Football Forecasters

I’m a little late getting these out this morning - parent teacher conferences got in the way.  Those are always fun, this morning we found out our daughter wasn’t wearing her glasses at school!  It’s not hard to see a few very good plays on the board - both on Saturday and Sunday.  After our cussin and discussion session we’ve finally settled on our choice plays, which we fully expect to cash in against the man again this week.  Our money management model is to wager 4-5% of bankroll on “A” plays (red), 3-4% of bankroll on “B” plays (green), and 1.5-2% of bankroll on two team parlays comprised of the “also likes”.

SATURDAY:

NAVY - They are simly far better on both sides of the ball.  Navy has a strong identity, they know what they are going to do, and are good at doing it.  Navy has a disciplined offensive line, and fundamental match-up advanteges in the trenches.  I don’t even think Temple knows what they’re game plans is - what they’re trying to do.  Midshipmen can score points, Owls can’t keep up - Navy by 17.

VIRGINIA - The Cavaliers have a formidable O-line, which will dictate the outcome of this game.  Miami ain’t what it once was, and they’re still getting the respect of the public.  Cavaliers are at home and they’re the much better team.  We told you a few weeks ago North Carolina would upset the Hurricane - we’re telling you this week Virginia will dominate them.  Cavaliers by 10.

TEXAS TECH (ML)(+):  Red Raiders should stay in this one, they’re catching the Longhorns in a nice spot, off 3 HUGE emotional victories.  Fundamentally TTech has the firepower to go toe to toe with Texas - we think this one will go down to the wire and be decided by a FG either way.

Also Likes:  Notre Dame, Georgia (ML)(+), LSU, TCU, Oklahoma State

NFL (as of update 11:59 pm EST):

CLEVELAND A+ pick of the week:  The Browns defense has woke up.  This is a unit that still has vulnerabilities over the top, but Baltimore just lost WR Demetrius Williams for the season; they don’t have a deep threat. Cleveland will stack the box to stop the run, and force Flacco to beat them deep - which he doesn’t have the weapons to do.  Consider that since the bye Cleveland has defeated the Giants and Jacksonville, and went toe to toe with the Skins at RFK - they’re back.  In their first meeting Baltimore used an unbalanced line to establish their running game - but the Browns have seen that, and it will not work this time around.   We’re projecting a flip/flop of their first meeting - and will call the Browns to win by a dominating 28-10 outcome.

St. Louis (ML)(+):  Rams have flipped the switch, they’ve had the personnel, and now they’re playing with a purpose.  They were ROBBED last week at New England - and Arizona is going to pay for it this weekend.  Both teams have advantages they can exploit… (but personally my gut says it will be an Under game).  We see this one on the scorecasting models as a tightly fought contest; but the situation heavily favors the Rams to outright win at home.

Green Bay (ML)(+):  The Packers come in off a bye after dominating Indy - and just got to see the best Tennessee has to offer.  Jeff Fisher is coming in off a key match-up, with one less day to prepare.  The scorecasting models project the Packers to cover,  and the Pack do have some things they can do on offense to take advantage… something tells me this should be an A-play - but it might be safer to take the generous points.

Also Likes: Indianapolis, Minnesota,  Buffalo

We are going into week nine, just about the halfway point of the season and last week came in straight up as a reasonable 9 – 5 the against the spread results were somewhat less successful at 6 – 7 – 1. For the season the results are results to 72 – 44 straight up and 59 – 53 – 4 versus the spread, so still above average here for the season.

Please note that these picks are not to be confused with the real business of Football Forecasters and are not the recommended picks. Personally I do not bet football and anyone who has followed this little feature for any length of time will understand why. I participate in a pick’em league and these choices reflect those picks though my league choices are subject to last minute changes based on the latest injury and practice reports. Generally, these picks will appear on Wednesday evenings and for their limited amusement value.

Green Bay at Tennessee – Green Bay is coming off their bye week and needed the rest; they need to get the defensive secondary healthy. Tennessee will not challenge with the pass though, with one of the better running attacks in the NFL, Titans win 27 – 20.

Arizona at St Louis – The Rams are playing better under Haslett, the defense is nicked and on offense a lot will depend on the status of Jackson. Arizona has been explosive offensively and have all the weapons, defense is inconsistent Cardinals win 24 – 20.

Houston at Minnesota – Houston has three wins in a row against modest competition; this will be a more serious challenge. Minnesota is coming off their bye week; while they have not played particularly well at home they have a match up advantage to exploit here, Vikings win 20 – 17.

Baltimore at Cleveland – Baltimore has the most offense defense in the league though their secondary has problems. Cleveland has sputtered a bit but they can defend the run and throw deep which is a matchup advantage in this game, Browns win 24 – 21.

Jacksonville at Cincinnati – The Bengals have just been all around bad, Palmer’s absence limits the offensive potential and the defense is terrible. Jacksonville has also had issues; but are starting to get healthy, Jaguars win 28 – 21.

Detroit at Chicago – Detroit is playing better it appears but they have severe deficiencies on both sides of the ball that that they just do not have the talent to address. Chicago has produced a solid offense but their defense has been mediocre, Bears win 28 – 14.

New York Jets at Buffalo – The Jets have been somewhat flat in their last few games playing well enough to win against moderate opposition; they need a better effort. Buffalo has been fighting some defensive injuries but should be getting better, Bills win 24 – 20.

Tampa Bay at Kansas City – The Chiefs have limited talent and have had some bad breaks as well but they are still playing hard. Tampa Bay has a very good defense but their offense can be a bit one-dimensional at times, this should not be one of those times, Buccaneers win 24 – 17.

Miami at Denver – Denver has been genuinely bad against the run and have some other defensive injuries of concern (the brothers Bailey). Miami has the ability to mount a good running game even without gadgets and the passing game is developing, Miami wins 21 – 17.

Atlanta at Oakland – The Raiders have an inconsistent offense that leaves their defense on the field to long. Atlanta is doing better than expected, their talent has developed quickly and team chemistry seems to be good, also they have been remarkably healthy, Falcons win 20 – 14.

Dallas at New York Giants – The Cowboys won last week on a solid defensive effort but the offense seems to be dormant without Romo. The Giants are playing well offensively ddespite the distraction that Burress has created, the defense keys around the pass rush, Giants win 28 – 21.

Philadelphia at Seattle – Seattle had a good game last week, something of a rarity this season, the defense is erratic to say the least. Philadelphia can also be erratic but at this point is getting healthy, the offense matches up well here, Eagles win 28 – 20.

New England at Indianapolis – This game has a little less luster than it looked like when the schedule first came out as both teams have had to make adjustments due to injuries. Indianapolis had a difficult Monday Night game but figure to bounce back here, Colts win 28 – 21.

Pittsburgh at Washington – The Redskins are playing well and the new offensive scheme has been very effective. Pittsburgh has some issues on the offensive line, Rothlisberger ia taking a lot of sacks and even more hits but is still standing, Steelers win 24 – 21.

There’s nothing like first impressions - I remember the first time I saw my wife - that little ass sashaying up the sidewalk. I had to catch up, timing going into the school with her at the same time - the rest is history.  It was funny when my Mom asked me how I  met Rose - and me being a middle age adult saw no reason to not tell the truth!  I’m a firm believer in first impressions, both with people and investments - that said you have to look past the cover and dig deep if you want to make a sharp play.

I look forward to Wednesday’s, that’s the day when Allen, Dale, and I all come together with our picks to start the “sifting” process.  I have several criteria for a pick to make it through the sort: 1) Try and play on teams playing well.  2) When looking at dogs try and find the ones that can outright win.  3) Almost never “take the points” - instead try and “pick the winner”. 

My first impressions in the NFL this week:  Cleveland has been playing good ball over the past several weeks.  There’s some shit going on in the front office - and GM Savage looks like an idiot; but on the field Derek Anderson is starting to come around.  If he was just a tad more accurate I’d feel more confident….  Nevertheless I’m taking a hard look at Cleveland on the ML at home - when Anderson is “on” and he sees Edwards in the vertical game they are deadly - and that’s Baltimore’s major vulnerability.  The NY Jets defense is vulnerable to the long ball, and their offense doesn’t click.  Buffalo is coming home off a division loss and that’s always a nice situation… on the other hand NY may have been looking past KC last week… but I’ll be looking hard at Buffalo.  St. Louis is playing very well lately, they’ve had the personnel but now Haslett has them playing with determination.  Hate playing against another team that is also playing well, Arizona, but the number and situation favors the home team playing in a dome.  This one looks to be a shoot-out, but in the end the Rams look like a solid play on the ML.  The Giants at home with that D-line should just maul whoever is playing QB for the Cowboys.  The Cowboys O-line simply isn’t that good, Romo’s maneuvarability masks their weakness.  As long as the number is under double digits I’m interested in NY - my first impression is they’re going to pound the shit out of them on Sunday.  Finally, proceed with caution if you are looking at Atlanta this week.  They’re a young team going coast to coast, and this is their second road game in a row - which is usually a bad spot.  On the other hand they had some very bad calls go against them last week in Philly, that game was closer than the final score indicated.  The Falcons are a team on the rise, and they’ll be playoff contenders before Oakland, but this might be a flat spot. 

We haven’t crunched through the numbers yet, but these are the teams “in the discussion” to make my short list.  Check back Wednesday night for Dale’s “office pool picks”, and Friday morning for Big Al’s college picks - We’ll have the NFL picks up no later than Saturday morning.   Finally, one of the things I had to convince my wife of before she would marry me is that I was a responsible punter.  She doesn’t mind my football hobby - but is concerned that I might be leading others astray: So please, if you haven’t done it yet, read my Money Management tips linked at the top of the front page.  There is much more to being a successful wagerer than picking winners.

Have a great week,

Kurt Schumacher

Big Al will be at Husky stadium this week to watch the Notre Dame game.  His comment to me was it’s not a game I’d bet on but if Notre Dame doesn’t turn the ball over they should win by three touchdowns.   On to the picks:

COLLEGE:

BALL STATE - A+ rated pick:  Cardinals are explosive on offensive, they’re at home off a bye.  EMU struggles against good teams, and this is their 3rd road game in their last 4 contests…. Cardinals by 34.

OKLAHOMA STATE (+)(ML):  Cowboys are solid on both sides of the ball, they’ll give the Longhorns a better game than the Sooners did - and they’re getting generous points.  This one will be decided by a TD, and it could go either way (but we’d take the points).

ARIZONA (+):  Arizona is very good, and they match-up well here - and Pac-10 road foes tend to give USC trouble.  This one projects to be much closer than the odds makers have the line at.  Take the points.

ALSO LIKES: Purdue (ML), TCU, Virginia (+), Navy, Kentucky, Arkansas, Notre Dame

NFL:

JACKSONVILLE - A Play:  Jaguars are a power rushing team coming in off a bye, and get two of their starting offensive linemen back for this contest.  Consider the Jags were beginning to re-assert their offensive line dominance with 3 of their starters out, and the Browns have the 26th ranked run defense… Jacksonville by 10.

BALTIMORE:  The Ravens have a dominating defense that excels at stopping the run.  Their defensive vulnerability is against great passing schemes - Oakland is hardly that.  Ravens win by 10 - 13.

NY GIANTS (ML)(+):  This should be a great game to watch.  NY is a power rushing team facing a very stingy run defense - but the Giants can also throw when they need too - and Pittsburgh is vulnerable to the long ball.  The struggling Steelers O-line will be facing the best defensive front they’ve seen all year.

ALSO LIKES: Miami (ML)

We are into week seven and another week of mediocrity as the straight up results came in at 8 – 6 the against the spread results were an even 7 – 7. For the season the results are results to 63 – 39 straight up and 53 – 46 – 3 versus the spread. The strange results continue as several teams seem to be in full schizophrenic mode, there is no telling which personality is going to show up on any given Sunday. So the predictions are out there in fear and trepidation as we wait for whatever strangeness this week brings.

Please note that these picks are not to be confused with the real business of Football Forecasters and are not the recommended picks. Personally I do not bet football and anyone who has followed this little feature for any length of time will understand why. I participate in a pick’em league and these choices reflect those picks though my league choices are subject to last minute changes based on the latest injury and practice reports. Generally, these picks will appear on Wednesday evenings and for their limited amusement value.

Oakland at Baltimore – Oakland found an overtime win last week as the defense maintained a steady defensive pressure. Baltimore is still one of best defense in the league and proved that in their taming of the wildcat, Ravens win 21 – 10.

Arizona at Carolina – Arizona is coming off their bye week and should be well rested, they have a potent offense but the defense has been inconsistent. Carolina is a well-balanced team that can bring pressure and defend the pass, Panthers win 28 – 21.

Tampa Bay at Dallas – Dallas has been playing very inconsistently and the injury to Romo is of concern clearly, they are less effective without him. Tampa Bay has been playing very well in recent weeks with strong team efforts, Bucs win 21 – 20.

Washington at Detroit – Detroit has been playing better in the past few weeks, they would almost have to though. Washington is coming off a bye week and has adapted to their new offensive scheme well while playing solid defense, Redskins win 28 – 14.

Cincinnati at Houston – Cincinnati has a number of issues on both sides of the ball and a variety of injuries to deal with. Houston won its first game after some close calls but can be amazingly inconsistent offensively and simply bad defensively, Texans win 24 – 21.

Buffalo at Miami – Miami has been one of the surprises of the season by already exceeding last season’s win total. Buffalo has been winning with solid team efforts, good defensive play and solid play by Trent Edwards, Bills win 24 – 21.

St Louis at New England – The Rams are coming off back-to-back wins and are playing closer to their talent level since changing coaches. New England has issues as injuries continue to deplete their offensive talent, Patriots win 30 – 20.

San Diego at New Orleans – (More or Less) These teams are going to London for this game so the concept of home team is inappropriate. New Orleans and San Diego have been remarkably inconsistent with injuries figuring into that, Chargers win 24 – 21.

Kansas City at New York Jets – Kansas City is on its third quarterback and their primary offensive weapon may be facing a suspension. The Jets appeared to be offensively challenged last week but the Chiefs can make anyone look better, Jets win 28 – 14.

Atlanta at Philadelphia – Atlanta is one of the surprises of the season thus far but their most difficult games are in front of them. Philadelphia is coming off their bye and should have some of their receivers returning to the lineup this week, 28 – 21.

Cleveland at Jacksonville – Cleveland has not lived up to the unrealistic expectations for this season; they have a more difficult schedule and have had injury issues. Jacksonville has also had problems meeting expectations with a number of offensive line injuries, Jaguars win 24 – 20.

New York Giants at Pittsburgh – The Steelers lead their division and playing well, they are starting a very difficult stretch of games here. The Giants seem to be finding distractions with Burress providing some drama but the defense will be the key here, Giants win 21 – 17.

Seattle at San Francisco – Seattle has been struggling with injuries to their wide receivers and quarterbacks and the defensive play has been under the talent level. San Francisco has changed coaches and is playing at home, forty-niners win 21 – 17.

Indianapolis at Tennessee – The Colts have been inconsistent defensively which is somewhat expected, their offensive issues are not. Tennessee has a very good defense and a a great running game facing a terrible rushing defense, Titans win 27 – 24.

Reviewing the injury lists there are 3 teams installed as home favorites who have issues this week:  Carolina, Chicago, and Buffalo.

Carolina, a power rushing team, is without two starting offensive linemen: C Kalil, and RT Otah.  This is going to make it difficult for them to establish their running game, and keep Brees and company off the field.  New Orleans is a 3 point road dog, and there may be a little value taking them on the ML (+130) in this contest as an “also like” rated play.

Chicago, who have been vulnerable over the top, are without their two starting cornerbacks: Vasher and Tillman.  We saw what Tampa was able to do to the Bears with their short pass attack.  Minnesota, a 3 point dog, may be able to go long with the Ferotte and Berrian combo… I won’t be surprised if they outright win. There is solid value at +130 on the ML.

Buffalo is without 3 key starters in there contest against San Diego: CB Terrance McGee, DE Aaron Schobel, and C Melvin Fowler.  San Diego is without WR Chris Chambers, but unheralded backup Malcolm Floyd is more than able to fill his shoes - and he has a nice matchup on rookie corner Leodis McKelvin.  HC Dick Jauron is not known as a “scheme guy”, and it’s doubtful the Bills have cooked anything new up for the Chargers in the extra week.  Of all the injury scenario advantages San Diego’s is the one I like best.  This should be a great game to watch, and I won’t be surprised if San Diego wins outright, it’s a solid play at +110 on the ML.

These 3 NFL contests are “also like” rated updates.

Peace,

Kurt

We go into week 7 off our first losing weekend of the season.  We have a great college A+ rated opinion to get us back on track.  When the NFL Friday injury report rolls in later this afternoon I’ll have an update for our NFL action.

COLLEGE

OKLAHOMA STATE - A+ rated pick - Cowboys have Big 12’s most potent offense, and those stats are not a mirage.  Oklahoma State is doing it both on the ground and over the top, with a well balanced attack.  They’re averaging 56 points a game at home, and should have no trouble reaching that number against an average Bear defense.  Our scorecast models project Baylor to post 24-32 points.  This is the Cowboys homecoming game, and there should be no emotional letdown in this spot.  Oklahoma State by 28.

PENN STATE - Big Al’s “other pounder” on the board.  Nittany Lions operate a precision spread attack that doesn’t know how to slow down.  They have a fundamental match-up advantage with the Big 10’s most potent pass attack, taking on the conferences 3rd worst pass defense.  Wolverine’s look lost running the spread, and they won’t be able to stay with Penn when this becomes a shootout.  Our call is Penn State by 28-35.

DUKE (ML)(+): The Blue Devils come in off a bye, off a shut-out loss - we like that recipe for team focus with an extra week to prepare.  These days the Hurricane of Miami play more like a tropical breeze from Southern California.  Statistically speaking we project Duke to post between 21 and 31 points; while Miami should post between 21 and 31 points.  Hey - that’s a draw, so we’ll lay our wages on the home team to pull the outright upset - a very nice Money Line value play on the home dog.

Also Likes: BYU, NC State (+)(ML), Navy (ML), Rice, Virginia(+)(ML), Texas A&M (+), No. Illinois

NFL

INDIANAPOLIS :  A rare road favorite we like.  Indy certainly has vulnerabilities up the gut against the run, but Green Bay’s rush attack has gone AWOL.  On the other side of the ball the Pack secondary is banged up. Green Bay plays press coverage, but without cornerback Al Harris (lacerated spleen) they don’t have the personnel to man-up against the Colts 3-wide.   The fundamental match-up advantage for Indy dictate this would normally be an “A” play, however, the Colts have the Titans on deck….

KANSAS CITY (+): We like the points in this spot.  Consider Tennessee is the lone unbeaten heading into week 7, AND they have a Monday night match-up with arch-rival Indianapolis on deck.  The Vegas line is set almost exclusively by the numbers (and we don’t pretend to have a superior scorecasting algorithm than Vegas). Still, my theory is sometimes the line itself impacts the psyche, and the outcome, of the game.  The Chiefs are a large home dog on the Vegas board, getting over a TD.  Not withstanding the suspension of RB Larry Johnson, we’ll bet they’ll come to play and keep this one close.

Also Likes:  Houston, Tampa, Cleveland (+)

Peace,

Kurt

We like BYU and NC State as “Also Like” rated plays.  A 2% two-teamer, with BYU on the ML and the Wolfpack with the points, is a nice play.

We are into week seven and another week of mediocrity as the straight up results came in at 7 – 7 the against the spread results were an even worse 5 – 9 though it was my first losing week. There were some very peculiar results this week and last minute results abounded but that is not an excuse, these kind of weeks happen, and often seem to happen to me. For the season the results are results to 55 – 33 straight up and 46 – 39 – 3 versus the spread.

Please note that these picks are not to be confused with the real business of Football Forecasters and are not the recommended picks. Personally I do not bet football and anyone who has followed this little feature for any length of time will understand why. I participate in a pick’em league and these choices reflect those picks though my league choices are subject to last minute changes based on the latest injury and practice reports. Generally, these picks will appear on Wednesday evenings and for their limited amusement value.

San Diego at Buffalo – San Diego makes the long trip to the East coast after a very nice team effort and important psychological win last week. Buffalo is coming off the bye week and looks like they match up well here, Bills win 24 – 20.

New Orleans at Carolina – Carolina had a dismal performance last week on the road and could not seem to get untracked offensively. The Saints had no such problems and could be getting back two top offensive weapons (Colston and Shockey), Saints win 28 – 24.

Minnesota at Chicago – The Chicago defense has failed to protect leads in all of their losses so far this season; the offense has played better than expected. The Minnesota running game matches up well against the undersized defensive line, Vikings win 24 – 21.

Pittsburgh at Cincinnati – Cincinnati has had a variety of injury problems that have contributed to their disappointing season and it looks like Palmer will not be back for this one. Pittsburgh is at their best when power-blocking using the run to set up the pass, Steelers win 28 – 17.

Tennessee at Kansas City – Kansas City has had the bye week to fix their run defense, a tall order in that period. Tennessee is the last undefeated team in the NFL at this time, they run the ball and they defend the run a match up advantage this week, Titans win 24 – 10.

Baltimore at Miami – Miami has made quite a splash running the wildcat, which has seemed to confuse the entire league. The Baltimore offense has been erratic and cannot stand turnovers, but the defense can react to the unusual with speed and force, Ravens win 21 – 14.

San Francisco at New York Giants – San Francisco travels to the East coast and are playing inconsistently though the Martz offense is producing points and sacks. The Giants had no sacks last week and will be looking to turn that around in this game, Giants win 28 – 17.

Dallas at St Louis – St Louis won their first game this year a couple of games faster than last season but still have a lot to fix. Dallas lost players this week to injury and suspension and added another wide receiver and putting the new pieces together will be a challenge, Cowboys win 24 – 20.

Detroit at Houston – Last week the Detroit defense played their best game of the season but the offense was disappointing as run by their third-string quarterback. Houston won their first game of the season coming from behind; it should be easier this week, Texans win 24 – 10.

Indianapolis at Green Bay – Green Bay has some injury problems on defense both players who are out and limited. The Indianapolis offense was back in form last week, which certainly is a scary situation for a healthy defense, Colts win 24 – 20.

New York Jets at Oakland – Oakland at this point is going to need more than a coaching change to get a win. The Jets have been inconsistent offensively; they are a team that needs to establish the passing game to run, Jets win 28 – 20.

Cleveland at Washington – Cleveland has won two games in a row and are coming off a short week, the offense has been much more effective. Washington lost last week in a sloppy game but are better than that effort indicated, Redskins win 24 – 20.

Seattle at Tampa Bay – Seattle has never traveled well and the trips to the East coast have been uniformly disappointing. Tampa Bay is playing well their running game is potent and the passing game is developing, Bucs win 28 – 17.

Denver at New England – The Patriot pass defense is very vulnerable, the secondary is mediocre and they are not getting consistent pressure to the quarterback. Denver has a very potent passing attack but have some injuries in the receiving corps, Broncos win 24 – 20.

We have 1 late Saturday play to upgrade, and a couple NFL injury developments to bring to your attention:

TULSA - They’re going to put up 50-60 points on SMU.  June Jones doesn’t have the players yet to implement his offensive strategies, so don’t look for the Mustangs to go off here.  We like the Hurricane by 35 points.

OVER Dallas/Arizona - Both of these secondary’s were in the bottom half of the NFL statistically. Both teams have potent pass attacks; and now both squads look to be without starters in what were already weak units.  Dallas top coverman Terrance Newman is out, as well as SS Roy Williams; Arizona’s entire secondary reads like a mash unit, with SS Adrian Wilson, CBs Rod Hood and Eric Green all slowed by injury.   We see both QBs having great days in what should be a high scoring shoot out.

Also Like DOWNGRADE:   We’re taking Jacksonville off our list of picks - too many injuries in the backfield and defensive line to rely on.  Denver should be able to move the ball over the top, and the Jags do not have enough offensive to keep up if the Bronco pass attack gets untracked.    Also - Carolina’s underrated All-Pro caliber center Ryan Kalil has missed practice all week. Look for the Panther power rush attack to suffer on the road at Tampa, as well as line adjustment issues.  Tampa has some injury concerns of their own, but none as big as Kalil.  Keep in mind the Vegas line usually does not adjust for a center being out, which a sharp punter can take advantage of.  We like Tampa here by 3.

Peace,

Kurt