Football Forecasters

In the conference round of the playoffs we went 2 – 2 both straight up and against the spread which makes the playoff record 8 – 2 straight up and 7 – 3 against the spread. I only have one game to screw up at this point so it looks like I will be forced to end up with a winning record both ways so I am playing with house money. (Personally, I don’t believe in the concept of house money, once you win it is yours so you can only lose. This attitude probably explains why I do not bet on football; then again, I am a pessimist.)

Super Bowl

The Saints come into the big game off an overtime win in the Championship game where they received the lion’s share of the breaks to get their first trip to the Super Bowl. The Saints have an explosive and diverse offensive; they are very talented at all of the skill positions. The offensive line is very good in the middle though the loss of Jammal Brown early in the season has made them a bit vulnerable at the tackle.

Statistically the Saints led the NFL offensively in points and yardage. Brees led the NFL in quarterback rating and completed over seventy per cent of his passes this season. While the passing game gets most of the attention, they run about forty-five percent of their plays and are very effective; sixth in rushing average at 4.5 yards/carry.

The defense has been up and down over the season; starting very strong but injuries created some issues. Gregg Williams became the defensive coordinator this season and the defense has scheme has become much more aggressive. They blitz aggressively and look to create turnover opportunities. They will give up yardage and points though when the gambles do not pay off.

For the Colts this is their second trip to the Super Bowl in the past four years. They have beaten two excellent defensive teams in rather convincing fashion rolling up 461 total yards of offense against the best defense in the league. The passing game ranked second in the league by yardage but the running game ranked last. Of course, they also had the second highest number of pass attempts (and most completions) and the second fewest rushing attempts. They run the ball just under forty percent of the time.

On the defensive time of the ball, the Colts had a number of injury issues throughout the season but were still, overall, an effective unit. The defense is small and undersized at most positions from the NFL norm, which may contribute to their injury rate. The key to this defense is speed; they swarm to the ball. They still are fundamentally a cover two defense but in this iteration; under Coyer, they are more aggressive than they have been in the past.

This Super Bowl is a rare matchup of number one seeds that feature explosive offenses. The general view is that this should be a high scoring game with multiple lead changes where the last team with the ball wins. It is a nice script and certainly possible but perhaps not as likely as it is being hyped up to be.

The Saints should be looking to their balance and establishing the running game to set up the pass. Despite the showing in the Conference round the Colts are not a team that has given up a lot of deep balls. Big receivers on underneath routes have been particularly successful. The Saints will likely look to setup their play action for any deep plays. The Colts really are not all that vertical of a passing team mostly because opponents do not give them much of an opportunity and Manning is very patient, taking what he is given. A fast pace is generally bad for both teams given the offenses because in that type of game the margin of error is going to be extremely small. Conservative game plans seem likely for both teams.

New Orleans may have a slight edge in overall offense because of their balance. Defensively the Colts have the advantage and it is bigger than it appears from a purely statistical point of view. The problems teams have with playing great offenses like these is that their defense just can not handle the number of weapons the other team can put on the field. However, the Colts have a number of talented defensive backs and do match up reasonably well across the field with the Saints receivers. The same is not true for the Saints, who do not match up well with the second, third, and fourth options of the Colts. The edge in special teams has to go to the Saints purely by virtue of having Reggie Bush as a returner; neither team is particularly strong in this area though.

Brees was statistically the best performer at quarterback in the NFL; Manning was the MVP. This makes sense when you consider that Manning makes everyone around him better and is one of the great students of the game. His games in the playoffs have been amazing not so much in a statistical sense but because he has been throwing the ball with uncanny accuracy, hitting receivers in small openings at the right time. He may have a bad game but that does not seem to be something to count on and as good as Brees is, Manning is better.

Much has been made out of Greg Williams stating that New Orleans would try to get some “remember-me shots” on Manning. He needs to remember that the NFL officials review game film also. The NFL has already noted that the officials missed roughing the passer calls in BOTH championship round games. This is a not so subtle way of reminding both teams that roughing the passer will be a “point of emphasis” in the officiating for the Super Bowl. Expect to see early flags on this, and because of Williams comment, probably the Saints will catch the first one. If Williams is smart, he is just trying to dupe the Colts and is planning to drop eight into coverage frequently.

The Colts have been there before and they are a very stable team with great leadership, this may be an advantage at the start of the game for them but the Colts generally start slow so this might be a wash. The Saints are at a disadvantage though if they fall behind early. While they are capable of staging a come back the Colts defense is at their best when the opponent becomes one-dimensional, Colts win 31 – 21.

In the divisional round of the playoffs we went a perfect 4 – 4 both straight up and against the spread which makes us 6 – 2 straight up and 5 – 3 against the spread for the playoff rounds; I probably should quit now. Obviously, I will not but don’t expect the same results this week.

New York Jets at Indianapolis – The Jets got into the playoffs at least partially due to the generosity of the Colts in Week 16; this game could become a cautionary tale if the Jets should happen to win. Last week they won in San Diego as their defense kept the game close. Their pass coverage was good and they managed to get pressure on Rivers. The blitzes they used last week may be less effective against this week’s quarterback and the pressure may not get there.

The offense continued to grind out the running game, wearing down the Charger defense in the fourth quarter. The game plan started out with runs to the outside, which were largely ineffective; as they focused their run game on the interior line, they were more successful. The passing game was sporadic but they came up with some timely plays there mostly on underneath routes. This is not a team that is designed to come from behind; they will need to start better offensively this week to have a chance.

The Colts offense was a bit flat early in the game but not as much as some may have expected. Manning had a rather average statistical day but he played at an extremely high level completing passes on time and into tight coverage. While the offensive line did a good job against the Raven pass rush, the running game never really got on track.

The key in this game was the Colts defense, which played very well in shutting down the Baltimore running game. The defensive line held up well and the tackling was very good, limiting yards after contact. They forced the Ravens into thirty-five pass attempts against nineteen rushing attempts; the coverage by the secondary was solid and the result predictable.

This week’s game looks a bit like last weeks for both opponents. The Jets pass defense faces a better and more diverse offense though and a better overall defense is better as well. The Jets need to keep this game close and hope to be able to win at the end but even if they manage to stay close the Colt’s seem to be the team to win the close games, Colts win 24 – 14.

Minnesota at New Orleans – Minnesota had a strong performance against Dallas last week after an extra week of rest and preparation. The defense played well and created the turnovers that helped the Vikings dominate. The extra time may have helped work out some more of the issues created by the absence of middle linebacker E.J. Henderson. The outside pass rush was very effective which helps cover some weaknesses that exist in the secondary. This week they will need to get push up the middle to disrupt the Saints attack and close off throwing lanes.

The offense may have looked more effective by the score than it actually was as the Vikings benefited from favorable field position and three extra possessions. The offensive line play was still not consistent. They gave up two sacks but more to the point the running game was not particularly effective; which has been a continuing theme of late for a team with one of the top running backs in the NFL. To win this week the offensive line will need to play much better than they have at any time in the past two months.

New Orleans came out of their bye week and scored three first quarter touchdowns taking immediate control of the game offensively. The offense continued to dominate a Cardinals team that looked tired and overmatched. They had good offensive balance and for the most part seemed to be able to do as they wished, the offensive line played quite well. This week may be more challenging as the Viking defensive line will present a “larger” challenge.

After surrendering a long touchdown on the first play of the game, the defense played well overall and the secondary was outstanding in coverage. The defensive line was not tested by the running game as Arizona was playing from behind; they did get pressure on the quarterback though only one sack. They have been vulnerable against the run this season and will need to control Peterson but will also need to get consistent pressure on Favre in the passing game.

The game rates to be high scoring, both offenses are potent and the defenses have some issues. The special teams could figure into the result as both teams are capable of big plays and the coverage units will be challenged. The offenses of each team are capable of going off and producing big plays at any time. If someone gets hot, one of these teams could end up blowing the other out; but which one is not certain. However, overall the Vikings have not been a good road team and the Saints are the better offense, the Saints win 31 - 28.

In the first week of the playoffs we went 2 – 2 straight up and 1 – 3 against the spread as we were pointedly reminded that turnovers determine game winners as much as talent.

This week has some interesting matchups as well though again mistakes on the field are likely to figure heavily into the results.

Divisional Round

Arizona at New Orleans – Arizona won in overtime in a real pitchers duel last week, strangely winning on a defensive score in a game that featured a dozen offensive touchdowns. The offensive output of the Cardinals is not in question. They have multiple weapons and know how to get them involved, if Boldin is available next week that is just one more resource.

The Arizona defense has been somewhat inconsistent this season but has played very well at times and can mount an effective pass rush. They have some issues and they gave up a lot of yardage and points last week and face the number one offense in the NFL this week.

New Orleans ended the season on a down note losing their last three games. The offense, which averaged over thirty points a game over the season, managed to score only thirty-seven in those games. Still this team has plenty of offensive weapons and the best quarterback in the conference as well.

The defense started the season playing at a very high level but their play has also fallen off the last half of the season. Injuries have played their part in this, losing Charles Grant last week has simply added to the issue. The defensive backs are good but this week they will be challenged to cover and will need the pass rush to pressure and get to Warner.

This has the look of another shootout and points should be plentiful. Likely, the result is going to depend upon who has the ball last or who makes the most mistakes. There the advantage goes to the New Orleans defense who led the NFL in getting turnovers, Saints win 38 – 28.

Baltimore at Indianapolis – Baltimore has been up and down offensively. Their offensive line is excellent and getting better, a young nucleus with veteran Matt Birk at center. The running game is solid, fifth overall in the league, They have a good developing quarterback but lack a true down the field receiving threat.

The defense is still one of the best in the NFL although perhaps not as dominating as they have been in the past. They are still very active and give quarterbacks various unusual looks and run a variety of blitz packages. The front seven are very good but the secondary has given up some big plays but that has improved when Suggs returned and the pass rush picked up.

The Colts are well rested; unfortunately, their history suggests that they are not necessarily at their best coming off a bye week let alone three of them (more or less). Offensively this is a timing based offense as much as anything and slight variations can be significant. Expect the Colts to start slow but this team has come back from a deficit in the fourth quarter in seven games this season.

This is a better overall defense than the Colts have had in recent seasons. It has been nicked up a lot but this unit should be healthy though they too are likely to a bit rusty. They still play the Tampa two style of defense but they are more aggressive under the new coaching staff. Still this is a “bend but don’t break” style that gives up yardage but is stingy about giving up points.

The key here will be if the Ravens can start strong and score early. The Ravens do not have the kind of offense that can come back from a deficit and Indianapolis will tee off on a quarterback who has been forced into playing catch up. Presuming the Colts can shake off the rust before the end of the first half, Colts win 28 – 21.

New York Jets at San Diego – The Jets are a potentially dangerous team, backing into the playoffs they have no expectations to meet. This week they match up very well against a team that many consider the favorite in the division. Their offensive line is one of the most talented in the league and an NFL leading running game is the result. The problem is that they have a rookie quarterback and a limited passing attack, if they get behind in the game.

The Jets had the best defense in the NFL throughout the regular season and were solid in their first playoff game. This is an active defense, which features probably the best cover corner in the NFL; the pass rush is relentless. They will need to be at the top of their defensive game this week; keeping Gates under control is going to be an issue.

San Diego has been the hottest team in the NFL since early in the season and is on an eleven game winning streak. The offense is capable of scoring points quickly from anywhere on the field with their passing game. The running game has been limited though but they do have center Nick Hardwick back after fourteen weeks, which may mitigate their poor running statistics for the season.

The defense of San Diego has not been the centerpiece it once was. Injuries have been a problem particularly losing Jamal Williams for the season, which has hurt their run defense. Their advantage has been in being able to make teams one-dimensional trying to keep up with the offense but this is an average defense.

This match up is intriguing. San Diego has the better overall team from a talent perspective but most of the matchups actually favor New York. The only defensive situation where the Jets are not well placed would be trying to cover the tight end position. The problem will be that the margin of error for the Jets is very narrow but in a mistake free game the Jets should win 27 – 24.

Dallas at Minnesota – Dallas has been playing very well of late, balance is important and their newfound commitment to the running game has been keying the offense. The injury to Barber is of some concern but there is plenty of depth. They still have excellent resources in the passing game and big play potential as Austin has emerged as one of the better number one receivers in the league.

A three four defense the team has played inconsistently at times. They have had problems generating pressure early in the season but that has improved somewhat. They match up well against the run; the front seven are the strength of the defense. DeMarcus Ware sets the tone for the group and when he is playing well Dallas can be dominating.

Minnesota was playing well early in the season but their schedule was a somewhat soft. Favre has a history of declining play at the end of season over the past five years, the bye week may be of some help there. The offensive line has not played well; this is an ongoing issue that impacts the running game too. Still they have talent at the skill positions and Favre can be very streaky this is a dangerous group.

The defensive unit is statistically solid. They did lose Middle linebacker E J Henderson late in the season, which is still an issue not only from a talent standpoint but also because he called defenses. The Vikings had a couple of games to adjust and did look to be playing somewhat better.

Dallas is playing very well at this point in the season but they have a tendency to lose patience and become one-dimensional at times, it is hard to trust their coaching. Minnesota has played well at home this year and the rest is likely to have done them some good, Vikings win 24 – 21.

In week seventeen, we turned in a 10 - 6 result, against the spread, the results were about as expected given the end of year imponderables coming in at 7 - 9. The season record is 176 - 80 straight up and 139 - 113 - 4 against the spread assuring an above average result there. (Line results are taken against the line available to me on Tuesday evening when I make my final choices.) So ends one of my better seasons, and an all time result against the spread

This playoff weekend sees three games that are replays of week seventeen matchups a condition that has never occurred before. Since only one of those matchups last week had any significance, you can expect these games to be much more competitive this week.

Wildcard Round

New York Jets at Cincinnati - The New York Jets have been up and down, the defense is the best in the NFL; they also lead the league in rushing. Many pundits would say that this combination should make them a playoff favorite but the passing game is erratic at best and their rookie, quarterback the primary reason. They are best when they play from the lead and they keep the pressure off of Sanchez.

The Bengals have played well in a difficult division but have had their share of lapses. Their power running game has been their strong point. The passing game has been less effective because of the lack of a second receiver and mediocre pass blocking from the offensive line. The defense is solid especially against the pass, not a big help in this matchup and losing Sims off the defensive line does not bode well for their run defense.

These are two teams with very similar game plans, run the ball play good defense. The issue will be which one is going to do it better this week. New York’s easy win last week is unlikely to be repeated, as the Bengals will not be resting players this time around still, Jets win 21 - 17.

Philadelphia at Dallas - Philadelphia is a frustratingly inconsistent team as they demonstrated throughout the season. They can certainly win depending on the play of McNabb and their ability to pressure on the opposing quarterback to force errors. When they don’t force errors the defense is average; they have to hope that McNabb gets hot, in which case they can beat anyone.

Dallas is playing well at the best time of the season to do so. The defense has been very good of late but they still have some coverage issues that may hurt them. The offense has some good weapons in the passing game but they are best when they establish the running game with both Barber and Jones. When they control the tempo of the game they win.

It is hard to beat a divisional rival three games in a season; there are few surprises left in the playbook at this point. Recent performance favors the Cowboys but McNabb seldom has two bad games in a row and the Cowboy’s playoff history is a concern as well, Cowboys win 24 - 21.

Baltimore at New England - Baltimore has changed formula somewhat, the defense is down a bit but the offense is much better than in recent years. Their offensive line is playing well and the running game is solid. The defensive secondary has given up some big plays; the run defense has been very good.

New England has a huge void to fill with the injury to Welker; however, Edelman provides a reasonable if less talented replacement there. They will need to step up but the running game has been getting better and Kevin Faulk can play in the passing game as well. The defense has had some problems wearing down late but they expect to get some players back.

The match up here is going to depend on the passing game; the Patriots defense can stop the run. Moss is going to prove to be a very difficult match up but Brady will have to get everyone else involved in the passing game and they need to get out to an early lead to control the tempo of the game, Patriots win 21 -17.

Green Bay at Arizona - Green Bay has a prolific offense that has gotten better as the season progressed and the offensive line matured and protection for Rogers improved. The defense has improved also having changed to the 3-4 this season their talent is good but the personnel are not ideal for this scheme.

The injury to Boldin is a concern here and his status for the game is uncertain at this time. Their offense has plenty of weapons but will need them all. The defense has been up and down at times and has some injury issues there as well that are a concern. Fitzgerald’s record setting play and the defense really made the playoff run possible last season and they will need that magic again.

Both of these teams rely on their offenses and have plenty of scoring ability. This game will be closer than the week seventeen matchup but it is hard to see the Cardinals recovering enough against a Green Bay team that is playing well at the right time, Packers win 28 - 20.

In week sixteen, we turned in a reasonable 11 – 4 result, against the spread, the results were also rather good at 10 – 6. The season record is 166 – 74 straight up and 132 – 104 – 4 against the spread assuring an above average result there. (Line results are taken against the line available to me on Tuesday evening when I make my final choices.)

This is always a tough week to pick because it is hard to determine which teams are going to phone in the last game of the season. Right now there are a number of teams who might and one or two who already have so this will be more of a guessing game than usual.

I participate in a pick’em league and these choices reflect the picks for my league selections; for my league I can make changes until the first game kicks off and will (rarely) based on last minute injury information. These are for amusement value only; please do not confuse these choices with the picks this site makes for betting purposes. I do not gamble on football for what seems like obvious reasons.

Atlanta at Tampa Bay – Tampa Bay is not a team that will be quitting before the season is over but lack of talent is the issue. Atlanta will also play through the end, their injuries have been a problem but they seem to have the depth, Falcons win 24 – 14.

Indianapolis at Buffalo – The Bills may not quit but their ability to score points even against the players they are going to see on defense this week is questionable. Assuming Indianapolis plays their starters for the first half (there are some player milestones involved) it should be enough, Colts win 21 – 20.

New Orleans at Carolina – Carolina has been playing well but Steve Smith breaking his arm limits their offensive options too severely. New Orleans is not playing for anything and may choose to rest players but will be looking to go into the playoffs on a positive note, Saints win 24 – 20.

Chicago at Detroit – Detroit did not have a lot of talent when the season started and injuries have further restricted their options. Chicago took some injuries on Monday night and they are not a good team but they are good enough this week, Bears win 24 – 14.

Jacksonville at Cleveland – Cleveland may have discovered a running game but they still have a bad defense and no passing game to speak of. Jacksonville is technically in the playoff hunt and are likely looking for a win to avoid a losing season, Jaguars win 24 – 21.

New England at Houston – Houston is in theory still in the playoff race; while the offense is formidable, the defense is still inconsistent. New England is a team that never seems to let up though a win here really will not impact their playoff position, Patriots win 24 – 21.

Pittsburgh at Miami – The Dolphins are another team technically in the playoff hunt but need miracles at this point starting with a win here. Pittsburgh has been doing their part to get into the playoffs but need help, they must win here though to have any chance, Steelers win 28 – 17.

New York Giants at Minnesota – The Giants have been up and down all season with issues on both sides of the ball. Minnesota will be trying to win to assure a first round bye with a possible shot at home field advantage throughout, Vikings win 31 – 24.

San Francisco at St Louis – St Louis has a stranglehold on the first pack in the draft that they will not be putting at risk here particularly with Jackson ailing. San Francisco is playing for average, which is a step up from their recent history, Forty-niners win 24 – 10.

Green Bay at Arizona – Green Bay looks like they will be playing this game in consecutive weeks, which gives them no reason to expose their playbook. The same argument applies to Arizona in a game that will essentially be a scrimmage before the real event, Cardinals win 21 – 17.

Baltimore at Oakland – Oakland has been very dangerous at home to east coast teams but the offense depends on the running game, which does not match up well here. Baltimore simply needs to win to make the playoffs; they should manage that, Ravens win 24 – 14.

Philadelphia at Dallas – The Cowboys are playing well but the offensive line is not back to full health and Romo has issues with pressure. Philadelphia has big play potential on any play and an active defensive scheme that matches well here, Eagles win 28 – 24.

Kansas City at Denver – The Chiefs have an opportunity to knock a division rival out of the playoffs but that seems unlikely based on their talent level. Denver has to win and will need some help for the playoffs, a loss would reprise last season’s collapse, Broncos win 24 – 21.

Washington at San Diego – Washington has not played which much focus, their offensive line is makeshift and the offense lacks weapons. San Diego should win this game even though they rate to be resting starters early and often, Chargers win 20 – 10.

Tennessee at Seattle – Seattle has problems with their pass defense and the offensive line is bad but there has also been poor effort here. Tennessee has some problems in the defensive secondary as well but effort is not one of their issues, Titans win 24 – 10.

New York Jets at Cincinnati – The Bengals are unlikely to have anything to play for here a win is unlikely to help them much but a loss might and this could be their first round playoff opponent. For New York, it is win and in the playoffs, Jets win 21 – 17.

In week fifteen, we turned in a reasonable straight up result, coming in at 11 – 5; against the spread, the results were down at 5 – 9 – 2. The season record is 155 – 69 straight up and 122 – 98 – 4 against the spread. (Line results are taken against the line available to me on Tuesday evening when I make my final choices.)

I participate in a pick’em league and these choices reflect the picks for my league selections; for my league I can make changes until the first game kicks off and will (rarely) based on last minute injury information. These are for amusement value only; please do not confuse these choices with the picks this site makes for betting purposes. I do not gamble on football for what seems like obvious reasons.

San Diego at Tennessee – While the Tennessee running game matches up very well this week; their overall pass defense is the Achilles heel. San Diego is playing to lock up a first round bye; they will need to play well to do it this week, Chargers win 27 – 24.

Buffalo at Atlanta – The Bills have number of injury problems and are playing with effort but the talent level is not sufficient. Atlanta has certainly had their injury problems also at certain key positions but they are getting some people back, Atlanta wins 20 – 10.

Baltimore at Pittsburgh – Baltimore is playing well but needs a win against a division rival on the road and they have problems in the defensive secondary. Pittsburgh has been up and down, they match up potentially well this week, Steelers win 27 – 24.

Carolina at New York Giants – Carolina has been a disappointment, mostly because of their own inconsistency and mistakes. New York has also underperformed to expectations, particularly defensively where they have been giving up too many points, Giants win 21 – 17.

Kansas City at Cincinnati – The Chiefs have a number of consistency problems but their defense has been generally poor and the offense ineffective. Cincinnati has a good power running game which is the match up advantage this week, Bengals win 28 – 14.

Oakland at Cleveland – Oakland will have to figure out who will be playing quarterback this week, it looks like Russell may get the nod. Cleveland has won two in a row and showed some offense last week and quality special teams play, Browns win 17 – 10.

Seattle at Green Bay – The Seahawks have been genuinely horrible the past few weeks, with inept offense and a defense that seems unable to tackle. Green Bay took a tough loss last week, their offense played well but the defense played soft at times, Packers win 28 – 10.

Houston at Miami – Houston travels to Miami after a lackluster effort last week; the running game is disappearing as an option and they cannot afford to be one-dimensional. The Dolphins are playing well but will need to take better care of the ball; Dolphins win 24­ – 20.

Jacksonville at New England – The Jaguars have had extra time to prepare for this game but it is not enough time to fix their mediocre pass defense. New England has a number of injuries to contend with but the matchups still favor them, Patriots win 28 – 21.

Tampa Bay at New Orleans – Tampa Bay is coming off a one game winning streak, which seems likely to be as long as it gets this season. New Orleans lost for the time this season but still need to win to lock up home field advantage, Saints win 35 – 14.

St Louis at Arizona – The Rams are looking secure the first pick in the draft (Suh) and seem unlikely to complicate the picture this week. Arizona has clinched the division and their only chance for a bye is theoretical at this point, Cardinals win 28 – 10.

Detroit at San Francisco – Detroit is on the road to west coast, who gets the starts a quarterback is not at all clear but it is not going to matter. San Francisco has not been consistent but they have some bright spots, Forty-niners win 24 – 10.

Denver at Philadelphia – Denver needs to win but have been inconsistent, they have settled for too many field goals as opposed to touchdowns. The Eagles are inconsistent but generally play well in December; they need to avoid turnovers here, Eagles win 24 – 20.

New York Jets at Indianapolis – The Jets have a very good defense particularly against the pass and that matchup looks good, their offense struggles. The Colts have had extra rest for this game, and should be playing at near their full strength, Colts win 28 – 21.

Dallas at Washington – Washington has a number of weaknesses including the burden of what appears to be a lame-duck coach. Dallas has the talent to make the playoffs but they suffer odd letdowns at times, they need to focus on this game, Cowboys win 27 – 17.

Minnesota at Chicago – Chicago is a poor team, the defense is ineffective the offense bad in almost all phases. Minnesota may be wearing down a bit, the defensive secondary is average and the offensive line play flat but against this opponent, Vikings win 28 – 10.

Indianapolis at Jacksonville – Defensively Jacksonville has problems in the secondary and poor tackling; the offense is inconsistent. How many players will Indianapolis be resting at this point is not at all clear yet as long as Manning and the receiver corps are though Colts win 24 – 20.

Dallas at New Orleans – The Cowboys are not a team that seems to handle ether pressure or adversity very well and they are looking at both as their season may be disappearing. New Orleans has struggled a bit but plays very well at home, Saints win 35 – 24.

Arizona at Detroit – Detroit is not a particularly good team playing their fourth good team in a row, with predictable results. Arizona will dominate any team that cannot get pressure on Warner or cover, this week’s opponent can do neither, Cardinals win 28 – 14.

Atlanta at New York Jets – The Falcons have considerable injury issues and are not a particularly good road team. The Jets running game should do well against the Atlanta defensive front as their offensive line is playing well, Jets win 24 – 17.

New England at Buffalo – Buffalo plays well at home but their offensive line is patchwork; the defense has been surprisingly effective. New England is still a solid offensive team; the defense however has been inconsistent and wearing down late in games, Patriots win 21 – 20.

Chicago at Baltimore – The Bears are still offensively challenged, the offensive line can not block for either the run or pass and the defense has injuries. Baltimore is playing for a post-season berth; their deep secondary is vulnerable but not so much this week, Ravens win 28 – 17.

Cleveland at Kansas City – Kansas City is not particularly good in any aspect of the game right now they lead the NFL in turnovers, not a good stat. Cleveland has had some extra time to prepare and have figured out that Cribbs is their best weapon, Browns win 17 – 13.

Houston at St Louis – The Rams may have worn down Jackson who is their only effective offensive threat; the defense is terrible. Houston has an explosive offensive and the deep passing game should be effective this week, Texans win 28 – 14.

Miami at Tennessee – Miami after losing their most productive offensive weapon is playing to their strengths, a good running game and an improving defense. Tennessee runs well but also defends the run, which gives them the edge this week, Titans win 27 – 20.

San Francisco at Philadelphia – The Forty-niners are a dangerous team in that the defense plays well and the offense while unspectacular is productive. Philadelphia is playing well but they still tend to have let downs after big wins and need to be careful here, Eagles win 24 – 21.

Cincinnati at San Diego – Cincinnati needs a better second option in the passing game and better pass protection from the offensive line. San Diego does not really match up all that well this week and will need all of their weapons, Chargers win 28 – 24.

Oakland at Denver – The Raiders are down to Frye at quarterback (Russell is still on the bench), who probably will not help their offense, the running game will probably get the focus. Denver is not a team that is well equipped to play from behind, not likely a problem this week, Broncos win 24 – 14.

Green Bay at Pittsburgh – Green Bay has been adapting to a new defensive scheme this season and now are one of the league leaders. Pittsburgh has had a few extra days to prepare for this game a lot will depend upon improvement in line play this week, Steelers win 24 – 21.

Tampa Bay at Seattle – The Buccaneers are looking at possibly the first pick in the draft next season a trip to the west coast is not likely to help. Seattle has been up and down but they are the better team this week, Seahawks win 24 – 10.

Minnesota at Carolina – Carolina has a good pass defense but the offensive play has been uneven and injuries have been a problem. Minnesota has been one of the healthier teams and good offensive balance, Vikings win 24 – 14.

New York Giants at Washington – The Redskins have been producing points offensively, but giving up too many defensively. New York has been up and down but are fighting to stay in the playoff race, the defense will need to step up, Giants win 28 – 21.

In week thirteen, we turned in an average straight up result, coming in at 10 – 6; and against the spread, the results was the inverse coming in at 6 – 10. The season record is 132 – 60 straight up and 106 – 84 – 2 against the spread. (Line results are taken against the line available to me on Tuesday evening when I make my final choices.)

I participate in a pick’em league and these choices reflect the picks for my league selections; for my league I can make changes until the first game kicks off and will (rarely) based on last minute injury information. These are for amusement value only; please do not confuse these choices with the picks this site makes for betting purposes. I do not gamble on football you need only look at last week’s results to understand why.

Pittsburgh at Cleveland – Cleveland played a solid game last week against a good opponent but still came up short, and probably will again. Pittsburgh has been ineffective defensively and, at this point, despite injuries they still have more talent this week, Steelers win 21 – 17.

New Orleans at Atlanta – The Falcons offense has been crippled by key injuries; both Ryan and Turner may be back this week but that is not likely to be enough. New Orleans close game last week should serve to refocus them, Saints win 35 – 20.

Detroit at Baltimore – For Detroit the status of Stafford is unclear and their defense gives up more points faster than anyone else in the NFL. Baltimore is coming off a short week, they should still dominate this week on both sides of the ball, Ravens win 24 – 10.

Buffalo at Kansas City – The Chiefs have been ineffective offensively, benching Cassel had no positive effect but it may have a lingering negative one. Buffalo has had an extra few days to prepare for this game and rest up, Bills win 20 – 17.

Carolina at New England – Carolina matches up reasonably well as they have a good running game and a decent pass defense. New England has played well at home and should get back on track here assuming Brady is ready to go, Patriots win 24 – 17.

Green Bay at Chicago – The Bears probably have the worst offensive line in the league, and defensively injuries are mounting up. The Green Bay defense should dominate and the offense will have ample opportunities, Packers win 28 – 10.

Cincinnati at Minnesota – Cincinnati is essentially a running team, which may be difficult in a dome environment on the road. Minnesota has to compensate for the loss of Henderson to their defense but the offense should get back on track here, Vikings win 24 – 21.

Denver at Indianapolis – The Broncos have a balanced offense and a top five defense and will need to take care of the ball. Indianapolis has been getting more balance in their offense and the defense is getting healthier, Colts win 24 – 21.

Seattle at Houston – Seattle has issues along the offensive line that has led to inconsistent offensive performance. Houston has lost their last four in a row despite having one of the more dynamic offenses in the league, Texans win 28 – 21.

Miami at Jacksonville – The Dolphins have a solid ground game and a young defense that has been up and down Jacksonville is a run-based team and will have their work cut out; the defense is decent against the run, Jaguars win 24 – 20.

New York Jets at Tampa Bay – Tampa Bay has a rookie quarterback and the issues that come with that and the second worse run defense in the NFL. New York has the best running offense in the league, which should have no problems here, Jets win 24 – 14.

Washington at Oakland – Washington defense is solid, the offense inconsistent but they seem to find new ways to lose games late every week. Oakland is playing much better with Gradkowski at quarterback, not that they are good team, Raiders win 20 – 17.

St Louis at Tennessee – The Rams are playing out the string staying in contention for the first choice in the draft next year. The Titans are not a team that can play well from behind which should not be an issue this week, Titans win 28 – 10.

San Diego at Dallas – Dallas has a great deal of talent that seems to underachieve; that makes the coaching suspect. San Diego is playing very well offensively and while the defense has some fundamental issues, Chargers win 28 – 24.

Philadelphia at New York Giants – The Giants are a difficult team to figure, injuries have been a factor but the defensive secondary has been erratic. Philadelphia looks like they will have Jackson back; he will be needed this week, Eagles win 21 – 17.

Arizona at San Francisco – San Francisco is a solid team but lack depth in spots and have had a number of injury issues. Arizona has had a dynamic offense but the defense is starting to play well in its own right, Cardinals win 27 – 24

The Crystal Ball

In week twelve we turned in another strong straight up result, coming in at 13 – 3; and this week against the spread, the results were the best of the season thus far at 13 – 2 – 1. The season record is 122 – 54 straight up and 100 – 74 – 2 against the spread. Line results are taken against the line available to me on Tuesday evening when I make my final choices.)

I participate in a pick’em league and these choices reflect the picks for my league selections; for my league I can make changes until the first game kicks off and will (rarely) based on last minute injury information. These are for amusement value only; please do not confuse these choices with the picks this site makes for betting purposes. I do not gamble on football you need only look at last week’s results to understand why.

New York Jets at Buffalo – Buffalo almost looks like they have found an offense, despite an offensive line decimated by injury. New York is very erratic offensively, particularly in the passing game but the defense is good, Jets win 17 – 13.

Philadelphia at Atlanta – Atlanta has some injury issues, while the backups are competent they are backups, Ryan is out and a couple of linemen as well. Philadelphia is still offensively inconsistent and they have injured receivers, Eagles win 27 – 17.

Tampa Bay at Carolina – Tampa Bay has changed their defensive approach, reverting to the principles gap control and the cover-two. Carolina has a good run offense, which bodes well in this match up, as they are likely without Delhomme, Panthers win 24 – 17.

St Louis at Chicago – The Rams are playing out the string; staying in contention for the first round choice in the draft. Chicago has had generally inconsistent play defensively and their offensive line play has been terrible but this week should make them look better, Bears win 24 – 14.

Detroit at Cincinnati – Detroit has been working on rebuilding but there are still a number of unmet needs, particularly on the defense. Cincinnati is playing well and should have Benson back for this game, Bengals win 28 – 13.

Denver at Kansas City – Kansas City has been up and down, they have limited talent overall and the defense in particular has been disappointing. Denver has been a surprise as the defense improved dramatically over prior seasons, Broncos win 24 – 17.

Houston at Jacksonville – Jacksonville has plenty of offensive talent but very uneven results; defensively they cover poorly and tackle worse. Houston really misses Daniels in their offense despite having plenty of compensating talent; the defense is improving, Texans win 23 – 20.

Tennessee at Indianapolis – The Titans are on a five game winning streak; the offense has opened up a bit but the receivers are a limiting factor. Indianapolis continues to win from behind; it has to catch up to them sometime but not this week, Colts win 28 – 20.

New England at Miami – Miami has been playing well considering their injuries to key players and changes in their roster and they play hard. New England is on a short week but is the more talented team here by a wide margin, Patriots win 28 – 17.

New Orleans at Washington – Washington has a variety of injury issues and do not have a lot of depth behind the missing starters. The Saints have a diverse offense that can seemingly score at will; though this game could be a bit of a trap, Saints win 24 – 14.

Oakland at Pittsburgh – Oakland is struggling along but has played surprisingly well at home against east coast teams. Pittsburgh lost a close game and find themselves in a struggle to make the playoffs; Roethlisberger is likely back, Steelers win 24 – 10

San Diego at Cleveland – The Browns have lost Rogers for the season making a bad defense somehow even worse, and the defense is better than the offense. San Diego is rolling, the offense is prolific; the defense is improving, Chargers win 35 – 14.

Dallas at New York Giants – The Giants are struggling defensively, they are not covering well and the line has been soft against the run. Dallas has been inconsistent offensively; the defense has started to play with more intensity, Cowboys win 24 – 21.

San Francisco at Seattle – Seattle has significant issues along the offensive line, they do not play well against an aggressive defensive front. San Francisco has started to play more aggressively on offense, which has worked well for them; the defense is solid, Forty-niners win 27 – 21.

Minnesota at Arizona – Arizona may not have Warner back; though the defense is playing well it will not be enough without him. Minnesota is perhaps the healthiest team in the NFL right now and playing well though the opposition is a bit more challenging, Vikings win 28 – 24.

Baltimore at Green Bay – Baltimore had a difficult overtime win last week; the defensive secondary is vulnerable deep. Green Bay has the number one defense (yardage) in the NFL but has some injuries that may erode that statistic, Packers win 24 – 20.

In week eleven we turned in a our best straight up results of the season, a very respectable 13 – 3; however against the spread, the results were the worst of the season thus far at 6 – 10. The season record is 109 – 51 straight up and 87 – 72 – 1 against the spread. Line results are taken against the line available to me on Tuesday evening when I make my choices.)

I participate in a pick’em league and these choices reflect the picks for my league selections; for my league I can make changes until the first game kicks off and will (rarely) based on last minute injury information. These are for amusement value only; please do not confuse these choices with the picks this site makes for betting purposes. I do not gamble on football you need only look at last week’s results to understand why.

Green Bay at Detroit – The Detroit offense looked good last week but the defense looked terrible, the opponent this week is somewhat stronger. Green Bay has some significant defensive injuries but the offense should not have a difficult time, Packers win 28 – 14.

Oakland at Dallas – The Raiders changed quarterbacks and improved their offense; they still are not very good, just less embarrassing. The Dallas offense will be featured on milk cartons around the country this week, but this opponent can make anyone healthy, Cowboys win 27 – 10.

New York Giants at Denver – Denver is struggling with injuries, while they have played better than expected this season they do not have much depth. New York has issues with their defensive secondary but can control the tempo of the game, Giants win 24 – 20.

Tampa Bay at Atlanta – Tampa Bay has the worse run defense in the NFL and mediocre offensive prospects. Atlanta has injuries to their running game but they have depth and decent run blocking from their offensive line, Falcons win 27 – 17.

Miami at Buffalo – Buffalo has had a variety of injuries; particularly hard hit has been the defense their strongest unit, the offense has been inconsistent. Miami has lost their best offensive weapon but Williams stepped up at running back and the defense is solid, Dolphins win 27 – 21.

Carolina at New York Jets – The Panthers have a strong running game but do not play well from behind. New York has a good run defense and should be able to set the tempo; their offense also depends on the getting the rushing game going, Jets win 24 – 20.

Cleveland at Cincinnati – The Browns find new ways to lose every week and this week is unlikely to be much different. Cincinnati also found a creative way to lose, this week they have a chance to sweep the division and they should have no problem, Bengals win 27 – 14.

Indianapolis at Houston – Houston is at home though on a short week and after a physical game against their nemesis. Indianapolis has won some very ugly games some with defense some with offense, they seem to be able to do what they have to, Colts win 28 – 24.

Washington at Philadelphia – The Redskins lost another running back and another offensive lineman from an already ailing offense. In case you have lost the theme here, Philadelphia is incredibly inconsistent and plays down to their opponent still Eagles win 24 – 21.

Seattle at St Louis – St Louis will be starting Boller at quarterback, a setback to an offense that was showing some improvement. Seattle has injury issues on defense and the offensive line is not particularly good but they can exploit a weaker team, Seahawks win 24 – 17.

Jacksonville at San Francisco – Jacksonville has some real offensive talent but their defense tackles poorly and has a poor pass rush. San Francisco has a quality running back and two receivers, who will be difficult to defend this week, Forty-niners win 24 – 20.

Kansas City at San Diego – The Chief defense gives up points and the offense does not score nearly enough to compensate. The Charger offense can score points in bunches and the defense has stepped up as the season has progressed, Chargers win 31 – 14.

Arizona at Tennessee – Tennessee has the running game working and the defense therefore is less challenged. Arizona has a lot of offense (assuming Warner is starting) and if they jump out to an early lead can dictate tempo, Arizona wins 24 – 21.

Chicago at Minnesota – The Bears offensive line does not block well and Cutler is under a lot of pressure, which contributes to his problems, this week it gets worse. The Vikings play well at home should wear down an undersized defense, Vikings win 28 – 14.

Baltimore at Pittsburgh – The Pittsburgh defense is less effective without Polamalu and the offensive line play has been mediocre. Baltimore needs a win to have a realistic playoff chance and their game matches up reasonably well here, Ravens win 24 – 21.

New England at New Orleans – The Patriots have a very good offense but the defense can get warn down as the game goes on. New Orleans has an offense that does everything well including blocking and can be very physical, Saints win 31 – 24.