NCAA
NORTHERN ILLINOIS (+)(ML) - Both teams have advanteges they can exploit and scoring could be liberal. This one should be decided by who has the ball last, and we won’t be a bit surprised if the Huskies win outright.
Also Likes: Houston, Alabama
NFL
SAN FRANCISCO - Niners are the better team and we don’t see them letting down in this spot, after all, this is their “playoffs”.
Also Likes: Oakland (+), Denver
New England - Jacksonville secondary is porous and Pats have the aerial attack to take advantage. On the other side Jacksonville doesn’t have the ball control ground game to control the time of posession battle needed to keep the Pat attack in check. Patriots by double digits.
Oakland (+)(ML): This one should be relatively high scoring, and be decided by single digits either way - making for a nice Money Line value play. Both teams have schemes they can expoit offensively.
Also Likes: Philadelphia
SEATTLE - Despite the loss of Burleson for the ‘Hawks this is a tough match-up for the Buc’s secondary. Seattle should be able to move the ball over the top. On the other side Tampa has a rookie QB in a tough road venue. Seattle by 17.
ARIZONA - Big number, but Cardinals have excellent fundamental match-up’s to exploit here. Lions missing key players on both sides. We’ll call the Cards by 17.
ALSO LIKES: Cincinatti (+), San Francisco (+)
GREEN BAY A Play - Packers have nice situational match-up advantages here: Rodgers has been red-hot running this pass oriented offense, while Chicago has been vulnerable in the secondary; GB has been vulnerable in pass protection, however Chicago one of the worst teams in the league at putting pressure on the opposing QB. On the other side of the ball Packers have a pretty solid secondary, which does not bode well for Chicago’s league leading interception machine. Pack by 10.
SAN DIEGO (ML)(+): Chargers playing with confidence at a high level down the stretch… vibes from Dallas indicate coach Phillips is feeling the pressure. This shapes up to be a damn good game, both teams have advantages they can exploit, but we won’t be surprised at all if San Diego pulls off the road upset.
COLLEGE FOOTBALL PICKS:
RUTGERS A+ Play - Ought to be a pretty good game, but when it’s all said and done we have Rutgers winning at home by a 6 to 10 point margin. Good line value play laying small number on home team. Emotion will be high on both sides, but Rutgers simply better on both sides of the ball.
CALIFORNIA - Bears were a disappointment this year, but they seem to have put it together down the stretch. They have the talent, and catch Huskies off emotional game vs WSU. We’re laying the points.
NFL PICKS:
NEW ENGLAND DOWNGRADED to NO PLAY - Pats are vulnerable in the secondary, but this is a rookie QB, and no Ronnie Brown in the wildcat helps. Miami vulnerable in the secondary, and Brady will exploit that. (UPDATE 12/6/09 - This contest has been taken off the board at many betting venues due to “funny” money coming in on Miami. In addition, Brady may not play due to injury - the safe bet is to pass if you haven’t already hit it.)
CINCINNATI (UPDATE): Detroit doesn’t have the pass rush to pressure Carson Palmer, and they don’t have an answer for OchoCinco. Bengals defense is especially staunch vs the run. Bengals by 17.
TENNESSEE (+): The secondary is healthy, and that has made a world of difference, suddenly the D is respectable again. Titans won’t blitz, and know how to minimize Peyton’s strengths. This should be a TD game.
College Football Picks
OKLAHOMA STATE (ML)(+): Cowyboys are the better team, and they’re getting points. Sweet money line play, this ought to be a great contest to watch, decided by who has the ball last.
WASHINGTON STATE (+): WSU is bad, but this is a rivalry game, and while the Huskies are rising - they’re NOT 3 touchdowns better.
BOSTON COLLEGE: This is as much a play on the disciplined Eagles as it’s a play against the struggling Terrapins.
ALSO LIKES: Texas Tech, BYU, South Florida (+)
NFL PICKS:
HOUSTON (+): Texans have some things they can do over the top, and this will be their “playoff” game.
ATLANTA A+ rated pick: Tampa on the road with a rookie QB against a division rival fighting to make the playoffs. Falcons vulnerable in secondary against good pass attacks, but that will not be an issue vs the Bucs. This should be a two TD win for the Black Birds.
ALSO LIKES: Minnesota, Carolina (ML)
College Football Picks:
Arizona (+): Sun Devils have the offense that can go tit-for-tat with the Ducks. They’ll use the same blue print Stanford did, this is a touchdown game, and we won’t be surprised if they outright win.
Michigan (+): This is the Wolverines BCS bowl game. They have some match-ups they can exploit, and should be able to put up points. Our forecast is this will be decided by a FG either way.
Tennessee: Don’t see where Vandy’s points are going to come from against this defense. We have Vandy putting up 7-13 points, and the Volunteers posting between 24 to 35.
Also Likes: Utep (+), Texas Tech (+), Army, Nebraska, Rutgers
NFL Picks:
New England - A+ Pick: Patriots are healthier than they were in the first meeting, and starting to gel offensively. This time it’s the Jets who are banged up, and on the road. Look for the Pats to lay the wood down. Jets defense no match for this offense in this situation. Patriots win by 13, and this has the potential to get very ugly.
Cleveland (+): This will be a FG game either way. Much maligned Browns know this is one they can win, and should give their best effort. On the other side Detroit should be able to successfully attack this secondary. Look for a tightly contested game, and take the value with the points.
Also Likes: San Francisco (+)
COLLEGE FOOTBALL PICKS:
BOSTON COLLEGE is our highest rated A+ rated pick this week - Eagles potent ground game should dominate a fading Cavaliers run defense. Virginia offense can’t sustain continuity on offense which would give the defense a rest. This may not be a big blow-out, but BC should control both sides of the trenches and should win by about 17 points.
UTAH (+) - Way too many points. Our forecast is this will be a 7 point game, 10 at the most to TCU. Utah is quick on defense, they’ll come in looking to win, and give TCU a tightly fought contest.
LA. MONROE - The hilltoppers defense has given up way to many points on the road and the Warhawks still have a chance at the sunbelt title. This one could be a blow-out, but it is a steep number, Warhawks by 32.
STANFORD (+)(ML) - Last weeks win over Oregon was no fluke. They match up very well to USC, are getting generous points, and we won’t be surprised if they pull off the road upset.
Also Likes: Houston, New Mexico (+), Nebraska, Troy (+)
NFL PICKS:
NEW ORLEANS - Rams defense is porous, especially susceptible secondary. Saints offense can be explosive, particularly strong offensive line - which can both run block and pass block very well - usually a good O-line excels at one or the other, but this one does both equally well. N.O. defense is proud, and won’t just give away a backdoor cover. Saints by 17.
NEW ENGLAND (ML) - This shapes as one of those games that will be won by who has the ball last, and in the NFL that’s a solid ML value when you can get it at +120 (+3 with the points). Forget the fundamental matchups here - that’s a wash - both teams have advantages over the top they can exploit. It comes down to who executes at crunch time.
ALSO LIKES: Miami, New Orleans, and Bengals (+)
Big Al says the best value this week appears to be with some favorites who should lay some wood this weekend.
COLLEGE FOOTBALL PICKS:
PITTSBURGH - Orangemen heavily overmatched here, and don’t belong on the same field, only question is by how much Pitt wants to win by? They might have the cover by halftime.
NORTHWESTERN (+): Stats say this will be closer than the line predicts, and should be decided by single digits either way. Couple that with the motivation factor and it’s a play on the Wildcats.
GEORGIA TECH - Wake is struggling this year, Tech appears to be playing crisper ball down the stretch and controls their own BCS destiny - they should easily win this by a 3 TD margin.
SMU A rated play - Mustangs have potent offense, Rice doesn’t have the tools on offense to play catch-up once it gets out of hand, and there is little concern of a backdoor cover. Our call is SMU by 28.
Also Likes: Oklahoma State, Houston, From Thursday: Northern Illinois, Temple, East Carolina
NFL:
DETROIT (+): Hard to imagine, but the computer says this is the best value number on the board. If you decide to play it wait till the last minute, as this one might get to +10.5 before kick-off.
GREEN BAY - Tampa secondary is hurting, and Bucs don’t have the pass rush to pressure Rodgers. Line is currently at -9.5, so get it while you can, as we expect it will climb prior to kick-off.
Also Likes: New England, Pittsburgh
I just got off the horn with our College football handicapper, Big Al - often Allen has an opinion on one of the early weak games, but today he sees 3 picks with betting value. I’m posting all three as college “also like” rated picks. I’m at work, and was able to sneak away, login and update the blog, but can’t update the home page on the site yet. Personally, I just hit these straight up, as 3.5% of bankroll plays - hoping to go 2 for 3 (I don’t like 3-team parlays at all, as we explained in our money management tips parlays our a losing proposition). We’ll update again about 9:00pm EST Friday night.
COLLEGE FOOTBALL PICKS: TBA
ALSO LIKE RATED PICKS - Thursday: TEMPLE, Owls should win by 4 TDs. NORTHERN ILLINOIS in a nice sitution here, should win by 20. EAST CAROLINA (+) is a solid team, they’re on national television, and they should stay within double digits.
Peace, Football Forecasters