Football Forecasters

I’ve heard a lot of discussion on ESPN talk radio this week about Alabama upsetting Clemson.  I just don’t see it happening.  To be fair Big Al sees the potential for an upset by the tide, but likes Memphis getting a TD better.  There’s also the Saban curse (being named the most powerful man in sports - now that’s bulletin board material).  The betting value is in the line.  A close game in college is often decided by 3-6 points, Memphis is getting a TD and also has the history against Mississippi.  While Alabama is getting 4.5 points on the road against what looks to be a superior opponent.  Keep in mind the folks at ESPN motives might have something to do with hyping viewer interest in the game.  We don’t make an investment based on interest in a game.  We’ll stick with our Memphis pick and say later this afternoon in a game flying under the radar they’ll play the Rebels tougher than Alabama plays the Tigers.

Kurt

8/30/08   A Plays

Memphis (+) Tigers are getting a TD playing at Ole Miss.  Big Al says these two teams always play each other tough and this will be a much closer contest than that.  There’s a lot of build-up over Houston Nutt arriving in Mississippi - but when it gets time to playing football this will be a great game to watch, and the outcome will be in doubt till the end.  We expect this one to be decided by a FG. Take the generous points for a 4% of bankroll pick.

Middle Tennessee State (+)(ML)  The Blue Raiders got spanked at Troy last year 45-7.  They should be an improved team this year (they were solid last season), while Troy will be coming in without their top two rushers, top two receivers, and starting QB from last year.  We smell revenge.  MTS is getting almost a TD as a home dog, and Troy has a tougher time on the road in the Sun Belt, we won’t be surprised if MTS outright wins.

Texas  The Longhorns don’t mind running up the score, and they will have opportunities to do so against Howard Schnellenberger’s overmatched Owls.  Texas is Big Al’s thumper of the week, calling a 35 point Longhorn smackdown.

Also Likes:  Kinda like Michigan to win by 7-10 over Utah.  They’ve been practicing against the spread offense all summer, and won’t be surprised by anything the Utes throw at em.

9/7/08  A rated NFL Pick:

Opening weekend we really like Detroit.  They’re only giving up a FG on the road, in a dome, to a team that has totally rebuilt… and looks to be stating a rookie QB and a rookie LT - ouch.  HC Marinelli finally has an OC who will run a smash mouth run attack offense, but it’s the passing game where the Lions will have major matchup advantages over the Falcons secondary.  Look for Detroit to pass their way to a 10 point win.

Kurt Schumacher

Oh it’s painful.  Accepting that this Sportsbook is not going to payout.  After Pinnacle stopped accepting action from US bettors I’ve struggled to find a mainstay online book.  Bodog pays out, but the lines are damn sharp; and they seldom offer moneyline plays on anything worth while.  This is a tough business and betting into tight lines with restricted options makes it a losing proposition - so despite their good reputation as quick payers I don’t like using Bodog. 

Several years ago Canbet changed ownership, and they’ve never been the same.  The lines have gotten tighter, lines are posted later in the week, and the moneyline options limited. Still, they have a good reputation for quick and reliable payouts.

I’m looking at trying 5dimes.com as my new book this year. I’ve done a little background checking and my initial reaction is they look OK.  If any of you have used them before give me a heads up on your experience with them.

In any case I’ve been asking for my money from BetUs.com for 6 months now.  They haven’t paid out a dime and it’s not looking good.  I haven’t even been able to get my initial deposit back!  They have no online redemption scripts, you have to call to make a withdrawal, of course there is no record of your requests.  I’ve given them every chance to make good on my account.  If any of you are using them and have had better luck I’d appreciate hearing about it.  In the meantime, proceed with extreme caution if you’re thinking about using BetUs.

Gene Upshaw died this morning of pancreatic cancer. He had a number of roles within the NFL including being the best offensive guards ever to play and being elected to the Hall of Fame.  Most recently, he has served well as the head of the NFLPA for the past twenty-five years.

He had received a lot of criticism about being too friendly with management but the players appear to have done well on his watch. He also caught a great deal of flack for the handling of old-timers who gave so much to the game and left it in varying stages of decrepitude. That was probably not entirely deserved as many of those players had retired before the players union ever existed.

What Upshaw really did was act as a steward of the game.  His ability to obtain net gains for the players without disruptive strikes is one of the things that has kept football continuously gaining fan base over the past couple of decades. The importance of this to the status of the game today is largely unrealized.

With owners opting out of the last collective bargaining agreement, this is a particularly bad time to be shifting the leadership of the NFLPA. The game will be much different without a salary cap and the competitive balance will likely suffer. Gene Upshaw will be missed; perhaps more than anyone can foresee now.

Watching the injury reports in training camp is often an exercise in futility. Some veteran players seem to be looking for a way to get some rest and go on and off the injury list for no particular reason. Other injuries appear relatively insignificant but are the harbingers of season long problems. Injuries to the back are almost always going to have season long (sometimes career long) implications but foot and hamstring problems can be an either/or kind of issue.

Hamstring injuries can be particularly problematic for wide receivers. These injuries are actual small muscle tears created by the force of impact of the runners foot on the turf which in a straight line run can be three or four times the player’s weight. Add the torque created by making a cut and the mechanics of the injury are obvious. Like most tears, it becomes easy to extend the tear if it does not heal completely. It is difficult to tell exactly when such an injury is actually fully healed and both the athlete and the team are anxious to get back on the field. Of course, after not running the players are more easily fatigued and can injure themselves in some new way as well.

In training camp there is one way to assess the seriousness of some injuries because of the player’s status. Injuries to any player in a position battle that causes them to miss significant practice time are usually a concern. You do not want to give the other player the extra reps. This applies to rookies and free agent also; they are learning a new system and need the reps to establish themselves.

When you look at injuries to established players, you have to look at what happens when they come back from an injury. If they immediately return to contact drills, you can discount the injury’s seriousness somewhat. When they do not get contact work and particularly a back or wide receiver who only does straight line running on the sidelines you may be looking at a potentially chronic condition.

Pay attention now so you are not surprised during the season.  We picked the Jaguars and while they were a good pick at the time their problems at wide receiver is making one of us (me) more than a little nervous. The amount of time Porter has lost in trying to learn a new offense is worrisome and this hammy looks like it may be one of those that goes for a good chunck of the season and Reggie Williams starting off training camp with arthroscopic knee surgery, at least he knows the offense.

Well we Favre landed where we thought he would. It makes sense from the Packer view; he is in an entirely different conference playing on a team they could only meet in the Super Bowl and they get something in return. They can hope that their team will now be allowed to focus on football and everyone will get behind Aaron Rodgers and at least give him a chance. In the end, this was the right move long term for the team. Favre has been playing the prima donna for the past few years and it was time for the franchise to move on and find a new identity.

From Favre’s standpoint, this was the best chance he was going to see. The team is close to contending and the offensive line is very talented. Favre has the potential to make that line substantially better because of his quick release. He is going to have to learn an entirely new offensive verbiage and will be playing in a somewhat different system. This means a real commitment to study which is going to end up being the true measure of how much he really wants to play again. He is unlikely to get much slack from the New York press if he comes out throwing interceptions. From a guy with the thin skin he has shown in the recent dealings with Green Bay this does give one pause for thought.

For the Jets the risk is relatively small, they risk a third round pick if things go badly and certainly get a player who will up the energy of the average fan. If Favre, anxious to prove his critics wrong, learns the system quickly, and plays to last season’s standard, he might be able to get them to the playoffs. The chances of winning the division seem remote but the turn around from last season would be worth the second round pick that would send to Green Bay. It would be nice to see him succeed, my feel is that this is slightly against the odds though but best of luck to everyone.

Can we now return to actual football?