Football Forecasters

Well we are back, or at least headed that direction. It has been a very busy offseason and there is a lot to look at before the season gets started. The annual Brett Favre watch is in full panic. Although my personal opinion is that Brett should stay down for the count it is clear my opinion is (as it should be) irrelevant.

It looks like his ankle may be trying to tell him something he should be figuring out with his brain and an abacus; he is old. The opponents are relatively younger and faster every season and his body does not recover as it once did. Still, if he can, expect him to come back, even if it is after the season starts. What his level of play will be like and how long he will last are open questions. Remember that anything that affects how a quarterback sets up can severely hurt the throwing motion, so getting this ankle completely healthy is important.

The approach that the Chargers have taken with Jackson and McNeill does not look like it is working well at least if the team goal is a Super Bowl. Playing hardball may be a good move for the bottom line but it tends to create hard feelings for those on the opposite side. It also has some affect on the players not involved and their attitudes toward the management and the team. While everyone understands that the NFL is a business, football is a team game and anything that even marginally creates distractions can show up in the win loss column.

Less clear is what is going on between the Jets and Revis. Understandably, he wants to be paid as the NFL’s best cornerback because that is what he is and the Jets are willing to negotiate. (Right now Asomugha is the highest paid cornerback in the NFL.) The question will likely be settled before the season the sticking point seems to be guaranteed money and overall terms that will make him the highest paid at his position. As the contract is not guaranteed money this latter point, the ego massage of being the “highest paid” should be easily resolved, real money will be the sticking point.

We will be doing our usual office pool picks starting week one, they will be up on Wednesday night except when there is a Thursday game when the picks will go up on Tuesday night with picks going throughout the post season. Occasional opinion pieces will be put up as time permits and the mood strikes.

This is not an easy draft to call. There are not a lot of skill position players in the draft who seem to stand out. There is good depth along the lines though but evaluating that type of talent gets fuzzy quickly. For the most part the draft choices here are based largely on team needs after free agency moves.

Every year some position gets a run on and players seem to get grabbed up before their time. This season my guess is that offensive tackles are going to be the precious commodity. This would make Dallas a good possibility to be looking to move up. Remember this is for amusement only, your mileage may vary.

St Louis Rams, Sam Bradford, QB – The Rams have backed themselves into this pick unless they can find a trade partner. They have other more compelling needs that would have a greater immediate impact but the quarterback situation has to be addressed. This is a high risk pick.

Detroit Lions, Ndamukoung Suh, DT – Probably the best player in this draft he will have an immediate impact and if he can stay healthy he has great long-term value. He has the kind of explosive quickness that is very disruptive. Detroit might take Russell Okung in an attempt to extend Stafford’s career.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Gerald McCoy, DT – They need a lot of help on defense this is a position of need for the team at this point. They would be thrilled if Suh fell to them but the defense seems to be the likely direction in this slot.

Washington Redskins – Russell Okung, OT – A real need pick as the offensive line was not good and Samuel’s retirement makes this a critical requirement if expect to keep McNabb on the field through the season. There has been talk of Washington going for Clauson here but that seems very unlikely.

Kansas City Chiefs, Eric Berry, S – The defense needs help in several places but safety is perhaps the most immediate need. A playmaker he has good coverage skills and is very athletic, can play corner back as well, and might end up playing that position in the NFL. The offensive line is a lively possibility here as well; Trent Williams would be the likely choice if they go that direction.

Seattle Seahawks– Trent Williams, OT – The offensive line was a problem last season and the new coaching staff is going to need to establish a foundation for their offense. The defense needs secondary help and if Williams is not available Berry would be a viable option or possibly cornerback Joe Haden.

Cleveland Browns, Jimmy Clausen, QB – Another team that has traded away its quarterbacks in an obvious move to restructure the franchise. There are other needs here as well but they nee d a quarterback to build around and he may be the most field ready of any of the quarterbacks in this draft.

Oakland Raiders, Jason Pierre-Paul, DE – No one can tell what Al Davis might do with any certainty but Pieere-Paul fills a defensive need for a speed pass rusher he is raw and very athletic. The team could also look at improving the offensive line by adding Bruce Campbell, OT.

Buffalo Bills, Anthony Davis, OT – The offensive line was bad last year, injuries played a part but so did talent. Davis is a big power blocker with good quickness and power, is raw but can almost certainly contribute immediately. If Clausen were to be available here Buffalo might grab him but the offensive line is actually a much bigger need.

Jacksonville Jaguars, Earl Thomas, S – The pass rush improved through free agency the draft is the time to improve the secondary. Thomas is very good in coverage, has good speed for a safety, and plays the run well. Derrick Morgan, DE is an option here as well.

Denver Broncos, Rolando McClain, LB – The team addressed some needs on the defensive line but need to replace Andra Davis and McLain is the beat option in this draft at inside linebacker.

Miami Dolphins, Derrick Morgan, DE – Pass rush is going to be a need here since Porter and Taylor have left the team. Morgan is the most complete defensive end in this draft. Good quickness and burst he is athletic and has good strength as well. If he were not available, Brandon Graham would not be much of a drop off.

San Francisco Forty-niners, Bruce Campbell, OT – A very gifted athlete with good quickness and decent footwork he needs to improve technically and will need to be developed but has tremendous upside. A close option here would be Bryan Bulaga, OT who is perhaps more polished.

Seattle Seahawks, Joe Haden, CB – A need choice that they might have made early the Seahawks would be thrilled to find him still available. Haden has good awareness and foot speed; technique needs work but is athletic and should be at least a solid corner and possibly much better.

New York Giants, Brandon Spikes, LB – A solid player he will need to be to replace Antonio Pierce in this defense. The change in defensive coordinator position could change the type of player they are looking for to a player with better coverage skills and might look to trade out of this spot.

Tennessee Titans, Dez Bryant, WR – A great talent who could (and probably should) go much earlier he is the best receiver in the draft in terms of talent and seems to have all of the ego issues. Tennessee would like to have pass rusher here but would not be able to pass on Bryant, Pierre-Paul if still on the board would be an alternative pick.

San Francisco Forty-niners, Kyle Wilson, CB – The secondary has need of some help, Wilson is consistent performer capable of starting immediately.

Pittsburgh, Steelers, Mike Iupati, G – The offensive line needs some immediate help, Iupati is a power blocker who fits their scheme perfectly.

Atlanta Falcons, Maurkice Pouncey C – He can play either guard or center and has the tools to start form day one.

Houston Texans, Patrick Robinson, CB – Pass defense is the primary need here and he is athletic, with a good burst but is inconsistent at times.

Cincinnati Bengals, Jermaine Gresham, TE – The best tight end in the draft a good route runner he can also block effectively.

New England Patriots, Sergio Kindle, LB – A position of need Kindle is capable of being on the field and contributing immediately.

Green Bay Packers, Bryan Bulaga, OT – The Green Bay offensive line was inconsistent and needs depth. Bulaga is highly regarded but has limited upside he is technically very polished. He is capable of contributing immediately.

Philadelphia Eagles, Taylor Mays, S – The need here is to improve the secondary and Mays is the best option for that at this point in the draft. Drafting a corner back would be a good option here as well if Robinson were still on the board for example.

Baltimore Ravens, Demaryius Thomas, WR – A great athlete and potential number one receiver, he can run routes well though he has been inconsistent catching at times but Derrick Mason is not getting any younger.

Arizona Cardinals, D’Anthony Smith, DT – The defense has suffered some loses in free agency. Smith is a good value choice here though Arizona is also in need of an inside linebacker.

Dallas Cowboys, Charles Brown, OT – This is the sixth offensive tackle and a bit of a reach at this point. Brown has all the physical tools to play in the NFL though it is not clear he will be a left tackle. (Dallas looks like a candidate to trade up.)

San Diego Chargers, C.J. Spiller RB – This is he number one running back and the team in most dire need of one, a perfect match. Spillers is capable of being explosive but durability questions will allow him to drop to this point.

New York Jets, Jared Odrick, DE – Has great initial quickness and should be able to break into the defensive rotation almost immediately as a situational rusher. Needs work on technique but should thrive in this defensive scheme.

Minnesota Vikings, Kareem Jackson, CB – Needs some coaching a development, could have benefited from another college season but he has the basic skills and athleticism to be a good cornerback.

Indianapolis Colts, Jon Asamoah G – Having cut Lilja in the offseason the offensive line has been identified as a primary concern. With the departure of Howard Mudd there may be some changes in philosophy but Asamoah looks like a fit for whatever direction they might head.

New Orleans Saints, Sean Weatherspoon, LB – He looks like a good replacement for Fujita on the strong side. Has good speed and athleticism and can cover but needs to improve his recognition.

Well another football season is done and now we wait. Through the playoffs I went 8 – 3 0n straight up picks and 7 – 4 against the spread. For the season I was 176 - 80 straight up and 139 - 113 – 4 adding in the post season that makes the percentages .689 straight up and a very respectable .555 against the spread. It sets a difficult standard to meet for next season.

A couple Super Bowl comments seem appropriate. The Saints out coached the Colts; the key play being the onside kick to start the second half. That play rates to work about seventy percent of the time. (Of course, if it had not worked, the play would be being dissected as being questionable. It is amazing how an idea is good or bad depending upon the outcome.) Other good coaching decisions included going for the touchdown at the end of the quarter. It ran time off the clock and got the conservative response that was likely from the Colts. All of this blends with a game plan that was very patient, running underneath patterns against the cover-two and playing patiently. Compare these choices with the conservative play calling by the Colts at the end of the first half and the very questionable fifty plus yard field goal attempt.

One comment on the Porter interception.  This was a great play by Porter.  Contrary to other comments though Manning’s pass, while not perfect, was not the problem.  With the jump Porter had on the ball he would have intercepted a perfect ball because he broke on the route better than Wayne did.  Which gets me to this observation, perhaps Wayne telegraphed the stop because of his bad knee.  He may have shortened his stride giving Porter the play as it appears that Porter actually broke toward the ball before Wayne did.  Could be that Porter just jumped the route but the pivot by Wayne looked a bit sloppy.

The labor situation looks ominous. The uncapped season hurts players and owners alike to some extent. The free agent market may be lucrative but the talent pool is going to be somewhat thin. It seems that the owners and the union are engaging in a game of chicken with billions of dollars at stake. It is hard to believe that there will be a lock out this season but it might be possible.

We will be back before the draft with our predictions and then with our preseason predictions during training camps. In the mean time, we will be studying the front office moves and looking for the edge for next season.

The Super Bowl write up will be out this weekend, just wanted to take a brief moment to brag and put out a couple of random thoughts. The brag is about getting all the games right two weeks in a row; the conference round picks went 2 – 2 both straight up and against the spread which makes me 8 – 2 straight up and 7 – 3 against the spread for the playoff rounds. (All right, getting two games right is not all that big though I did get the exact score of the NFC game.)

My first observation comes out of the NFC game. Brett it is time to quit. The beating you are taking is showing; your ego is writing checks that your body can no longer cash. It is part of getting older. You can play about three quarters of a season but that is going to be decreasing precipitously. Look if you need to figure this out get someone who recorded the game to send you the cut aways to your wife and daughter.in the crowd during the fourth quarter.

Out of the AFC game it appears that the AFC East is no longer a one-team division. The Jets’ offensive line is outstanding, Sanchez does not have to be a great quarterback, slightly above average will be plenty good enough. This takes considerable pressure off his development; he can grow into the job because he does not have to carry the team. The Patriots are in for some stiff competition starting sooner rather than later.

Favre is back, but then again it is as if he never really left. Oops, he never did, did he? He apparently enjoys the game as much as he ever has. However, is he really the best choice for the Vikings? Given that the choice between of Rosenthels and Jackson is tainted; what are the realistic chances that a forty-year old quarterback is going to make it through the season?

The move is likely to put people in the seats for Viking games in the short term. Unless he can stay on the field for the season though this could end up being a career-shortening event for Childress. The reality is injury or no with the exception of 2007 Favre has been in a steady decline and even in 2007 he was losing effectiveness as the season ended.

The fact is that despite the labrum surgery he apparently still has a slight tear in his rotator cuff according to his agent. This is not going to get better. He will abuse his arm more compensating for fatigue as his legs wear down. Avoiding the preseason is not going to be enough to stop this from happening as the season progresses.

Speaking of comebacks, and not to miss that chance to state the obvious, Michael Vick could have found a more difficult franchise to re-enter football but not without considerable effort. The only chance that he has to avoid the wrath of the Eagles fans will be if the team wins the Super Bowl and that will only work for this season. It will be interesting to see how he is worked into the offense.

Preseason has started, a time when everything is still possible. There is the anticipation of the season to come and in it the hope of the fan. There is a certain amount of frustration though; the starters appear briefly, if at all. The games mean nothing as a predictor of the season.

The starters are not going to be, by themselves, the only factor in how a team will do overall. Teams know the starters for the most part and have a clear idea of what most of the rest depth chart is going to look like as well; despite the various statements that will be made over the next few weeks. The same is not true of the final five to fifteen positions on a team though.

These players at the end of the roster will make their living by their versatility. While occasionally, they will step up and have a role as a starter, or spot starter, for the most part they will be making their living on special teams and as back ups, or depth players. These players and the quality of depth in these positions will make a difference in two to four games a year for each team. (Between special team play and depth.)

The preseason is therefore a time to pay attention, unfortunately the games you can see are perhaps the least important factor. What counts most are the practices; if you can attend a training camp for a day, you should. Players make the team in practice not in the preseason games. Still the preseason games let some players audition their talents for other teams in the league and there is always the promise of things to come.

Then there were two. Last week I was wrong on both games both straight up and against the spread making the playoffs a rather poor 4 – 6 straight up and 5 – 5 against the spread. The Super Bowl is obviously not what I would have predicted but it is what we have.

Please note that these picks are not to be confused with the real business of Football Forecasters and are not the recommended picks. Personally I do not bet football and anyone who has followed this little feature for any length of time will understand why. I participate in a pick’em league and these choices reflect those picks though my league choices are subject to last minute changes based on the latest injury and practice reports. Generally, these picks will appear on Wednesday evenings and for their limited amusement value.

The Super Bowl

Arizona – The offensive prowess of this team is not really a question but they are better than they demonstrated during the season. The offensive line has stepped up their level of play, they have protected well in the passing game and their run blocking is considerably better though not outstanding. Larry Fitzgerald has been playing at an entirely different level; he was a great receiver during the season but in the post season, he has been unstoppable thus far.

The bigger surprise was the Arizona defense, actually the discovery that there was an defense in Arizona. We have seen this before in 2006 when the Colts defense went from worst in the regular season to best in the playoffs. There though a couple of players returned from injury (notably Bob Sanders) and you could make sense out of it. In this case, there has been no such dramatic return but they are generating sacks and turnovers.

Pittsburgh – The Steelers have played a brutal schedule this season and overcome the challenge. This team will grind out a win, usually by playing stifling defense and field position. Defensively they have dominated in about every statistical category throughout the season and post season. The defense can make big plays on occasion but their signature is consistent hard hitting and an aggressive game plan.

Offensively they can break the big play in either the running and passing game. They have controlled the clock as much due to the defensive game as their offense. Hines Ward’s health is a concern as he serves as a security blanket for Roethlisberger in the passing game and is a consistent downfield blocker in the running game.

The Super Bowl may not be a great game but there is a real question as to who will win. The Steelers are favored for good reason; they are the better team. The Cardinals can score quickly and the Steelers are not a good come from behind team. The question will become can the Cardinals make inroads against the Steelers defense and keep their offense flexible.

If Pittsburgh can dictate the tempo of the game, they should win easily. Their defense can rush the passer from about every defensive position. Warner, if given time, can throw with surgical precision but under pressure his ball security has been historically poor and the Cardinals can not give the Steelers any extra possessions. On the other hand if the Cardinals can strike early they will be not be in forced passing situations and can take some of the pressure off of the quarterback.

Pittsburgh is going to try to take Larry Fitzgerald out of the equation. Double-teaming him is not sufficient; they will have to hit him coming off the line of scrimmage and keep coverage over the top. If they do not make good contact off the line, he will make plays (and may even if they do) but man coverage is not an option. For Arizona, this may be a question of how recovered Boldin is because he will be facing a lot of single coverage that, if healthy, he can beat.

This has the look of a great defense versus an explosive offense. So what will happen here boils down to these questions:

Can the Arizona line give Warner enough time? Initially yes, though if the Steelers can play for the pass this will be problematic.

Can Arizona get a running game going? No at least not without success in the passing game though James is a good pass blocker and there are likely to be opportunities in the short passing game for him if Pittsburgh over commits to the blitz.

Can the Steelers take Fitzgerald out of the game? Not with coverage, the pass rush has to be working.

Can Arizona stop the Steelers offense? Depends on which Cardinal defense shows up but Whisenhunt knows the Pittsburgh offense and should have either group well prepared. Count on the Steelers to want to test the run defense of the Cardinals and set up the pass with the run if they can.

Players to watch:

Pittsburgh – Polamalu, Taylor, Parker, Ward (health), Farrior

Arizona – Warner, Boldin (health), Fitzgerald, Dansby, Rodgers-Cromartie

The last couple of games Arizona has been able to jump out to early leads. It will be hard for them to repeat that trend but not impossible. Still the likely scenario would seem to be the Steelers to win going away as the Cardinals make turnovers because they are pressing and pressured by the Steelers defense. The problem for Pittsburgh is can they maintain control of the game which seems uncertain unless they can get to Warner early. If they can’t and the possibility that Hines Ward will be limited or even unavailable the pick here is the Cardinals, 28 – 24.

I read an interesting book the other day, worth your while if you have a general interest in the game of football. It is called Why the Left Tackle is Overrated, Blindsided by K. C. Joyner. It is a wide-ranging collection of football information and analysis by one of the leaders in football statistical analysis. The topics covered include a very intriguing study of left tackles and their effectiveness in relationship to other offensive linemen. I am not going to be giving anything away when I tell you he concludes that they are both overrated and overpaid. The analysis though is interesting as to the causes for this phenomena and effect this has on teams in general.

The book also looks at football dynasties, various aspects of the Hall of Fame, and the history and business case of the NFL. The difference though is that KC backs up most of his work with some actual value-based analysis. You may not always like his conclusions but he can actually produce calculable values as a basis for what he has to say. There is plenty of room to debate the measures he has chosen but that is one of the fascinations of the book; it is thought provoking. This is also ostensibly the purpose of the book, which carries the subtitle …Contrarian Football Thoughts.

Joyner is one of several football writers trying to develop a more comprehensive statistical analysis framework for football, similar to what Bill James did for baseball. Improvement of football analysis is certainly desirable but it rates to be a much more complex matter in football than almost any other sport. The complexity of a play in football is amazing and breaking it down is almost impossible since a play has component plays within it, e.g. route options, blocking adjustments. This book though starts the process of applying analysis against some long held tenets of the game to prove or disprove so-called conventional wisdom. It is a worthwhile start in that direction.

He also produces an annual analysis Scientific Football. This is a very worthwhile team-by-team analysis. Joyner is at his best when he is analyzing the play of cornerbacks and wide receivers. His methodology is unique, analysis this area is generally very good, and I have been reading this particular series since he first started publishing it, wouldn’t start a season without it..

The injury to Tom Brady is unfortunate for the Patriots and the NFL. I have seen the replay several time as there is no way to avoid it. Two things, first this was not a dirty play as there is no indication of intent to harm the quarterback in any way. This was just Pollard keeping moving toward the QB. Brady had his foot planted and his weight was forward; the vector of force was in a bad direction for his knee. Pollard did not throw his shoulder at it or grab and lever the leg. This was mostly just unlucky.

Secondly though was that Brady already had an injury to his right foot. The impact of that injury may have directly contributed the knee. Because of the prior injury, he was not moving his feet as normal. The ball was away when the contact was made, ordinarily a quarterback would have brought the weight off of his plant foot at release, because of favoring the right foot one might suspect he was slow getting his left foot out of the turf.

This is common; a player with one injury gets another. Football is a violent sport and players have to play with various injuries but there is a point at which the risk begins out weigh the benefit through diminished performance and increased risk of further damage. It really doesn’t appear that was the case with Brady but it is a factor to keep in mind the next time someone gushes enthusiastically about some player’s determination to “play hurt”. (Anyone have Shawn Merriman’s phone number?)

Brady is out for the season, and will have surgery, so the AFC race suddenly opened up. That in no way is to suggest that New England has become a non-factor in the conference but they are likely in a real fight for their division. They are going to have to change their essential game plan to emphasize the running game and rely more on their defense. Right now, everyone is making up scenarios favoring various teams; each of them about equally as valid, which is to say not very.