Football Forecasters

A reminder that we’re trying to get our situation with reloading the front page straightened out - due to the holiday I’m waiting to hear from our tech guru.  So we’ll keep loading the picks through the blog.  No A plays this week… B rated picks are 4% of bankroll.

COLLEGE:

Texas Tech - The blow-out pick of the week.  Tech is in their home finale, and still has a shot at the Big 12 title.  Baylor defense can be had, and we don’t see them letting up here.  Red Raiders by 35.

UCF - The Golden Knights are sound on the defensive side of the ball, they’re in their final home game, and should come to play.  UAB has struggled this year, this is their 3rd of 4 on the road, and we get the feeling the Blazers just want it to end.  UCF by 14.

Also Likes: Oklahoma, Boston College, Cincinnati

NFL:

Indianapolis - The Colts are back, while the Browns are wondering if the coach and GM will be.  The Colts should be able to move the ball over the top all day.  Indy by 10.

New Orleans (+): This should be a great game to watch.  The Saints actually have a decent run defense, their vulnerability is over the top, but that’s not Tampa’s strength.  Look for this one to be decided by a FG either way.

Also Likes: Atlanta (+),  Jax/Houston OVER

Hello all,  I’m having technical difficulties uploading the home page of the site, and have turned in a trouble ticket to our site host. I don’t understand a word of what they told me to do, so will ask a web technician to look into it on Friday. 

In the meantime we’ll continue to update our weekly picks in the blog area. I’ll update the college picks Friday afternoon.  Sorry - no action from me regarding Thursday picks - I just try not to bet on Holidays.  Takes too much of my attention away from family.

Peace,

Kurt

The Crystal Ball

We are in the final quarter with week thirteen, this past week was a relatively bland 10 - 6; the against the spread results were also bland coming in exactly average at 8 – 8. For the season, the results are 116 – 59 – 1 straight up and 93– 79 – 4 versus the spread. Have a happy Thanksgiving, there is no reason to expect the first two games to distract you much from the turkey, but go light as the night game might be interesting and you would not want the tryptophan to put you to sleep early.

Please note that these picks are not to be confused with the real business of Football Forecasters and are not the recommended picks. Personally I do not bet football and anyone who has followed this little feature for any length of time will understand why. I participate in a pick’em league and these choices reflect those picks though my league choices are subject to last minute changes based on the latest injury and practice reports. Generally, these picks will appear on Wednesday evenings and for their limited amusement value.

Tennessee at Detroit – Apparently the Indians versus Custer was already booked. The Lions get the Turkey day game literally and figuratively. Expect Tennessee to come into this game upset by the loss last week and ready to take out on Detroit, Titans win 28 – 10.

Seattle at Dallas – Seattle has been something of a disappointment, injuries on offense account for part of it but the defense has just been bad. Dallas has Romo back at the helm and the offense has been revitalized, Cowboys win 28 – 17.

Arizona at Philadelphia – The Eagles benched McNabb last week after another dismal half of bad offensive football though the problems are not all his. Arizona has one of the best passing attacks in the NFL; weather could become a factor, Cardinals win 28 – 24.

Baltimore at Cincinnati – The Bengals continue to struggle with injuries and ineptitude and the schedule here is no particular help here. Baltimore has been typically solid defensively but the offense has been a surprise with the play of Flacco and company, Ravens win 27 – 17.

Carolina at Green Bay – The Packers are on a short week and have taken some injuries last week that could have some costs this week. Carolina has been inconsistent both offensively and defensively and need to get on track, Panthers win 24 – 21.

Miami at St Louis – The Rams are playing football at a remarkable level of futility; injuries have sidelined most of their best talent. Miami is playing surprisingly well offensively; defensively their talking can sometimes be a bit overdone, Dolphins win 28 – 20.

New Orleans at Tampa Bay – Tampa Bay is playing their best on defense and will need to; there is concern with the state of the running game. New Orleans is coming off a short week; but they have an explosive offense and the defense may be improving to average, Saints win 24 – 21.

New York Giants at Washington – The Redskins have been winning by playing sound football; they have done about as well as possible with their resources. The Giants are playing as well as anyone at this point in the season, Giants win 28 – 21.

San Francisco at Buffalo – San Francisco has been playing somewhat better the past few weeks but they still are not a good team. Buffalo has been inconsistent and at least on defense the victim of any number of key injuries, Bills win 24 – 21.

Atlanta at San Diego – The Falcons are playing very well on both offense and defense these days, perhaps the biggest surprise has been the play of the lines. San Diego is actually still in the hunt for the playoffs but they need to start winning now, Chargers win 24 – 21.

Pittsburgh at New England – The Patriots are playing better on offense and the defense is holding up, for the most part. Pittsburgh has some injuries and have been less than powerhouse offensively but the defense is the best in the NFL, Steelers win 24 – 21.

Denver at New York Jets – Denver is leading in their division despite giving up, on average, four points more per game than they score. The Jets appear to be improving their overall defensive play though the pass rush still needs work, Jets win 28 – 21.

Kansas City at Oakland – Oakland is still a rather mediocre team despite last weeks win; the offense is limited and one-dimensional. Kansas City has various injury problems and is in the midst of a rebuilding program as well, Chiefs win 24 – 20.

Chicago at Minnesota – The Bears defense finally had a game where they looked like a good defense but this will be a sterner test. Minnesota has the run defense and offense to control a ball game but can’t play well from behind, not a likely problem here, Vikings win 28 – 21.

Jacksonville at Houston – The Jaguars have been one of the more disappointing teams this season, injuries and lack of pass rush have been issues. Houston has been consistently inconsistent in their play throughout the season but has weapons, Texans win 27 – 21.

Last week we went 3-3 overall for 50%, miss hitting on both A rated plays.  The week started out slow uncovering picks - but over the past 24 hours we feel very good about this weeks slate:

COLLEGE:

Rutgers - Big Al’s POUNDER - Scarlet Knights have been explosive on offensive over the past 3 weeks, and the defense has shown the ability to clamp down.  While Army offense has been sporadic at best all season.  Cadets have Navy on deck… Rutgers needs the win to become bowl eligible.  Our forecasting models forecast Rutgers to post 38-45 points, while Army puts up 13-17.  With bowl eligibility on the line we see little chance of a letdown, and will call a 25 point win by the home team.

Maryland (ML)- HC Ralph Friedgren’s teams always seam to play well in big games against good competition - and this one against FSU is that.  It ought to be a great one to watch.  We’re getting some value on the Money Line, and we’re all about value - we’ll take the Terrapins to eke out a win with a 4% of bankroll play.

Mississippi State (ML)- The Bulldogs like HC Sylvester Croom, and will come to play.  Arkansas has LSU on deck, and might be overlooking the scrappy Bulldogs.  This is another contest where we’re projecting a tight battle, in the end we think Mississippi State comes out on top - pulling off the outright upset in their final home game.

Also Likes: Oklahoma, Virginia Tech, Virginia (ML)

NFL:

Baltimore - Philly just doesn’t seem to have a pulse… despite getting manhandled at NY last week, the Ravens are playing inspired ball - and if the Eagles show up with a half hearted effort, they’re going to smacked around by the Ravens.

Kansas City (ML) - Buffalo is known for it’s ball control offense and tenacious defense, but we expect they’re may be some fireworks on the scoreboard here.  KC is starting two rookies at CB, expect Buffalo to take advantage.  But KC seems to have found a rhythm with their spread offense, and Buffalo has struggled on both sides of the ball.  Very good value with the Chiefs on the money line.

Indianapolis (ML) - Colts offensive line has stabilized; the defense has shored up in the secondary.  While Chargers still struggling on defense.  We like Indy to win outright, with a 4% of bankroll Money Line play.

Also Likes: Minnesota (ML),  Denver

The bye weeks are behind us as we move into week eleven, this past week was a good 12 – 3 – 1; the against the spread results were above average at 9 – 7. For the season, the results are 106 – 53 – 1 straight up and 85 – 71 – 4 versus the spread.

Please note that these picks are not to be confused with the real business of Football Forecasters and are not the recommended picks. Personally I do not bet football and anyone who has followed this little feature for any length of time will understand why. I participate in a pick’em league and these choices reflect those picks though my league choices are subject to last minute changes based on the latest injury and practice reports. Generally, these picks will appear on Wednesday evenings and for their limited amusement value.

Cincinnati at Pittsburgh – The Bengals have not lost in four weeks turning in a rare tie last week, they are actually playing somewhat better, but they still are not good. Pittsburgh has a brutal schedule; this game could be a let down, Steelers win 24 – 17.

Philadelphia at Baltimore – The Eagles can play down to their opposition as proved last week; inconsistent does not begin to describe this team. Baltimore has surprised with their offensive production, defense is still their specialty, Ravens win 27 – 24.

Houston at Cleveland – Houston has some talent but does not seem to get them all playing together with focus at the same time. Cleveland has many offensive weapons but they have not been able to effectively use them with consistency, Browns win 24 – 20.

San Francisco at Dallas – San Francisco has played with greater intensity the past couple of weeks and fewer offensive mistakes. For Dallas the return of Romo did lead to a victory last week and the defense even played better, Cowboys win 28 – 21.

Tampa Bay at Detroit – Detroit has been disappointing even by Detroit standards, which is saying something about futility, there are glimmers of real talent but nothing can be done with it. Tampa Bay is well balanced on both sides of the ball, Buccaneers win 28 – 14.

Minnesota at Jacksonville – Jacksonville has had a difficult time with injuries and a disappointingly average defense. Minnesota gets to play in Florida two weeks in a row, their defense against the run is the big factor here, Vikings win 24 – 20.

Buffalo at Kansas City – The Bills have had injuries to their defensive secondary that have cost them at least a couple of wins. Kansas City is obviously rebuilding but coming together and playing hard, particularly at home, Chiefs win 20 – 17.

New England at Miami – Miami surprised the Patriots at home early in the season with the wildcat and a better defense that anyone realized. New England is not the team they have been in the past but this is still a talented group that will be better prepared, Patriots win 24 – 21.

Chicago at St Louis – St Louis has a variety of problems including a defense giving up the most points per game in the NFL. The Chicago defense has been inept; offensively they have been using their two tight ends like wide receivers to create favorable match ups, Bears win 24 – 17.

New York Jets at Tennessee – The Jets are a difficult team to predict, they can be explosive offensively or fizzle, particularly under pressure. Tennessee is just a fundamentally sound team on both sides of the ball, and they play well at home, Titans win 27 – 20.

Oakland at Denver – The Raiders are an inconsistent team that lacks any real offensive weapons; the defense gets exposed as a result. Denver has a poor defense but enough offense to overcome that limitation at least some of the time, Broncos win 28 – 20.

New York Giants at Arizona – Arizona is dominating their division, with a prolific passing attack and a rather average defense. The Giants are also dominating a much better division with a very good offense and better defense, Giants win 28 – 24.

Washington at Seattle – Seattle used to have a more distinct home field advantage that was when they were playing better defense. Washington has been playing fairly well on both sides of the ball particularly defensively, Redskins win 28 – 21.

Carolina at Atlanta – Atlanta lost at home for the first time this season last week, they are still playing generally sound football but have exposable weaknesses. Delhomme has had a couple of bad games and cannot afford another one here, Panthers win 21 – 20.

Indianapolis at San Diego – San Diego has had problems with consistency, seldom putting together good defensive and offensive efforts in the same game. Indianapolis has been playing better; the question is the health of Sanders for this game, Colts win 24 – 21.

Green Bay at New Orleans – The Saint defense is almost as bad as their offense is good and this is the top passing game in the NFL. Green Bay is playing well over the past few weeks despite a couple of losses in that time, Packers win 21 – 20.

It has been two brutal weekends in a row for us, winning just 3 picks out of 12 straight up with our top rated opinions in that span.  With that said we still have a positive bankroll on the season - and are not deviating from our money management strategy going into week 11.

COLLEGE:

Marshall - The UCF defense has been MIA this season, and is going up against a good defense at Marshall. We don’t see that situation changing this week.  The Thundering Herd NEEDS this win to stay bowl eligible, and they have the emotional inspiration to get the deed done.  Stout Herd defense gets the nod here - we’ll call a 17 point victory by the motivated home team.

N.C. State (ML)(+) - Scorecasting projections indicate this contest is going to be decided by a FG either way… and the Wolfpack is getting the hook… a very good value play on the ML at +135.  Wake Forest has been solid this year, but this situation, and fundamental matchups do not favor them in this spot.  We’re hitting the Wolfpack with a 4% of bankroll play to win outright.

Colorado State (ML)(+) - New Mexico on the road shouldn’t be favored over anybody.  Scorecasting models predict the Rams should outright win a tightly fought game… by 1 point.  Situation favors Colorado, so we’re rolling with value with a 4% of bankroll play staight up.

Also Likes:  Notre Dame, UConn, North Carolina, Lu. Tech, Oklahoma St., Purdue (+), UTEP

NFL:

Miami A+ rated pick -  Oakland is coming to town.  The Raider pass defense will be able to take away either Ginn or Camarillo, but not both.  The Raiders defense is actually pretty decent, but also undisciplined - which will hurt when the Fish use the Wildcat formation.  This is a nice situation: Consider the Raiders have Denver on deck, traveling West to East, and have played uninspired ball this year.  And are playing a team on the rise, who believe they can make the playoffs.  This one will be absolutely ugly - Miami by 17.

KC (+)(ML) - The Chiefs have found a QB.  And WR Mark Bradley is an underrated talent.  KC should be able to go toe to toe with the Saints, so we’ll take the points, and won’t be surprised if they pull off the upset.

Cleveland (+) - The Browns do have a very good interior rush defense, and that should keep them in the contest against the struggling Bills ground game.  Bills don’t have enough over the top to take strong advantage of Cleveland’s major weakness - the secondary.  Take the points.

Also Likes: NY Giants, Cincinnati (+), San Francisco

The Crystal Ball

The bye weeks are behind us as we move into week eleven, this past week was a good 11 – 3; the against the spread results were somewhat less successful, but very respectable, 9 – 5. For the season, the results are 94 – 50 straight up and 76 – 64 – 4 versus the spread.

Please note that these picks are not to be confused with the real business of Football Forecasters and are not the recommended picks. Personally I do not bet football and anyone who has followed this little feature for any length of time will understand why. I participate in a pick’em league and these choices reflect those picks though my league choices are subject to last minute changes based on the latest injury and practice reports. Generally, these picks will appear on Wednesday evenings and for their limited amusement value.

New York Jets at New England – The Jets have been successful offensively in spurts; Favre has been at his best when not trying to force things. New England despite various injuries on offense and age on defense seems to be getting better each week, Patriots win 28 – 24.

Baltimore at New York Giants – The Ravens defense no longer seems to be the whole story there as the offense as been surprisingly effective. The Giants are coming off a big divisional win and could be in for a bit of a let down here, Giants win 21 – 20.

Denver at Atlanta – The Denver defense has been almost non-existent; the offense can put up a lot of points and has to. The Falcons have over achieved all preseason expectations already and are in the hunt for the playoffs, Falcons win 24 – 17.

Detroit at Carolina – Detroit is ineffective offensively and the defense is the worst in the NFL by about any measurable standard. Carolina had a poor outing last week and as a result are likely to be focused for this game, Panthers win 28 – 10.

Philadelphia at Cincinnati – The Bengals are coming off their bye and the only win of the season, it looks like Palmer is still out though. Philadelphia can be looking a bit of a let down in this position but have a big talent edge, Eagles win 24 – 17.

Minnesota at Tampa Bay – The Vikings are coming off a big win where Peterson was the bulk of the offense and the defense came up with two safeties. Tampa Bay is coming off their bye and have had extra time to prepare, Buccaneers win 24 – 20.

New Orleans at Kansas City – The Chiefs are playing with a lot of effort though not a lot of talent as injuries have taken their toll on an already thin roster. New Orleans is also injury riddled but their offense has plenty of weapons, Saints win 28 – 21.

Chicago at Green Bay – The Bears offense has been a surprise in a good way at least with Orton under center, the defense a surprise in a bad way in terms of their pass defense. Green Bay is playing at home and need a win to stay in the playoff hunt, Packers win 24 – 21.

Houston at Indianapolis – Houston has their difficulties and is a better team than the record would seem to indicate. Indianapolis seems to be getting back into form both offensively and defensively but need to keep winning to make the playoffs, Colts win 28 – 24.

Oakland at Miami – Oakland has an amazingly ineffective offense that actually seems to be getting worse as the season progresses. Miami has been one of the big surprises of the season, the offense has certainly been imaginative, Dolphins win 24 – 14.

St Louis at San Francisco – The Rams are challenged by inconsistencies offensively and defensively, the defense has been particularly generous. The coaching change in San Francisco looked like it might be having an impact last week, forty-niners win 28 – 21.

Arizona at Seattle – The Seahawks have had injuries to either receivers or quarterback or both for the entire season, Hasselbeck may be returning, but too late. Arizona is basically five games ahead in this division and have the most prolific offense in the league, Cardinals win 31 – 21.

San Diego at Pittsburgh – San Diego has been one of the years disappointing teams, the defense has been passive and unable to generate a consistent pass rush. Pittsburgh is doing very well with a difficult schedule, they need to improve pass protection, Steelers win 27 – 21.

Tennessee at Jacksonville – Jacksonville has been one of the more disappointing teams with a variety of injuries and defensive issues. Tennessee is very much for real having demonstrated that their passing game can carry their offense, Titans win 24 – 17.

Dallas at Washington – Dallas is anxiously awaiting the return of Romo to “fix” the offense; it is less clear how he will fix the defense and how much rust he might have. Washington has played very efficiently, few mistakes and good defense, Redskins win 24 – 21.

Cleveland at Buffalo – Buffalo has had their defense depleted by a variety of injuries to key personnel. Cleveland has changed quarterbacks and have had a few extra days to prepare for this game, they need it, Browns win 24 – 20.

Ughh - Last weeks 33% showing hurt the pocket book. But because of sound money management discipline we are still able to play the game.  Here’s the picks for this week:

COLLEGE:

Tennessee - Vols are hungry for a win, and they will not let up on the over matched Cowboys.  Wyoming has had troubles of their own offensively… they may have trouble reaching double digits.  Tennessee by 32.

Boise State - Bronco’s have high powered offense that doesn’t know how to slow down.  Way too much fire power for the perennially struggling Aggies.

Colorado State (+): This one should be a dogfight to the bitter end.  Air Force may come out on top, so take the points.

Also Likes: Fresno St. (ML), SJSU, New Mexico St. (ML), Penn St.

NFL:

As I’m updating our top rated NFL picks Saturday morning, the Volunteers are losing by 13 to the woeful Cowboys… Wow.

Houston - The surest play on the board.  Baltimore is on the tail end of back to back road trips, coming off a key division win - which sets up a nice let down situation.  Back-up QB Sage Rosenfels is a better signal caller than at least 10 of the current starting QBs out there.  After his “windmill” fumble last month expect him to come out sharp.   Houston can take Baltimore over the top.  Texans by a TD.

New Orleans (ML) - Yes, Matt Ryan looks to be the real deal, but he’s no Brees.  Saints have had the bye week to prepare, and Sean Payton is one of the few HCs who can take advantage of the extra time off.  Our call is the Saints will out right win… by a TD or more.

Chicago (ML)(+) - The Bears match-up very well here, despite not having Orton, they should be able to do some damage over the top, as well as on the ground.  On the other side Chicago’s weakness is the secondary, but Kerry Collins and Tennessee don’t look to be the team to take advantage of that.  I like the Bears to win straight-up by 3.

Also Likes: Arizona, KC(+), St.Louis (+)

We are going into week ten and Thursday night games begin and bye weeks will be over soon, this past week was a good 11 – 3; the against the spread results were somewhat less successful but still solid at 8 – 6. For the season, the results are 83 – 47 straight up and 67 – 59 – 4 versus the spread.

Please note that these picks are not to be confused with the real business of Football Forecasters and are not the recommended picks. Personally I do not bet football and anyone who has followed this little feature for any length of time will understand why. I participate in a pick’em league and these choices reflect those picks though my league choices are subject to last minute changes based on the latest injury and practice reports. Generally, these picks will appear on Wednesday evenings and for their limited amusement value.

Denver at Cleveland – Cleveland has decided to change quarterbacks on the shortest possible time to get Quinn ready for the Thursday game. Denver has been defensively soft all season and the injuries are not helping, their offense has been erratic but has a match up advantage here, Bronco’s win 24 – 21.

Tennessee at Chicago – Chicago is bringing back Rex Grossman against the best scoring defense in the league not an auspicious beginning. Tennessee continues to play excellent defense that allows them to continue to win close games, Titans win 21 – 14.

Baltimore at Houston – Houston is also replacing a quarterback this week (see a theme here?) and will not have a lot of luck against this defensive front. Baltimore continues to win by making big defensive plays and running a ball control offense, Ravens win 21 – 17.

Jacksonville at Detroit – Detroit looks to be in the early lead for the first pick in the 2009 draft, they are playing somewhat better but without improving the results much. Jacksonville is one of the most disappointing teams this season, largely due to injury issues, Jaguars win 28 – 20.

Seattle at Miami – Seattle doe not travel well just in case no one has noticed yet and this is a very long trip indeed. Miami is already three games ahead of last year’s total wins and playing very effectively, considering their available resources, Miami wins 24 – 20.

New Orleans at Atlanta – Atlanta is another team playing unexpectedly well this season, they have done well in games that they should do well in despite an overall talent deficit. New Orleans is coming off their bye and should be rested if not necessarily healthier, Saints win 28 – 24.

Buffalo at New England – Buffalo has been missing some significant defensive pieces over the past few weeks and it has shown up in the results. New England has been somewhat tentative offensively but defensively they have improved, Patriots win 27 – 21.

Green Bay at Minnesota – Green Bay has been an up and down team but is playing solidly of late, their run defense however is still suspect. Minnesota has one of the better rushing attacks and is at home, they throw the ball effectively off play action, Vikings win 24 – 21.

St Louis at New York Jets – The Rams have a been inconsistent team and their effort and results have reflected that. The Jets have inconsistency issues of their own, they are capable of putting up points seemingly at will but make a lot of mistakes also, Jets win 31 – 20.

Carolina at Oakland – Oakland was shut out last week but they lost the time of possession battle by more than thirty minutes and had seventy-seven total yards. Carolina will likely get a stiffer test, but they are a better team also, Panthers win 24 – 17.

Kansas City at San Diego – The Chiefs were again close to another upset but lost in overtime, they have injury issues on offense on a rebuilding squad. San Diego is coming off a bye week and may be feeling healthier, the defense has been disappointing here, Chargers win 28 – 17.

Indianapolis at Pittsburgh – The Colts have been getting better as their offensive line has gotten healthy but are still not in synch. Roethlisberger holds the ball and his offensive line is mediocre in pass blocking, his status for the game is uncertain, Steelers win 21 – 20.

New York Giants at Philadelphia – The Giants are playing well on both sides of the ball despite some distractions. The Eagles can be inconsistent but have been getting receivers healthy, which makes them very hard to defend, Eagles win 27 – 21.

San Francisco at Arizona – Arizona has a lot of offensive weapons and can put up a lot of points, the defense has been somewhat hit and miss. San Francisco seems like a team in disarray, the defense has been particularly disappointing, Cardinals win 28 – 17.

It was a brutal weekend for us,  watching Virginia fold up in the 4th quarter in the early Saturday contest; seemingly playing not to lose, missed field goals and critical fumbles - that was hard to watch unfold.  In the end the Hurricane’s just seemed to want it more.  Then Sunday Cleveland seemed to have the game in hand well into the 2nd half - the Brown’s defense actually wasn’t too bad - but the offense gave it away.   Nothing surprises me in this game, but those two meltdowns were harder to take than usual.  I suppose because in both cases it appeared the heart went out of the offense - and the offenses made key mistakes that gave the games away.

This Monday night we’re standing down, but if my arm was twisted and I had to make a call… I’d say Pittsburgh is the better team, and they usually play well on Monday night.

Kurt