I’m a little late getting these out this morning - parent teacher conferences got in the way. Those are always fun, this morning we found out our daughter wasn’t wearing her glasses at school! It’s not hard to see a few very good plays on the board - both on Saturday and Sunday. After our cussin and discussion session we’ve finally settled on our choice plays, which we fully expect to cash in against the man again this week. Our money management model is to wager 4-5% of bankroll on “A” plays (red), 3-4% of bankroll on “B” plays (green), and 1.5-2% of bankroll on two team parlays comprised of the “also likes”.
NAVY - They are simly far better on both sides of the ball. Navy has a strong identity, they know what they are going to do, and are good at doing it. Navy has a disciplined offensive line, and fundamental match-up advanteges in the trenches. I don’t even think Temple knows what they’re game plans is - what they’re trying to do. Midshipmen can score points, Owls can’t keep up - Navy by 17.
VIRGINIA - The Cavaliers have a formidable O-line, which will dictate the outcome of this game. Miami ain’t what it once was, and they’re still getting the respect of the public. Cavaliers are at home and they’re the much better team. We told you a few weeks ago North Carolina would upset the Hurricane - we’re telling you this week Virginia will dominate them. Cavaliers by 10.
TEXAS TECH (ML)(+): Red Raiders should stay in this one, they’re catching the Longhorns in a nice spot, off 3 HUGE emotional victories. Fundamentally TTech has the firepower to go toe to toe with Texas - we think this one will go down to the wire and be decided by a FG either way.
Also Likes: Notre Dame, Georgia (ML)(+), LSU, TCU, Oklahoma State
NFL (as of update 11:59 pm EST):
CLEVELAND A+ pick of the week: The Browns defense has woke up. This is a unit that still has vulnerabilities over the top, but Baltimore just lost WR Demetrius Williams for the season; they don’t have a deep threat. Cleveland will stack the box to stop the run, and force Flacco to beat them deep - which he doesn’t have the weapons to do. Consider that since the bye Cleveland has defeated the Giants and Jacksonville, and went toe to toe with the Skins at RFK - they’re back. In their first meeting Baltimore used an unbalanced line to establish their running game - but the Browns have seen that, and it will not work this time around. We’re projecting a flip/flop of their first meeting - and will call the Browns to win by a dominating 28-10 outcome.
St. Louis (ML)(+): Rams have flipped the switch, they’ve had the personnel, and now they’re playing with a purpose. They were ROBBED last week at New England - and Arizona is going to pay for it this weekend. Both teams have advantages they can exploit… (but personally my gut says it will be an Under game). We see this one on the scorecasting models as a tightly fought contest; but the situation heavily favors the Rams to outright win at home.
Green Bay (ML)(+): The Packers come in off a bye after dominating Indy - and just got to see the best Tennessee has to offer. Jeff Fisher is coming in off a key match-up, with one less day to prepare. The scorecasting models project the Packers to cover, and the Pack do have some things they can do on offense to take advantage… something tells me this should be an A-play - but it might be safer to take the generous points.
Also Likes: Indianapolis, Minnesota, Buffalo