to stop Smith will give the running game a chance to dominate time of possession. Offensively the Cardinals need to get ahead and control the tempo or this could be a very long day.

Carolina has a solid but not intimidating defense. If Boldin is healthy, they will be challenged to cover the Arizona receivers. His status is still unclear at this point. If Carolina does fall behind they do not have to get one-dimensional passing as Williams is a big play running threat. Given that Carolina has more weapons and options, Panthers win 28 – 21.