In the Conference round the straight up was a split at 1 – 1, bring the playoff record to 7-3. Against the spread the record was also split 0 – 1 – 1 so the record there is 3 – 7 – 1.

The Super Bowl has some interesting potential to be a very competitive game or perhaps not. The teams appear balanced but this is also a game where turnovers are likely to figure in heavily given that these are two of the most physical defenses in the NFL. That could lead to a lop-sided game if early mistakes allow one or the other team to control the tempo of the game and put the other team in catch up mode.

The standard disclaimer goes like this; these picks are for amusement value only. They are not to be confused with the recommended picks of the site.

Super Bowl

Baltimore at San Francisco – Baltimore is certainly the team that has been hot in the playoffs this season a trend that has defined the winner in the past few Super Bowls as the regular season seems to be less and less predictive. Baltimore was a substantial underdog in both of their last two games but they have played solid football against very good teams.

Offensively they have reorganized the offensive line and it has worked out well surprisingly well for them. Line play during the season was inconsistent but in the playoffs it has been solid. They will be tested again; this is a better run blocking line than pass blocking line. The play of Flacco has been very good; he has a big arm and can stretch a defense but historically he does not play as well if defenders can get to his feet.

Defensively Baltimore has been helped by the return of Lewis, his physical play has been good but his leadership and experience are more important qualities at this point. They are not the defensive force that they once were but still have weapons at every level. There are no teams in the AFC that have the type of quarterback back play that they will have to counter in the Super Bowl. They certainly have the discipline to address the read option but do they have the speed anymore.

San Francisco has had some ups and downs in the playoffs. The defense has given up some plays but has overall played quite well. The offense has been explosive at times and Kaepernick has played very well given his limited starting experience.

San Francisco is a running team; they run to set up the pass. Kaepernick adds to the running game with the read option and has shown excellent judgment there. He has a big arm and can stretch the field; his accuracy is good but most of the pass plays run simple but well-designed without a lot of sequential reads. The offensive line play has been at a very high level throughout the year and the matchup in the trenches will be critical (both ways).

The San Francisco defense is also loaded; the defensive line is particularly solid at all positions and is strong up the middle. The pass defense is generally good and they play a lot of man principles and are physical with receivers coming off of the line of scrimmage. They will need to be careful of that against Boldin who is strong off of the line though not a threat to break plays on his speed but it may through Smith off of his game.

This will be a game where mistakes are going to be the difference the question is who will make the “last” mistake. The overall talent advantage goes to San Francisco both offensively and defensively though special team play is an area where Baltimore is substantially better. Baltimore also has the emotional edge which is real but difficult to quantify. The NFL game is quarterback dependent these days and there are questions galore there. Flacco has been notoriously inconsistent and there is not a whole lot of history to judge Kaepernick by. The strong middle game of the San Francisco defense suggests that San Francisco should have the better chance to create pressure and a costly error but this looks to be a pretty good game going in to the kick off, Forty-Niners win 28 – 23.

In the Divisional round the straight up record was again 3 – 1, bring the playoff record to 6-2. Against the spread the record went again 1 – 3 so the record there is 2 – 6 and we will be going out of the playoffs; a net loser here since there are only three games left.

The conference championships might not be terribly good game though obviously you can never tell; last weekend was certainly as an exciting weekend of football as I can recall. There are some matchup issues though that does not bode well for the underdogs this week.

The standard disclaimer goes like this; these picks are for amusement value only. They are not to be confused with the recommended picks of the site.

Conference Championship Round

San Francisco at Atlanta – Atlanta had one of their best running performances of the season in the first half last week which allowed them to take control of the game early. The passing game is the strength of the offense and their receiving corps is arguably the best in the NFL. The offensive line will have problems with being able to consistently block the San Francisco defensive front. Defensively they are solid against the run but their lack of pass rush is a concern.

The San Francisco defense is the core of this team and it is very good across the board. The pass rush is solid and can get pressure in a variety of ways; this will be a focus in this game to disrupt the timing in the passing game. Offensively the balance is good; the line has been solid, effective in both run blocking and pass protection. The weapons in the passing game are somewhat limited; Kaepernick has a good rapport with Crabtree but needs to get others involved.

Atlanta has been mistake prone but has still managed to pull out close games. The passing attack has to click and they simply cannot afford any mistakes this week. San Francisco has the type of defense that can create mistakes, and quarterback pressure starts that. Overall they have better talent particularly on the lines, Forty-niners win 28 – 23.

Baltimore at New England – Baltimore won on the basis of a strong performance by a patchwork offensive line. The pass rush this week is less threatening but they will have their work cut out in getting the running game established. Defensively their base pass rush is not very good and may have problems getting pressure which is going to be important to their chances this week. The match up issue of concern is that they have had issues defending shallow crossing routes which are one of the real strengths of the Patriots.

New England has had some injury issues but the offense keeps plugging on effectively. They have an effective running game but the passing game is always dangerous. The problem for defenses is that with their base personnel they can line up in a wide variety of formations that makes it difficult for defenses to match up. Defensively this team has gotten better as the season has progressed though the pass rush is not very effective.

Baltimore is riding a lot of emotion and Flacco has played very effectively but Rice is the key to the Ravens game plan as they need to control the tempo of the game. They will have trouble if they fall behind by more than a touchdown because their pattern has been to abandon the running game. For New England it is pretty much business as usual; keep the defense off balance and never let up. Brady runs this offense in an optimum fashion, Patriots win 31 – 21.

In the Wildcard round straight up was 3 – 1 and against the spread went a symmetrical but otherwise unsatisfactory 1 – 3. We will try to do better this week.

The divisional rounds are interesting with the AFC repeating late week matchup blowouts and the NFC games looking to be the more competitive matchups. These are mostly games involving the usual suspects, except for Seattle these teams are the ones most expected to still be playing at this point in the season.

The standard disclaimer goes like this; these picks are for amusement value only. They are not to be confused with the recommended picks of the site.

Divisional Round

Baltimore at Denver –Baltimore is on the road in the playoffs and the offensive line has been average at best. They will need to run the ball successfully and control the tempo of the game. Their passing game is effective with vertical passing but they will need to be more consistent than they have been typically. The defense does not have a great base pass rush and relies on the blitz which might be a problem this week.

Blitzing Peyton Manning has been a long term losing proposition over the past decade or so and the Denver offensive line has been good in protection. Manning will read the defense and will use the running game if that is what he is being given. The defense is very good in all respects and has the most effective pass rushes in the NFL. This makes them a very difficult team to keep up with as a shootout is almost always going to end in their favor.

This is a repeat of the week fifteen game played in Baltimore where the home team lost by 17 in a game that was not nearly that close. Baltimore will need to play near perfect ball to avoid a repeat of their earlier meeting; a slow game where they use Rice as a primary weapon would be to their benefit. Denver needs to avoid errors both penalties and turnovers early; if they get an early lead this game could be ugly, Broncos win 24 – 17.

San Francisco at Green Bay – Aaron Rodgers is one of those players who can take over a game and literally carry his team to victory. Green Bay has an offense that could conceivably score every time that they touch the ball; a big play is possible on every snap. Still the running game is almost non-existent and the offensive line play has been poor. While the defense has some key players back from injury it has been inconsistent particularly against the run.

While San Francisco is one the top running teams in the NFL, Gore has gotten fewer carries with Kaepernick at quarterback but they may want to reemphasize his role this week. Any game plan that keeps Rodgers on the sidelines has to be attractive. The defense has been the strength here though even a team as good as this one will have some issues trying to match up with the receivers so getting Justin Smith back helps the pass rush though which is certainly welcome.

This is a repeat of a week one game but there is not a lot that can be transferred from that experience. Green Bay is flawed and while dangerous they do not have any room for error and the offensive line will have difficulty in keeping Rodgers upright. San Francisco needs to play from ahead and control the tempo of the game, Forty-niners win 24 – 20.

Seattle at Atlanta – Seattle is playing their best football at the right time which is a good time for that to start; it is potentially a four game season. They have an excellent defense overall and their secondary matches up well this week in what rates to be their most difficult challenge. The offense is based off of their running game Lynch can break a play at any time and can wear down a defense. Wilson has shown good presence and is difficult to defend because of his mobility.

Atlanta has perhaps the best receiving corps in the NFL; Jones, White, and Gonzales are potent weapons and Ryan is a capable quarterback. The offense lacks a reliable running game, Turner has lost a step and Rogers is a change of pace option which puts a lot of pressure on the passing game. The defense is solid overall and good against the run; the defense however could have issues in containing a highly mobile quarterback.

This should be a very competitive game, Seattle being without Clemmons though will hurt their rotation on the defensive line and this is a young team on the road. Atlanta will need to step up here as this is a tough match up but they are at home and have the big play potential, Falcons win 27 – 21.

Houston at New England – Houston has a solid running game, Foster is a special talent, and the offense works off of that setting up the passing game. While Schaub does not have a big arm he is accurate and adept at the play fakes that are the core of the offense. The defense is very good against the run and decent overall but coverage can become an issue. The pass rush is good and Watts is a special player who will need a big game this week.

New England has an array of weapons in the passing game and it is impossible to cover all of them, given time Brady will pick apart any defense. The return of Gronkowski gives them more than an additional target his abilities add to the effectiveness of everyone else even if he is still somewhat limited. The New England defense is somewhat overlooked but while they give up yardage they are tough to score against.

This is a reprise of the week fourteen game when Houston was destroyed. To change the outcome Houston has to control the tempo and get consistent pressure on Brady, preferably from the center of the defense. New England needs to avoid turnovers and keep the Houston defense off balance which is pretty much their normal plan, Patriots win 35 – 27.

For the last week of the year straight up went 12 – 4 to bring the season record to 178 – 77 – 1 for just a bit under seventy percent. The result against the spread was less good for the week at 7 – 9 bringing the season record there to 130 – 118 – 8 which comes in at a bit over fifty-two percent which satisfies my expectations.

The wildcard weekend looks very competitive and these games are likely to be decided by turnovers; these games could all be close but history suggests that one or more of these teams will get blown out. Still this looks to be a very good weekend for watching football. One thing we do know is that there will be at least one rookie quarterback going on to the next round.

The standard disclaimer goes like this; these picks are for amusement value only. They are not to be confused with the recommended picks of the site.

Wildcard Round

Cincinnati at Houston – Houston has obvious talent but their play over the past few weeks has been underwhelming losing three of their last four convincingly. The offense has stalled and the defense has been victimized during this stretch which is how they managed to squander the number one seed. The offense depends on balance and being able to run the ball to establish the passing game. The offensive line play has fallen off a bit and the signature zone blocking cut back runs have not been materializing. This is not a team that plays well in come from behind mode so they need to start out well.

Cincinnati is a well balanced team and the defense is playing well over the second half of the season holding all their opponents to twenty points or under since week ten. The strength here is the defensive line; the defensive secondary is somewhat thin. The offense uses the big play threat of Green to keep opponents from staking the box and it works to maintain balance but this is also a team that is better playing with a lead.

This rates to be a close game and Houston has a slight talent edge but their play of late does not inspire much confidence. Cincinnati has the potential to control the line of scrimmage they also have better special teams play which may figure in to a game that looks like it may come down to a last minute drive; Bengals win 24 – 21

Minnesota at Green Bay – Minnesota won last week on a last second drive and field goal, but that was at home. They did a good job getting pressure on Rodgers and were helped by crown noise which is not going to be the case this week. The offense has Peterson as its centerpiece and primary weapon and what a weapon he has been but the passing game is not a threat. They need to play a ball control game and stay close if they are to have a chance this week.

Green Bay has a defense that is at its best playing with a lead and making the opponent one-dimensional. The pass rush consists of Clay Matthews and not much else but that has worked well enough. Expect them to load up the box early in an effort to shift the offensive focus onto Ponder. The offense is the passing game and they should have their full complement of weapons back for this game; a semblance of a running game would be nice but the offensive line play has been inconsistent.

Minnesota has been playing very well of late and has earned their way into the playoffs. The defense has improved over the season but the offense is limited and has no real vertical threat at all. Green Bay has playoff experience and rates to start faster and gain control early, Packers win 28 – 21.

Indianapolis at Baltimore – Indianapolis has been the over achiever for the 2012 football season. Luck has been everything that the team could have hoped for plus a bit. They also have had some pleasant surprises in the rookies that are a part of the receiving corps. But flaws here are plentiful, the offensive line is substandard and the defense is overall the worst of the playoff teams.

Baltimore has been fairly mediocre the last half of the season and is one and four in their last five games. The offense has been inconsistent but has a number of weapons, Rice is one the league’s most versatile backs but sometimes the coaches seem to forget he is on the roster. The defense has had some injuries to contend with the return of Lewis will have an emotional impact.

Indianapolis has been playing well but appears to be overmatched though that has been the case in several of their wins this season. Baltimore does not want to let this game be close at the end; they have the ability to control the tempo and also have big play potential, Ravens win 27 – 21.

Seattle at Washington – Washington is riding a seven game winning streak and leading the NFL in rushing they are playing solid football. The strength of the offense runs through the rookies at quarterback and running back who have been thriving in this offense. The defense is missing some pieces but is good against the run which will be important this week.

Seattle is only on a five game winning streak and third in rushing this season; they too are riding the success of a rookie quarterback. They have been explosive and have some big play potential offensively. The defense is balanced and very good; it has to be considered the strength of the team, where they lead the NFL in fewest points allowed.

Washington is playing at home and will need to take advantage of that and try to control the tempo of the game. Seattle has a reputation of not traveling well to the East coast but the late afternoon start time could help there; Seahawks win 24 – 20.

Last week the straight up went 14 – 2 which is the best single week record we have managed this year and brought the season record up to 166 – 73 – 1. The result against the spread was good going 9 – 6 – 1 bringing the season record there to 123 – 109 – 8. We will try to hold onto those records going into the final week of the regular season.

Week seventeen is always a difficult week, some teams and players have started the off season a week early others play more professionally. Coaches of playoff teams will be looking at conserving resources when they can in some cases and maintaining momentum in others. Other coaches are playing for their jobs or their next job in the NFL. These are potentially all interesting games if just to try to get an insight into the teams.

The standard disclaimer goes like this; these picks are for amusement value only. They are not to be confused with the recommended picks of the site. I participate in a pick ‘em league and these represent my picks for that league though I may modify my picks there as injury news updates come in later in the week. My versus the spread results are against the line at the time I made the pick, this week on the Thursday before the games are played

Week 17

Tampa Bay at Atlanta – Tampa Bay has lost five in a row and looked worse every week; the offense has been inconsistent and the defense has given up a lot of yards. Atlanta has secured the first seed and may limit the play of White or Jones but should still hold on, Falcons win 24 – 20.

NY Jets at Buffalo – The Jets are in an apparent death spiral with no evident desire to pull out; the offense has gone from poor to pathetic. Buffalo has an underperforming defense but against this offense that might be enough and the offense is adequate, Bills win 21 – 17.

Baltimore at Cincinnati – Baltimore is almost a lock to play Cincinnati next week at home; they have no reason to expose their playbook or players this week. Cincinnati has much the same issues but at home will be playing with a bit more intensity, Bengals win 24 – 21.

Chicago at Detroit – The Lions have been an undisciplined team; a weak defensive secondary along with penalties and turnovers have resulted in a lost season. The Chicago offense has been mediocre of late and the defense has struggled as a result, they all need to step up, Bears win 24 – 20.

Houston at Indianapolis – Indianapolis is playing at home and has their coach back from cancer treatments; inspiring but their playoff future is set. Houston has been flat of late but a loss is likely to cost them not only home field but a first round bye, Texans win 31 – 27.

Carolina at New Orleans – The Panthers offense is largely Cameron either passing or running; the defense is going to have a difficult time. New Orleans has found some balance offensively; the defense is still bad but can produce an occasional stop, Saints win 31 – 24.

Philadelphia at NY Giants – Philadelphia will be starting Vick this week against a team that has the speed and pass rush to limit him; the defense will need a big game to compete here. New York has been playing poorly but has the talent and a remote playoff chance to play for, Giants win 28 – 20.

Cleveland at Pittsburgh – The Browns have injury issues on offense and are effectively out-manned in any case, the defensive pass rush needs a good game. Pittsburgh is not the defensive force it once was but should be solid this week, the offense is too predictable, Steelers win 24 – 14.

Jacksonville at Tennessee – Jacksonville is struggling with a limited offense and losing their most consistent receiver is not going to help that. Tennessee can make big plays on offense but have given them up even faster on defense but will have fewer threats to defend, Titans win 20 – 17.

Kansas City at Denver – The Chiefs seem to be on the clock for the first choice in the draft assuming they can avoid a win here, no problem. Denver is playing for a first round bye and could have a chance for home field; they will be paying attention which should be all that is required, Broncos win 28 – 17.

Green Bay at Minnesota – Minnesota has been playing surprisingly well and Peterson should run rampant this week but keeping up is going to be a problem. Green Bay is one-dimensional but can score enough to win any shoot out if they are careful with the ball, Packers win 34 – 24.

Miami at New England – The Dolphins have been playing solid defense particularly of late the offense is not well equipped for the type of game likely here. New England has a chance for a bye week if either of the teams ahead of them falters and will play with purpose, Patriots win 28 – 20.

Oakland at San Diego – Oakland will be without Palmer and their vertical passing game this week, the defense is limited and gives up too many big plays. San Diego has not had many plays this season and their mistake prone ways have led to a disappointing season, Chargers win 28 – 13.

Arizona at San Francisco – The Cardinals defense has been their offense the past several weeks a trend not likely to change this week. San Francisco has a chance at a first round bye with a win but a loss would likely make them a wild card team so they will be playing all out, Forty-niners win 28 – 10.

St Louis at Seattle – St Louis is a team coming together in a number of ways; the defense has a solid foundation, offense could use a consistent deep threat. Seattle can possibly take the division so they are motivated to win here and to keep their momentum going, Seattle wins 28 – 14.

Dallas at Washington – The Cowboys have been a difficult team to predict and while they seem to be playing reasonably well they are not dependable in big games. Washington has been playing well and the defense in particular has exceeded expectations, they will need to, Redskins win 24 – 20.

Last week there were a surprising set of blowouts but from our standpoint things went fairly well for the week as straight up went 12 – 4 straight up to bring the season record to 152 – 71 – 1. The result though against the spread was however exceptional as it was also 12 – 4 bringing the season record to an almost reasonable 114 – 103 – 7. That particular feat is unlikely to be repeated but we will try.

The game of the week for me is the Giants at the Ravens. Both are coming off poor offensive showings and are struggling for playoff position. New York is in desperate straits and historically have risen to the occasion. Baltimore needs to make their offense more dynamic and are likely without their best vertical weapon. (See my pick below.)

The standard disclaimer goes like this; these picks are for amusement value only. They are not to be confused with the recommended picks of the site. I participate in a pick ‘em league and these represent my picks for that league though I may modify my picks there as injury news updates come in later in the week. My versus the spread results are against the line at the time I made the pick, usually the Tuesday before the games are played.

Week 16

Atlanta at Detroit – Detroit has been mistake prone and undisciplined the defensive secondary is not good a bad combination this week, or any other really. Atlanta has not been an overpowering team but they are steady and good in all phases of the game, Falcons win 31 – 23.

Oakland at Carolina – The Raiders are not known for traveling well; the run defense stepped up last week but will be seeing a different challenge this week. Carolina has improved of late and is more effective on both sides of the ball; the offense has some explosiveness, Panthers win 28 – 17.

New Orleans at Dallas – Dallas has the running game is critical as Dallas needs to play from ahead and control the tempo of the game, they do not play well from behind. New Orleans defense made an appearance last week, but the offense is what matters and ball integrity, Saints win 31 – 28.

Tennessee at Green Bay – The Titans have a poor offensive line and an underwhelming defensive secondary; their passing game is not impressive. Green Bay has won the division but still is in the running for a first round bye, the passing game should have its way, Packers win 28 – 14.

Minnesota at Houston – Minnesota has Peterson on a record pace but he is about their only offensive option, the defense will have their hands full. Houston has ample weapons and a win will secure the AFC one seed for the playoffs, Texans win 31 – 20.

New England at Jacksonville – The Jaguars continue their march into oblivion with a trip to play a much better and angrier team, Custer had better odds. New England is not known for taking it easy on out-classed opponents especially after a loss, Patriots win 38 – 10.

Indianapolis at Kansas City – Kansas City is holding onto the first pick in the 2013 draft, their turnovers have been a primary issue along with quarterback play. Indianapolis could lock up a wildcard berth the offense is good and the defense good enough for this week, Colts win 23 – 17.

Buffalo at Miami – The Bills have been a disappointment this season as the defense which looked so good on paper never translated to the field. Miami has a solid defense, the offense is somewhat uneven and they lack weapons in the passing game to stretch the field, Dolphins win 27 – 20.

San Diego at NY Jets – New York is starting McElroy at quarterback, he is unlikely to do worse, and the defense is struggling and has no consistent pass rush. San Diego is in disarray; the offense makes too many mistakes but they are facing a team that is in worse shape, Chargers win 24 – 21.

Washington at Philadelphia – The Eagles as a team are pretty much done at this point in the season, a team that will be dismantled. Washington is playing well with either quarterback; running to setup the passing game, the defense has solidified after some key injuries, Redskins win 28 – 24.

Cincinnati at Pittsburgh – Pittsburgh has had a number of injury issues the current one being the state of their defensive secondary and the lack of a pass rush. Cincinnati has a balanced offense and big play ability, the defensive secondary will be under pressure, Bengals win 24 – 21.

St Louis at Tampa Bay – The Buccaneers played poorly last week and faces a much better defense though at home they should play better. St Louis has some defensive playmakers but will need to keep Jackson in check as they do not play from behind well, Rams win 21 – 20.

Chicago at Arizona – Arizona does not have an offense in any real sense of the word; their defense has most of the offensive potential on their side of the ball. The Chicago offense has been one-dimensional relying almost solely on Marshall, the defense is still very good though Bears win 17 – 10.

NY Giants at Baltimore – The Ravens o need a new playbook but that is tough to put in this late in the season, Flacco has problems with the rush. New York was bad last week but seldom put up poor games in succession, their balance should prevail, Giants win 24 – 21.

Cleveland at Denver – Cleveland has limited offensive weapons and are not able to keep up with a high powered offense, the defense is good but not dominating. Denver is playing for the second seed and a first round bye and Manning is working on improving the offense, Broncos win 31 - 20

San Francisco at Seattle – The Forty-niners are on a short week and playing in one of the toughest venues in the NFL, the defense is up to it the offense not so much. Seattle has been on a roll, the offense has been impressive but this is a tough challenge, Seahawks win 24 – 21.

Last week there were a number of surprises but we survived with an average sort of result coming in at 10 – 6 straight up to bring the season record to 140 – 67 – 1. The result though against the spread was more in line with the week in football at 6 – 8 – 2 but we are still over average against the spread for the season at this point though barely so at 102 – 99 – 7.

San Francisco at New England is my game of the week. Yes it is an obvious game, good teams with good records but the question is how Belichick will attack the Forty-niner offense. The question from the other side is how good the Patriot defense is, it is clearly improved, but how much. (My best guess is indicated in my pick below.)

The standard disclaimer goes like this; these picks are for amusement value only. They are not to be confused with the recommended picks of the site. I participate in a pick ‘em league and these represent my picks for that league though I may modify my picks there as injury news updates come in later in the week. My versus the spread results are against the line at the time I made the pick, usually the Tuesday before the games are played.

Week 15

Cincinnati at Philadelphia – Philadelphia managed a road win but the essential problems still exist and there is little cause for optimism. Cincinnati has a balanced offense with big play potential with Green; the defense is capable, Bengals win 24 – 17.

NY Giants at Atlanta – The Giants are effective offensively, even behind somewhat battered line; the defensive line is good and masks an average secondary. Atlanta has a generally good offense with great vertical weapons, at home those should come into play, Falcons win 28 – 24.

Green Bay at Chicago – Chicago is not the same defense without Urlacher; the offense is too focused on Marshall and needs to be more diverse. Green Bay has the weapons that make the passing game an offense; the defense is not much but probably enough, Packers win 24 – 20.

Washington at Cleveland – The Browns have a running attack with Richardson that sets up their rather limited passing game, the defense is sound. Washington has some offensive weapons even if Griffin is out; the defense is solid against the run, Redskins win 21 – 17.

Minnesota at St Louis – Minnesota has little going in terms of a passing attack and are one-dimensional offensively; the defense is inconsistent. The St Louis defense is solid and getting better, the offense lacks big play weapons but will get the job done in time, Rams win 24 – 17.

Jacksonville at Miami – The Jaguars are simply mediocre in all aspects of the game; they have limited talent and weapons. Miami has a sound defense against the run, the secondary is inconsistent; the offense lacks a big play threat in the passing game, Dolphins win 27 – 17.

Denver at Baltimore – Baltimore generally plays well at home but the offense has not been productive, and the defense has aged and is giving up yardage. Denver is playing about as well as any team and has had a few extra days to prepare, and it is Manning after all, Broncos win 28 – 24.

Indianapolis at Houston - The Colts are a good story but not a particularly good team; the defense is poor particularly the secondary. Houston is a very solid team; the offense is balanced and also has big play potential the defense is solid, Texans win 31 – 21.

Tampa Bay at New Orleans – Tampa Bay has some offensive weapons and the defense is capable but they are not well placed to keep up in a shoot-out. New Orleans defense is still not good; the offense can win games but cannot afford turnovers, Saints win 28 – 21.

Detroit at Arizona – The Cardinals offense is appearing on the side s of milk cartons, disappeared without a trace, the defense has talent but no will left. Detroit is an undisciplined team the defense has a bad secondary but this week that should not matter much, Lions win 31 – 7.

Carolina at San Diego – Carolina is playing better offensively in recent weeks as their running game has picked up, the defense is inconsistent. San Diego played a complete game last week and might do so again, there is talent when they are not making mistakes, Chargers win 30 – 24.

Seattle at Buffalo – The Bills have to travel north without Fred Jackson to play an away home game in Toronto. Seattle is coming off an impressive win and while the defense is dominating the offensive improvement may be the biggest thing here, Seahawks win 28 – 17.

Pittsburgh at Dallas – Pittsburgh has a poor pass rush and the running game is inconsistent but the passing game can be explosive. Dallas has no home field advantage but the running game is helped by the return of Murray, the passing game has weapons even if Bryant is out, Cowboys win 27 – 21.

Kansas City at Oakland – The Chiefs lose Bowe for the rest of the season, further weakening a limited passing game; the defense gives up too many big plays. Oakland has a decent passing offense but is mistake prone; the defense is uniformly bad but probably good enough this week, Raiders win 21 – 17.

San Francisco at New England – San Francisco has a quality defense and a slightly more dynamic offense with Kaeppernick at quarterback but he has limited experience. New England is playing well and the defense is improving at the right time of the season, Patriots win 27 – 20.

NY Jets at Tennessee – The Jets have one of the more inconsistent offenses in football; the defense is painfully average at this point. Tennessee has some skill position weapons but the offensive line play has been an issue and the defense is mediocre, Titans win 21 – 17.

Last week was back to normal or a bit worse 9 – 7 straight up to bring the season record to 130 – 61 – 1. The result though against the spread was a dismal 6 – 9 – 1 but still over average against the spread a for the season taking that record to 96 – 91 – 5.

The standard disclaimer goes like this; these picks are for amusement value only. They are not to be confused with the recommended picks of the site. I participate in a pick ‘em league and these represent my picks for that league though I may modify my picks there as injury news updates come in later in the week. My versus the spread results are against the line at the time I made the pick, usually the Tuesday before the games are played.

Week 14

Denver at Oakland – Oakland has not been playing well, the team still appears to lack discipline; penalties and mental errors are too frequent. Denver is playing very well, they could have a letdown after clinching the division but probably not with a chance at the two seed, Broncos win 27 – 20.

St Louis at Buffalo – The Bills have been a disappointment after adding a number of weapons on defense and having an established running game. St Louis is an improving team, the defense has been solid and the offense has weapons though they may be a bit flat after last week, Rams win 21 – 20.

Atlanta at Carolina – Carolina has been inconsistent on both sides of the ball this year; mistakes in the red zone have been costly. While Atlanta has the best record in the AFC and has won the division they are not a dominate team but good in all phases of the game, Falcons win 28 – 21.

Dallas at Cincinnati – The Cowboys have been an up and down team, mistake prone and generally underachieving, the offensive line has been an issue. Cincinnati has an effective passing offense, a good defensive line the secondary will have a challenge this week, Bengals win 27 – 21.

Kansas City at Cleveland – Kansas City has been through some difficult times this season, there is some overall talent but a lot depends on quarterback play. Cleveland has a solid defense and good running game; about this time of year weather can come into play, Browns win 20 – 17.

Tennessee at Indianapolis – The Titans defense has been overall bad in all aspects; the offense has been inconsistent, though injuries have contributed to that. Indianapolis is a team that has over-achieved; the defense is poor but they manage to generate offense,” Lucky” it seems, Colts win 28 – 21.

NY Jets at Jacksonville – New York has been a side show for much of the season; the defense has been up and down and the offense mostly invisible. Jacksonville has been looking better the past few weeks but that is a relative term as bad as they have been, Jaguars win 14 – 13.

Chicago at Minnesota – The Vikings are largely one-dimensional offensively; the running game is the key and it works well, the defense is uneven. Chicago can be inconsistent offensively as Cutler is streaky, the defense is bend but don’t break but can get worn down, Bears win 24 – 20.

San Diego at Pittsburgh – San Diego has been ineffective offensively, the running game has been poor and the passing game has lacked big play potential. Pittsburgh has had a number of injuries but a couple of key returns are possible, Steelers win 24 – 20.

Philadelphia at Tampa Bay – The Eagles have been playing bad football, the offensive line has been an issue and the defense has given up big plays. Tampa Bay has been very good defending the run and in the running game, the passing game is another issue but not this week, Buccaneers win 28 – 20.

Baltimore at Washington – Washington is playing well at home and has good weapons offensively; the defensive secondary is suspect. Baltimore has been playing inconsistently on the road, the offense does not always seem to use Rice effectively in the running game, Ravens win 21 – 20.

Miami at San Francisco – The Dolphins have been playing solid run defense and will need to do so this week, the offense is not very productive. San Francisco has a bland offense, relying on their running game but changing quarterbacks has altered that dynamic, Forty-niners win 28 – 17.

New Orleans at NY Giants – New Orleans offense is as explosive as ever but the defense has been worse than ever, any turnover puts them behind. The Giants are a decent offense but offensive line injuries are a concern; the pass rush is still good, Giants win 27 – 24.

Arizona at Seattle – The Cardinals offense is abysmal, the offensive line is terrible and the quarterback play has been a very bad joke. Seattle is playing solid football defensively; average would be good enough this week, the offense is improving, Seahawks win 21 – 7.

Detroit at Green Bay – Detroit has a very bad pass defense outside of their pass rush; they have no substantial running game. Green Bay could has been pretty much a one-trick pony; the passing game is their offense and the defense is outscoring the opponent, Packers win 31 – 27.

Houston at New England – The Texans have a number of offensive options, the defense is good but this is a difficult venue. New England has the best passing offense in the NFL which covers a number of team weaknesses, but they can score quickly or slowly, Patriots win 31 – 27.