Football Forecasters

OK I cannot help myself any longer. I keep hoping the Favre thing will just go away but it will not. This is a really bad soap opera and frankly Favre is the villain that no one seems to be willing to defy. He was a great quarterback and a lot of fun to watch, his enjoyment of the game on the field was infectious. The problem is that his decision to unretire is essentially selfish and shortsighted.

The Packers had every reason to move on and a need to do so. They need to get the team to coalesce around a new leadership corps and the offense will change to accommodate Rodgers skill set. In addition, they have to learn to work together. The succession process for Rodgers was going to be difficult, now it becomes impossible because the focus keeps being dragged back to Brett, which seems to be what he likes.

Favre wants to start and still has the ability, probably. You see he really has been playing in one system for the past decade or so that has been custom-fitted in that time to his skill set. That has helped him succeed about as much as he has helped the Packers over the years, something to keep in mind. While last season was good, the two prior seasons were mediocre at best. His skills have declined somewhat which is a process that is going to continue.

A team looking to acquire him probably has a two-year window maximum. They will need to be running a similar offense with a similar terminology to what he knows. He also needs to have a solid offensive line in front of him, under pressure he tries to make ill-advised plays rather than throwing the ball away leading to turnovers. This makes Minnesota a tempting place for him to land because of the offensive coordinator and offensive line.

Obviously, Green Bay is unlikely to allow a move within the division and it also makes giving Favre his unconditional release unlikely. Favre is obviously in this for himself, his disregard for his team and teammates seems clear. It will be even a bigger issue if he does end up in the Packer training camp so a deal will need to be cut hopefully soon.  The number of teams who will both meet Favre’s requirements (he can start and the team is competitive for a playoff spot) and Ninnesota’s for compensation and outside their division at least is not high.  (The Jets might be the best mutual trade partner.)

Still for my money it would have been better for him to go out at, or at least near, the top of his game.  Players who hang on after their skills start to deteriorate are kind of sad to watch.  They fail the standard that they themselves set and become kind of a distorted echo of themselves.

We spend a lot of energy digging to find underdog betting gems on the money line… looking for “value” picks rather than consistently betting the favorites. In our NFL division previews & team reports we diligently poor over schedules and analyze strength on weakness match-up advantegeous. Typically we find that the superior calculated wager is NOT the team favored by Vegas to win the division. For example in the NFC West preview our total win/loss scorecasting model projects St. Louis (at 6.5 to 1 odds) is a slightly better value play over Arizona (at 3.25 to 1 odds) to win the division; while the Vegas number has Seattle favored to win it all (at 1.83 to 1 odds).  The NFC West is a toss-up, with 3 teams having a realistic shot at winning the division.

So when we dug into our NFC North division preview we fully expected to discover a value pick flying under the radar. But the numbers tell us the odds on Vegas favorite, Minnesota, is the smart play to make.   The NFC North story lines are the same from top to bottom - every team going into 2008 is emphasizing a strong defense and ball control offense.  Nobody within the division is going to do that better than Minnesota. And the prospects for a surprise QB breaking out offensively do not look good.  

Schedule wise the NFC North matches up against the NFC East and AFC South - a tough draw as both divisions are very good to above average from top to bottom - outside of Atlanta you can’t really pencil in an automatic win anywhere in the common opponents schedule.   The Vikings do appear to have a slight advantage in drawing Arizona and the NY Giants (final home game), both should be winnable contests.  While Green Bay draws Seattle and Dallas, and Chicago gets St. Louis and Philly; which they’ll do very well to split.  I should mention Detroit, they do get winnable contests in San Fran and Washington and have arguably the best quarterback in the division; but it doesn’t look like the team is ready to turn the corner, in fact we think their still bumping the bottom, with no upturn in sight.

The strongest strengths for Minnesota will be their superior unit-on-unit match-ups within their own division. Where they should go at least 4-2 , and more likely 5-1.  Consider that Minnesota has unarguably the strongest offensive and defensive lines in the division, and perhaps most importantly an identity - a theme.  This team loves to run the ball, they do it well, and they are deep at running back. They have the best run defense in the league, and have added a premier pass rushing threat in DE Jared Allen to shore up their pass defense.  Their loan apparent weak spot is over the top, but no one in the division has the elite pass attack to take advantage of that one potential weakness. 

It doesn’t matter that the Vikings are rolling with 3-year starter Tavaris Jackson at QB.  The offensive line and the running game is what makes the Vikings tick.  And nobody in the NFC North is going to stop them imposing their will on the rest of the division.  Jackson is in his 3rd year, a time when most quarterbacks start to “get it”.  Despite his relative inexperience he does bring a measure of mobility to the position other QBs in the division lack.  Supported by a solid defense, and a superior offensive line, there is no reason to expect Jackson can’t manage this team.  An attractive factor about Minnesota is their success does not depend on any 1 player. Vegas has installed Minnesota as a 2.5 to 1 pick to win the division, this time our money is on the favorite - bank it.

Kurt Schumacher

Chief handicapper - Football Forecasters

Wow.  This is currently going down as a “win win” trade in major media publications. But my take is the Saints made out like the Devil. Consider that they were willing to trade their 2008 2nd round pick for TE Jeremy Shockey, and they ended up netting him, with no adjustments to his contract, for a 2009 2nd rounder and a 5th rounder - that’s a bargain.  It sure looks like the Giants, realizing the value Shockey had for the Saints, were holding out for a first round draft pick. But when Miami traded DE Jason Taylor to Washington for a 2nd rounder in 2009 and a 6th rounder in 2010, the market for All-Pro caliber disgruntled players was set.  It didn’t help that Shockey reportedly had a shouting match run-in with the Giant team President, who was undoubtedly ready to move him.

Shockey is a vocal, high energy impact player - who was specifically drafted in the first round by NY for those very characteristics. Recall Shockey’s well publicized 1st day of training camp slugfest with linebacker Brandon Short: “The best fight I’ve ever seen”, according to Michael Strahan.  Strahan later diplomatically stated there “was no winner”.  But NY head coach Tom McCoughlin seemed elated the altercation took place, he described his first thoughts after pulling Shockey off Short in the training camp fight as “My Man has arrived”.   You need players like Jeremy Shockey on your team, guys like that keep practice intense; and practice is where championships are won.

The NY Giants specifically drafted Jeremy Shockey because back then they were perceived as soft. HC Coughlin wanted an energizer, someone who would maintain the focus and energy in practice and throughout the season.  Shockey is all that.  But he was dissed by the Giants management when they wouldn’t let him be with the team (stand on the sidelines) for the Superbowl game.  Shockey never forgot. Now he’s got a chip on his shoulder.  Put Shockey in a true west coast offense, like New Orleans runs under HC Sean Payton (Shockey’s first OC with NY), with Pro Bowl quarterback Drew Brees, and you have the recipe for a potentially explosive offense.

The Saints have been perceived as a soft team, much like NY was perceived when Coughlin first took over. Jeremy Shockey is just the type of position player New Orleans needs, who fits exceedingly well for that offense to take the next step. He’ll make every player on that already good offense better. Consider that Tampa Bay, the defending NFC South division champ, runs a cover two defense - and the best passing lanes against the cover two are a TE down the seam, and you see why a Shockey is so valuable to the Saints.  Getting him for next years 2nd round pick instead of this years was a bargain.

As been noted many times the NFL is a copycat league.  It also is a league where unrealistic expectations abound.  In 2008, we have two perfect cases waiting to disappoint the fans in Miami and Oakland.

Jake Long is not going to reprise the Joe Thomas story of last season. Players like Thomas do not come along very often. His athleticism is not the reason he dominated so well from the start of his rookie season. He had excellent technique and footwork. Most athletic offensive linemen have moderate to lousy technical skills. Because they were athletic, they could get away with poor technique but it takes a while to correct those bad habits for most players. (Some never do.) Jake Long will take a while to develop but should be a very good and perhaps elite tackle eventually but he probably will not start out that way.

The Darren McFadden story is not going to be a repeat of the Adrian Peterson rookie season. Peterson may not be as talented as McFadden but no one is going to confuse the Vikings line with the line that Oakland has. The Vikings have one of the top three offensive lines in the NFL and likely the best power blocking line in the league. The Oakland line improved last season to almost mediocre and with practice might get to average but they are likely to limit McFadden’s rookie year.

A few comments on our 2008 NFL preview of the NFC West. This shapes up to be one of the tighter division battles in the league. Unlike the AFC North, the NFC West has good potential to produce a team with double digit win totals. Because all the teams in that division are relatively weak across the board; if one of them gets their act together on both sides of the ball they could end up dominating the division, a 5-1 (or even 4-2) division record would lead to double digit wins overall.  Seattle is the consensus favorite, but in our preview we point out although the Seahawks have a sound defense the offense has major question marks at every skill position and unit (including the O-line) except QB. And they’ll play a first place division schedule this year.  Nope, this is the year the house the Walrus built crumbles.

Look for the St. Louis Rams and Arizona Cardinals to duke it out for the division title.  Both teams have what project to be strong offensive line units and solid quarterbacks.  The Rams defense projects to be stronger overall than the Cardinals - with a big edge on the defensive line.  That defensive line is a big reason we’re predicting the Rams will come out on top.   The Niners will have a few bright spots, and they’ll be tough at home, but they aren’t even in the discussion for the NFC west title.

2008 NFL training camp starts in 1 week. Coming off a 2007 campaign where we finished with a 70% record with our A+ rated football picks.  My batteries are more than recharged!  We are working hard on those NFL team reports & division previews.  These reports are where we project each teams total wins and losses, compare them to the Vegas line - and make a call on what the best value play is on who to pick to win each division.  The calls we make in these reports are independant of our weekly picks.

Superbowl pick: In the AFC:  Jacksonville will make some noise in the playoffs this year, with that strong running game and Forrest Gregg in charge of the defense I think they could make it all the way to the big game.  San Diego will be strong but I’m not confident Norv Turner can coach with high expectations on the line.  New England will be there… but overall the defense is getting aged, and they have some issues in the secondary that could bite them. Indianapolis is in the discussion of course, but I’m just not feeling them… Jacksonville seems hungrier for it. I’ll have a better feel for the NFC rep after we work through our NFC division previews. But right now I’d take the NFC field rather than Dallas. Primarily because Romo hasn’t won a playoff game before, and I’m starting to think he doesn’t have “it” - that champion makeup.

Superbowl pick:  San Diego over Dallas (subject to daily change without notice)

Lots of our favorite NFL publications are picking the Browns to win the AFC North. Even Vegas is giving them a lot of respect.  The boys who do this for a living have Pittsburgh at 2.10, Cleveland at 2.88, Cincinnati at 6.00 and Baltimore at 10.00 to 1 to win the division.  Our money pick is Cincinnati.  Consider that Pittsburgh faces New England and San Diego as non-common opponents this year, two teams they don’t match up with particularly well, and will likely be installed as dogs. The Steelers defense isn’t what it was just a few short years ago, and the offensive line may take a step back this year.  In fact we see them passing the ball more than fans are used to; in what should be a very tough road division.  Poor Cleveland - they have the task of competing against one of the tougher overall schedules in football.  They draw Buffalo and Denver as their non-common opponents, a tough draw where they’ll do very well to split, and we won’t be surprised if they drop them both.  Then you have Cincinnati - our scorecasting models have them winning 9 games this year, and the AFC North.  Consider this: If the Bengals split their division schedule, and win the games they should be favored, they can easily reach the 9 win benchmark we think will win the division. Cincinnati draws Kansas City and the NY Jets as non-common opponents, they have good match-ups there and should be favored in both contests.  Carson Palmer is two years removed from ACL surgery, he’s surrounded by quality skill position players, and he should be performing behind what we forecast will be a dominating O-line.  Vegas has the Bengals over and under posted at 7.5 wins.  Didn’t it seem like just a season ago they were everybodies dark horse to make the Superbowl? Cincinnati has just enough run defense that they’ll slow down the opposition, and enough offensiver fire power to go all the way - we like the OVER here as a strong play.  Finally, there is Baltimore, they might actually split their non-common opponent schedule, but they’ll get killed in the division; the Ravens aren’t even in the discussion for what is a wide open AFC North battle.