Football Forecasters

Last week against the spread we were 2 – 0 straight up so there we are 7 – 3 straight up; against the spread we were 1 – 1 so there we are 6 – 4 which means that we will come in over average no matter what happens with the Super Bowl pick.

The Super Bowl is very much about hype and is the most over analyzed game of the year because it has to be. There are elements here on both sides that are advantageous one way or another but the balance is close in most areas.  These are similar teams and the prospect for a good game is substantial, of course turnovers or a a couple of fortunate bounces could make a lot of difference.

The Super Bowl

New York at New England – The Patriots have the offense to score against anyone and most teams cannot keep up. This is based on the fact that the matchups are impossible to substitute for and few teams have a defense that can cope with their receivers. The passing game is versatile and precise; receivers can line up virtually anywhere. They are a bit one-dimensional; the running game is effective but underutilized.

The New England defense in the playoffs has looked considerably better than it did during the season, of course neither Denver nor Baltimore are exactly offensive juggernauts. Still their season statistics are somewhat misleading given that they were leading most games and willing to trade yardage for time off of the clock. Still this is not a good defense but they are not as bad as they have been portrayed either; unfortunately they have a limited pass rush and lack consistent deep coverage, a bad combination.

The Giants defense starts with their defensive line; they have a pass rush that is very effective and their lineup is deep allowing for a pass rush that keeps fresh due to their rotation. The tackles and linebackers are stout against the run and the secondary is competent. (This is easier when you know that your time in coverage will be limited by the pass rush.) They are as healthy as they have been at any time this season and a formidable weapon.

The New York offense is relatively healthy as well. The passing game is explosive an can make big plays, sometimes over looked is that this was the fourth most productive passing offense in the NFL. The running game has been inconsistent but having both backs healthy has improved things there somewhat. Overall they have offensive versatility that gives them flexibility.

Both offensive lines are solid with a slight edge to New England. New England has the better overall passing game; they have more weapons and better precision though the overall edge is not great; the edge in the running game at this point in the season goes slightly to New York. The Giants will not be able to exploit that advantage if behind and the Patriots defensive front is solid. New York has the better overall defense by a significant margin and the pass rush could be telling particularly if they should get a lead. The quarterbacks are much more evenly matched than many might believe but Brady has to be given the very slight edge based on experience.

While Patriot injury reports are not necessarily the most reliable indicators the injury to Gronkowski is potentially a significant blow to the Patriot intermediate passing game. A high ankle sprain could impact his speed and ability to make sharp cuts which would affect timing of routes. New England can ill-afford this particular injury if it does in fact impact his play.

When you have two weeks to prepare the coaching figures in; Belichick will certainly have something special planned. Scheming to slowdown the pass rush is certainly possible but defensively the Patriots have to field a consistent pass rush while maintain effective coverage. A tall order but perhaps possible; certainly there is extra motivation here. Any turnover advantage should be decisive and this should be a competitive game barring that. Still the talent advantage here is to New York if they can leverage it, Giants win 28 – 24.

We did improve last week to 3 – 1 both straight up and against the spread bringing the record so far for the playoffs to 5 – 3 again for both so far. This compares against the 2011 season results 68 % straight up and 45.6% against the spread. I got the Giants pick right and Kurt got the Forty-niners game correct we had a perfect weekend between us.

The conference playoff games have an opportunity to both be very good contests. Turnovers seemed to be the rule of the day this past week in a couple of games. This is typical; more football games are lost as opposed to actually being won. That trend is likely to continue into this weekend and both games while both games look to be competitive turnovers can change the landscape quickly.

Our Super Bowl choice will be available the Wednesday before the Super Bowl so we will not be posting next week. There would be a certain irony in this year of the big passing games to have the season come down to a San Francisco – Baltimore Super Bowl. The brother angle is a good story line as well but I have my doubts that will be how it works out as you will see below.

The Conference Round

New York at San Francisco – San Francisco has been good at taking care of the ball and lead the league in take-aways. Turnovers have an element of luck, the oddly-shaped ball bounces funny and luck is a bigger factor here than most are willing to acknowledge. Still the defense is very good and the matchup favors them this week. The offense, despite game ending heroics last week, has been somewhat plodding overall but may have greater big play potential than recognized.

New York is playing very well. The defense is very good against the pass but this week will face a more balanced attack which will make them more vulnerable overall. Still the ability of the defense to get pressure with the line gives them flexibility in arranging their defensive assets. The offense is capable but expect San Francisco to take the running game away early; if they can establish the threat of the run play action does have potential to open up a big play which is an edge in this game

This is a difficult game to call, the match ups are very close overall. New York has the better offense, San Francisco the better defense and special teams but the overall margin across these aspects is very close and the game will likely come down to a mistake or big play at the end. The one place where the difference in quality is most clear is at quarterback so the choice here goes with Manning, Giants win 24 – 21.

Baltimore at New England – Baltimore is a team that has defined itself with its defense. They play with speed to the ball and tackle well but much of their success is based on making big plays, turnovers, interceptions, scoring defensively. An issue will be how they match up against the New England tight ends. The offense works off the running game and play action passing. Flacco throws a good deep ball but the team does not have much in the way of reliable receivers aside from Boldin and the offensive line has been erratic.

New England has been playing well offensively; the offense is based on not allowing defenses to match up against their skill personnel. They can play the same player grouping as a two tight end set or as five wide. Brady can read a defense and has a quick release which makes this an offense that is difficult to slow down let alone stop. The defense however can keep most opponents in the game though; they do not have much of a pass rush and have been poor tacklers.

This is also an interesting game to try to figure out. Baltimore plays with a great deal of emotion and seems to play better against their stronger opponents; they play with great emotion and are probably overall the better team in terms of talent. In a close game where they can get the running game going to control the tempo they have a lot of positives. Unfortunately if they fall behind they lack the tools to come back. The New England defense gives up a lot of yardage but has not given up points correspondingly, again going with the better quarterback, Patriots win 35 – 24.

The divisional week playoff games are often somewhat less interesting than the wildcard games. This set of games though should be fairly competitive with possibly the exception of Denver who has a chance but is seriously outclassed in terms of offensive talent. Next week there will be four teams still left on the road to the Super Bowl. The NFC looks more competitive than the AFC at this point. The playoff choices went 2-2 both straight up and against the spread. We will try to improve on that this week.

The Divisional Round

New Orleans at San Francisco – San Francisco has the best overall defense in the NFL; they are excellent against the run and decent against the pass as well. The offense is built around the running game and ball control. There are talented weapons in the passing game but there is a lack of consistency in their performance.

New Orleans has the best offense in the NFL, they can seemingly score from anywhere at any time. They have more offensive weapons then they can get on the field at one time and they use them all over the course of a game. The defense has given up a lot of passing yards but is decent against the run which is a matchup of concern this week.

San Francisco needs to keep this game in control by keeping Brees on the sidelines, they cannot win a shootout. That is much easier said than done and the team that led the league in field goals will have to come up with touchdowns instead this week which seems unlikely, Saints win 31 – 21.

Denver at New England – Denver managed to roll up an impressive win against a somewhat undermanned Pittsburgh team. The defense played well, this is a fast and aggressive defense that moves to the ball and tackles well. The offense works off of the running game and uses that to set up the pass, going vertical whenever possible. Tebow is not particularly accurate but he has a strong arm.

New England is all about their offense. This works because they can simply swamp a defense with weapons and get mismatches because of their versatile use of personnel. In their base package they can put two receivers out in the pattern or five making it impossible for a defense to respond with specialized personnel groupings. Their defense is something less dynamic, giving up the second most yards from scrimmage in the NFL.

When these teams played earlier New England jumped out to a lead and Denver made multiple turnovers as they struggled in their comeback attempt. Denver will have to maintain ball control and keep New England off of the field to have a chance. New England simply has to not make mistakes and history repeats itself, Patriots win 31 – 17.

Houston at Baltimore – Houston has a top offensive line which provides excellent blocking for two very good running backs that is the heart of this offense. Yates is a true rookie quarterback and often looks like one; Andre Johnson is a great weapon whose presence on the field automatically opens up the field for everyone else because of his big play potential. The defense is sound both against the rush and the pass. Injuries have weakened the depth of this group but hey are still formidable.

Baltimore plays very well at home and the rest should allow Boldin to be available for this game, important as he is their possession receiver. The offensive line play has been inconsistent but has improved somewhat as the season has progressed. The defense is strength of this team and they are very good against the run. Probably more importantly this is a big play defense that is capable of generating turnovers.

The strength to strength matchup is the Houston running game against the Baltimore front seven which has the edge to Baltimore overall tough slightly. The rookie quarterback will have a difficult time with the pressure and looks that he is going to get this week, Ravens win 27 – 21.

New York at Green Bay – Green Bay has a strong offense that is very explosive; in the passing game can generate points in a hurry. The running game has been somewhere between inadequate and non-existent though. With the week off they should be getting back a couple of key offensive linemen and their best receiver. The defense has been very successful at getting turnovers but they also give up yardage in huge chunks.

New York is possibly as healthy as they have been at any point during the season. This is of particular importance along the defensive line where their depth gives them a rotation that allows them to maintain a high energy pass rush. On the other of the ball both running backs are healthy and productive as well for the first time all season giving the offense a potential for ball control and to wear opponents down in the fourth quarter.

The match up here is good for New York if they can keep the game close; the pass rush will get to Rodgers at least enough to reduce his comfort level. New York has passing weapons of their own and if they can avoid turnovers Giants win 31 – 28.

We closed out the season with a 12 – 4 straight up record for the week and the season record closes out at 174 –82. All in all not too bad of a straight up record for the season it would be my second best year since starting here in 2006. Picking against the spread was an entirely different story the final week was 5 – 10 – 1; which is the first season in that same time period that I have been below average on the year ending at 114 – 136 – 6. All in all I consider this a very tough year to pick, the lack of preseason and injuries made determining talent and consistency very difficult.

The playoffs should be interesting in a strange way. I have no real idea who the favorites are this season. Every team is flawed, some of the higher seeded teams critically so. Both Green Bay and New England have terrible defenses only marginally better than New Orleans. San Francisco and Baltimore have solid defenses but inconsistent offenses, neither one have much chance if they have to come back from a deficit. Pittsburgh has a mediocre offensive line and their defense has had problems against high octane offenses. I am not sure that I like any of these teams.

I suppose that the favorite going in has to be Green Bay given home field and their ability to score though the weather there could actually work against them. If the Super Bowl should end up with Green Bay against New England I think that the score could end up looking like it was a basketball game. But perhaps we will see some kind of a dark horse candidate emerge and get hot in the playoffs.

The Wildcard Round

Cincinnati at Houston – Houston comes into the playoffs in reverse off of three consecutive loses. They have been having offensive difficulties since Shaub went down and have been without their best receiver for most of the season. The offensive line is very good and the running game is sound but their ability to get offensive consistency in the passing game has been poor the last several weeks. The defense can be good and was the strength of this team but it seems to have fallen off of late.

Cincinnati has been a bit of a surprise this season. The defense was expected to be decent and has exceeded expectations somewhat. They can get pressure on the passer but the test here will be how they fare against the rushing attack where they have given up some big plays on occasion. The offense is keyed off of their rookie quarterback and big plays made by Green the rookie receiver but they have other weapons and the vertical threat opens up the rest of the field for everyone else.

The Texans need to turn it back on but that is generally very difficult to accomplish at this time of year, getting Johnson back could be the needed catalyst but rust and a balky hamstring make that a feeble reed to hang one’s hope on. This should be a close game and turnovers often decide these issues in the final analysis but the slight edge goes to the Bengals 24 – 21.

Detroit at New Orleans – Detroit has a great offense, they are talented and explosive capable of scoring from anywhere as Stafford, who has been somewhat ignored was the third quarterback to throw for over 5,000 yards this season, when there have been only two in NFL history prior to this season. The running game is somewhat more limited and the offensive line merely average if that. The defense has an outstanding line which helps the defensive backs look somewhat better than they are.

New Orleans has Brees who holds the NFL yardage record, by a substantial margin and a completion percentage of over seventy percent. They have more offensive weapons than any other team in playoffs at this point, their running game is superior and Sproles has proved to be a nightmare matchup for defenses. Their offensive line is particularly solid in the middle though they will be tested this week. The defense has been inconsistent but is usually in the position of protecting substantial leads.

The Lions are a young team and immature and it shows in their play which is sometimes sloppy with too many penalties and mental errors. New Orleans plays exceptionally well at home and they game plan well to take advantage of their strengths and the opponent’s weaknesses. This game could be a track meet but it also could get out of hand early, Saints win 38 – 24.

Atlanta at New York – Atlanta has become a much more vertical offense as the season has progressed. Jones has given them a player who stretches the field and makes their running game easier as well as opening up holes in the coverage for other receivers. The defense is solid against the run but the secondary is very suspect, they will need a greatly improved pass rush this week.

New York has been inconsistent though some of that is attributed to injury issues. The defensive line is very good and getting better at the right time of the year. Manning is having a career season, unnoticed as there have been so many strong quarterback showings this year and he is helped by having both running backs available at this point in the playoffs. This team seems to play at its best with their backs against the wall.

This is not an easy game to call, turnovers will probably decide this one or it could come down to a last possession type of game. Atlanta is not a particularly good road team and they have an exploitable weakness. New York has been inconsistent at times but seem to be playing well over the last couple of games, Giants win 24 – 20.

Pittsburgh at Denver – As noted before backing into the playoffs is not a good omen for moving into the playoffs and Denver has been backing up for weeks. This is a largely one-dimensional team that has an effective running attack and little else. The passing game is limited by having a limited receiving corps and a passer who is inaccurate and inconsistent despite his other talents. The defense can be very good at times but they need to be supported by an offense that can at least score a bit.

Pittsburgh has some nontrivial injury issues. In addition to Roethlisberger and Pouncey recovering from injuries, but still obviously recovering, they lose Mendenhall. The offense has transitioned into a big play, passing attack, not the grind it out running attack of their vaunted history. The weapons are there but the offensive line is not particularly good which is a problem given how long the quarterback holds onto the ball. The defense has been inconsistent at times but still is capable of making big plays and should do well against a limited offensive attack.

The way these quarterbacks try to extend plays there could be a lot of sacks and potential turnovers cropping up in this game. That is particularly bad for Denver who really has very limited resources to recover from any kind of a substantial deficit. Pittsburgh should prevail in what should be a relatively low scoring game, Steelers win 20 – 10.

Week sixteen was a very good 13 – 3 straight up with which brings the season record up to 162 – 78. Picking against the spread was another below average week 7 – 8 – 1; which means I am doomed to a losing record against the spread for the first time as I go into the final week of the season 109 – 126 – 5. The final week has all games being played on New Year’s Day this week so these are being posted on Thursday, a day later than usual to try to figure out who is being rested going into the playoffs the following weekend. There is a lot of guesswork in week seventeen as we try to figure out which teams have packed it in and who will be resting players.

The standard disclaimer goes like this; these picks are for amusement value only. They are not to be confused with the recommended picks of the site. I participate in a pick ‘em league and these represent my picks for that league though I may modify my picks there as injury news updates come in later in the week. My versus the spread results are against the line at the time I made the pick, usually the day before the picks get posted; this week that will be Wednesday evening after reviewing practice reports.

Week 17

Tampa Bay at Atlanta – Tampa Bay has been generally playing horribly and it looks like they are playing out the string waiting to go home for the off season. Atlanta is in the playoffs and could rest players here as they will be on the road next week but it likely would not matter a lot, Falcons win 28 – 17.

Baltimore at Cincinnati – The Bengals win and they are in the playoffs, they have a limited offense and solid defense but will need to be at the top of their game. Baltimore is playing for a first round bye and need the rest, they have been very inconsistent on the road, Ravens win 20 – 17.

Pittsburgh at Cleveland – Cleveland has been struggling on offense all season injuries have been an issue the defense has played well under the circumstances. Pittsburgh needs help if they are to change their seeding for the playoffs but need to win to take advantage of any help, Steelers win 24 – 14.

Detroit at Green Bay – Green Bay has a banged up offensive line facing a strong defensive line, if Rodgers is still in the game at the end of the half it would be a mistake. Detroit is in the playoffs and cannot help their position much the game plan may be vanilla, Lions win 28 – 21.

Tennessee at Houston – The Texans are locked into the third seed in the playoffs and are likely to rest players and pull starters early since a win here is largely irrelevant. Tennessee is in the playoff picture but even with a win would need some help, the running game has to get going, Titans win 21 – 17.

Indianapolis at Jacksonville – Jacksonville is still playing but the offense is ineffective outside of the running game, the defense has lapsed a bit of late. Indianapolis also is playing hard and can deprive themselves of the first pick in the draft with a win here, Colts win 21 – 17.

NY Jets at Miami – New York threw over sixty passes last week not a game plan they can live with, the defense has been somewhat flat. The Dolphins are playing well, the defense in particular has been solid; the offense is reasonably productive but they have limited options, Dolphins win 21 – 17.

Chicago at Minnesota – The Vikings have been in most of their games but without Peterson and with a limited pass offense the prospects are dim. Chicago has lost most of the key pieces of their offense in the second half the season, the defense is solid though overworked, Bears win 24 – 20.

Carolina at New Orleans – The Panthers have been playing well offensively and will be a popular dark horse next season the defense has injury issues and has been ineffective. New Orleans should probably not be playing this too hard as it is unlikely they can improve their playoff position, Saints win 28 – 24.

Buffalo at New England – Buffalo had one offensive touchdown among their forty points last week, probably not going to happen this week. New England has clinched a bye but needs a win to assure home field advantage; the offense line is nicked up, Patriots win 31 – 17.

Washington at Philadelphia – The Redskins have been inconsistent offensively but the defense has a good pass rush and will need it. Philadelphia has been up and down all season and it is difficult to predict how they will play in a game that has no payoff for them, Eagles win 28 – 20.

San Francisco at St. Louis – St Louis has had a difficult year; injuries to the offensive line and defensive secondary have led to another high draft pick. San Francisco needs to win to assure a first round bye but will likely rest up some of their nicked up players, Forty-niners win 24 – 10.

Seattle at Arizona – The Seahawks have been playing solid defense all season the offense is centered on the running game. Arizona has played better over the second half of the season as their defense has stepped up a bit, Fitzgerald is still the primary offensive weapon, Cardinals win 21 – 17.

Kansas City at Denver – Kansas City has been playing good defense and the offense has picked up somewhat since the coaching change. Denver has a very good defense and an offense that can grind out yards and ultimately field position, but cannot afford mistakes, Broncos win 20 – 14.

San Diego at Oakland – The Chargers have the talent to beat about anyone, the offense has ample weapons but mental errors keep cropping up. Oakland is struggling a bit but have a steady running game to control tempo and will need for the defense to get some stops, Raiders win 28 – 24.

Dallas at NY Giants – The Cowboys control their destiny here, win and they are in; the defense has had some curious lapses and the offensive line has its problems as well. New York faces another must win situation, if the defensive front gets pressure and the receivers receive, Giants win 27 – 21.

Week fifteen went 9 – 7 straight up with one of the more upset scattered weekends of the season; the season record moves to 149 – 75. Picking against the spread was an average 8 – 8; which still leaves the season record moping along at 102 – 118 – 4. The NFL schedule has moved most the of games forward to Saturday this week leaving one day less of preparation and healing available. There are three games that look to have potential for the last team with the ball to win it and rate to be very balanced offensively barring special teams or defensive scores or big plays, Atlanta at Cleveland, Philadelphia at Dallas, and San Diego at Detroit and the “Battle for New York” has playoff implications for both clubs and a couple of other teams as well. Good football ahead, enjoy.

The standard disclaimer goes like this; these picks are for amusement value only. They are not to be confused with the recommended picks of the site. I participate in a pick ‘em league and these represent my picks for that league though I may modify my picks there as injury news updates come in later in the week. My versus the spread results are against the line at the time I made the pick, usually the Tuesday before the games are played; I try to get these posted no later than Wednesday evening after reviewing practice reports.

Week 16

Houston at Indianapolis – Indianapolis notched its first win of the season, they still are not good but they haven’t quit either. Houston is good overall, of course the third string quarterback is limiting but last week’s loss will have them focused on trying to secure a playoff bye, Texans win 28 – 14.

Cleveland at Baltimore – The Browns have a reasonable defense but the offense has been mediocre, the running game is better with Hillis but not enough. Baltimore plays like a different team offensively at home and the defense can be dominating, Ravens win 24 – 13.

Denver at Buffalo – Buffalo has largely run out of resources, the defense is banged up and the offense has been limited by the loss of Fred Jackson. Denver has been playing great defense but the offense had been good about ball security until last week, Broncos win 17 – 13.

Tampa Bay at Carolina – The Buccaneers are simply not playing well; injuries on defense have not helped but the overall effort seems to have fallen off. Carolina continues to improve on offense, last week the defense stepped up a bit but the offense should prevail, Panthers win 28 – 17.

Arizona at Cincinnati – Arizona has played well of late, the defense in particular stepped up over the past few games, the offense is limited except for Fitzgerald. Cincinnati has a good defense and a steady offense though the status of Green will be a concern, Bengals win 21 – 14.

Oakland at Kansas City – The Chiefs had an unexpected win last week and it looked like a new coach and new quarterback worked but depth of talent is still the issue here. Oakland has a sound rushing game which is a match up advantage this week but needs the defense to step up, Oakland wins 24 – 21.

Miami at New England – Miami has been playing better defensively and Bush has provided some spark for the running game. The New England offense is still capable of finding weapons and scoring points the defense is suspect particularly the secondary, Patriots win 31 – 20.

NY Giants at NY Jets – The Jets offensive has been unproductive at critical times and Sanchez has not handled pressure well. In the battle of New York the Giants have also been up and down, the defense has been disappointing but the pass rush is still a strength, Giants win 24 – 21.

St. Louis at Pittsburgh – St Louis is still a struggling team with injuries and lack of depth ensuring them of a high draft pick and not much else. Pittsburgh could probably rest players and it would not likely matter but even if they should, Steelers win 24 – 10.

Jacksonville at Tennessee – The Jaguars have no credible passing attack which leaves the defense on the field too much and they wear down. Tennessee should be focused after last week’s loss and they have enough offense to wear down this opponent, Titans win 24 – 14.

Minnesota at Washington – The Vikings are struggling, the passing game has been inconsistent and the passing defense ineffective. Washington has been playing well behind a very banged up offensive line, the defense has been playing well and should be in control here, Redskins win 28 – 20.

Philadelphia at Dallas – Dallas has been playing well of late, the offensive line has some issues and the running game has taken a step back though. The Philadelphia offense has been playing well since Vick’s return though the defense play has improved as well, Eagles win 28 – 27.

San Diego at Detroit – The Chargers have been rolling offensively the past few games but the offensive line is a mess and will have problems this week. Detroit has issues but the pass rush here should control or at least limit big play potential at home, Lions win 28 – 27.

San Francisco at Seattle – Seattle plays well at home and offensively relies on their running game because the passing options are limited. San Francisco has the best rushing defense in the league, though on a short week they should have the edge here, Forty-niners win 24 – 20.

Chicago at Green Bay – The Bears have a good defense but the offense has disappeared with key injuries and a poor offensive line. Green Bay has defensive weaknesses and the offensive line is nicked up but it will not take much this week, Packers win 28 – 14.

Atlanta at New Orleans – Atlanta will have a difficult time in this environment though they are playing well at this point and have the better defense. New Orleans has the offensive weapons to put up points at will, this game will depend on turnovers or perhaps who has the ball last, Saints win 34 – 31.

Week fourteen we went 12 – 4 straight up and it probably should have been better (second-guessed two games that both went wrong); this brings the season record to 140 – 68. Picking against the spread was a greatly improved 11 – 5; which still leaves the season record at a disappointing 94 – 110 – 4. The scheduling now slots games on four different days of the week as the season goes into its final weeks. The Oakland - Detroit game has the over/under for penalties at 26 ½; take the over (officials could wear the yellow off of their flags).

The standard disclaimer goes like this; these picks are for amusement value only. They are not to be confused with the recommended picks of the site. I participate in a pick ‘em league and these represent my picks for that league though I may modify my picks there as injury news updates come in later in the week. My versus the spread results are against the line at the time I made the pick, usually the Tuesday before the games are played; I try to get these posted no later than Wednesday evening after reviewing practice reports.

Week 15

Jacksonville at Atlanta – Jacksonville looked like it had an offense last week, it has a defense and a running game but points will be harder to come by this week. Atlanta showed more explosion on offense than is typical, the defense is good against the run a key for this week, Falcons win 27 – 14.

Dallas at Tampa Bay – Tampa Bay has had a variety of problems, the offense has been mistake prone and the defense inconsistent. Dallas has simply been inconsistent, the offensive line play has been poor but they have a lot of talent at the skill positions, Cowboys win 31 – 21.

Miami at Buffalo – Miami has changed coaches and with possibly Moore and Long injured for this game there are a number of issues here. Buffalo has been decimated by injury the defense has been unable to stop anyone; the offense has lost weapons but a couple of options remain as Bills win 21 – 17.

Seattle at Chicago – Chicago has specific injury issues that have crippled their offense which was never that prolific to start with, the defense wears down. Seattle is traveling on a short week, the offense is limited but persistent, and the defense is sound against the run a key this week, Seahawks win 20 – 17.

Carolina at Houston – Carolina has been improving offensively as the year has progressed, the defense less so giving up a lot of late game points. Houston is playing well with their third string quarterback, the running game and the defense are performing well, Texans win 27 – 20.

Tennessee at Indianapolis – The Colts fall from the heights continues as the offense is inept, special teams terrible, and the defense ineffective. Tennessee is playing good defense the running game has gotten back in gear, the passing game is inconsistent, Titans win 28 – 14.

Green Bay at Kansas City – Kansas City has lost a number of offense weapons and has difficulty scoring points the defense plays well but is on the field too much. Green Bay is playing about as well offensively as anyone; the defense continues to make plays at critical points, Packers win 31 – 10.

New Orleans at Minnesota – The Vikings offense may get Peterson back and the passing attack has its moments but the defense has been declining. New Orleans is not as effective on the road but they have the most prolific offense in the league which is enough this week, Saints win 31 – 21.

Washington at NY Giants – Washington has offensive line problems that keep getting worse, the defense is better than the result last week would suggest. New York has control of their own playoff destiny and cannot afford a letdown at this point, Giants win 27 – 20.

Cincinnati at St. Louis – The Rams have been limited by injury, line issues have limited every facet of the offense, the defensive secondary has been replaced. Cincinnati has been in the tough part of their schedule the offense is limited the defense is solid, Bengals win 21 – 13.

Detroit at Oakland – Oakland has played less than quality defense of late and the injuries to the receiving corps have limited the offense. Detroit has a prolific offense and the defense can be disruptive though somewhat vulnerable to the run, they will need to avoid mental errors, Lions win 28 – 24.

Cleveland at Arizona – The Browns offense has been ineffective; injuries and lack of a quality receiving target are part of the issues. Arizona has improved defensively as the season has progressed the offense has Fitzgerald as a home run option offensively, Cardinals win 24 – 14.

New England at Denver – Denver has thrived in low scoring games, they have a running game and ball control and an aggressive defense. New England has a prolific offense but the line will be tested, the defense will need to slow down the run or time of possession will be a problem, Patriots win 31 – 17.

NY Jets at Philadelphia – The Eagles inconsistencies have been well documented; the defense has been particularly vulnerable to the run. New York has found a certain sense of urgency; the running game seems to be coming on in recent weeks a key this week, Jets win 24 – 21.

Baltimore at San Diego – Baltimore does not always play their best away from home and this trip has some risks, the defense will need to force errors. San Diego has been hurt by a number of injuries along the offensive line; they are getting healthy otherwise though, Chargers win 24 – 21.

Pittsburgh at San Francisco – San Francisco has won their division but is still playing for a first round bye in the playoffs, the offense is limited. Pittsburgh has had a few extra days to prepare and get healthy, the passing game is the strength here but the defense is still a factor, Steelers win 21 – 17.

Week thirteen the straight up picks went 11 – 5 straight up not bad for what turned out to be a rather difficult week; this brings the season record to 128 – 64. Picking against the spread went an even 8 – 8; which after the past couple of weeks seems almost like a win but the season record is a dismal 83 – 105 – 4 making me once again glad that I do not bet football even recreationally. We are into the final quarter of the season, a time when some teams step up and others give up.

The standard disclaimer goes like this; these picks are for amusement value only. They are not to be confused with the recommended picks of the site. I participate in a pick ‘em league and these represent my picks for that league though I may modify my picks there as injury news updates come in later in the week. My versus the spread results are against the line at the time I made the pick, usually the Tuesday before the games are played; I try to get these posted no later than Wednesday evening after reviewing practice reports.

Week 14

Cleveland at Pittsburgh – Cleveland has a decent defense but very limited offensive prospects in the passing game and faces a tough division opponent. Pittsburgh played well last week and the defense is good, the passing offense has been effective setting up the run, Steelers win 24 – 14.

Indianapolis at Baltimore – The Colts have had injury issues beyond Manning, the defense is small and does not hold up well as the game progresses. Baltimore plays well at home but has come out flat in games they should have dominated this season, Ravens win 24 – 14.

Atlanta at Carolina – Carolina is playing well as the season progresses and the offense comes together under Newton but the defense is still bad. Atlanta is not a great road team and will need to get the passing game going, the defense will need to stop the big play, Falcons win 28 – 24.

Houston at Cincinnati – Houston missing some key players is on the road with an inexperienced quarterback, the defense is solid and will need to be. Cincinnati has struggled, the defense is good but nicked up, the offense can produce big plays, Bengals win 24 – 20.

Minnesota at Detroit – Minnesota has a number of problems, defensively they are vulnerable over the top and offensively they are inconsistent. Detroit has been playing, not poorly but rather stupidly, penalties and a lack of discipline have cost them games of late, Lions win 31 – 17.

Tampa Bay at Jacksonville – The Buccaneers have been ineffective offensively and defensively terrible against the run not a good combination. Jacksonville does one thing well, run the ball, the passing game is truly ugly though; the defense is capable Jaguars win 24 – 21.

Philadelphia at Miami – Philadelphia has been underperforming their talent level but have an extra few days to prepare and get Vick back, the defense will be pressed. Miami has been playing well; the running game has been solid and the defense resourceful, Dolphins win 28 – 21.

Kansas City at NY Jets – The Chiefs have a number of offensive problems, including quarterback play though the defense been playing well of late. New York has had their offensive issues as well and the defense has been inconsistent at times, Jets win 24 – 14.

New Orleans at Tennessee – Tennessee is playing good defense and have their running game going on offense but is a team that needs to play from a lead. New Orleans can’t get all of their offensive weapons on the field at the same time; the defense is average at best, Saints win 31 – 24.

New England at Washington – The Redskins have injury issues and now suspensions; the defense has a good pass rush and will need it. New England still has defensive issues against the pass but are not likely to be challenged, the offense is playing well, Patriots win 34 – 17.

San Francisco at Arizona – Arizona been playing better on defense particularly the secondary but the offense is still very inconsistent. San Francisco may be without their best defensive player and have clinched the division but they still have the talent edge, Forty-niners win 24 – 21.

Chicago at Denver – The Bears will be without Forte and their starting quarterback, they have limited resources left, the defense and special teams are good. Denver specializes in playing and winning ugly, this should be a defensive struggle, Bronco’s win 21 – 17.

Oakland at Green Bay – Oakland has been typically inconsistent, they lack discipline but are capable of solid play on both sides of the ball when paying attention. Green Bay is playing at a high level offensively; the defense has been making big plays, Packers win 35 – 20.

Buffalo at San Diego – The Bills injuries have limited them on both sides of the ball but particularly on defense as the season winds down. San Diego is known for their late season surges, they are getting healthy at this point though the offensive line is a mess, Chargers win 34 – 21.

NY Giants at Dallas – New York has had a difficult schedule in recent weeks and injuries have not helped the defensive line needs to get quick pressure. Dallas has been up and down; it looks like Fiametta might return which would provide some help to the running attack, Cowboys win 21 – 20.

St. Louis at Seattle – The Rams have a variety of injury issues and now both quarterbacks are dinged up as well so things are getting worse. Seattle gets extra days to prepare and their running attack is solid, the defense is good and plays best at home, Seahawks win 28 – 17.

Week twelve the straight up picks went a solid 12 – 4 straight up; which makes the season record 117 – 59. Picking against the spread was a dismal 5 – 11; taking the season record there down to a miserable 75 – 97 – 4. To reiterate I do not bet football and this year explains why.

The standard disclaimer goes like this; these picks are for amusement value only. They are not to be confused with the recommended picks of the site. I participate in a pick ‘em league and these represent my picks for that league though I may modify my picks there as injury news updates come in later in the week. My versus the spread results are against the line at the time I made the pick, usually the Tuesday before the games are played; I try to get these posted no later than Wednesday evening after reviewing practice reports.

Week 13

Philadelphia at Seattle – Philadelphia is clearly the more talented but also the less disciplined team, their run defense is an exploitable weakness. Seattle generally plays well as home and the running game has been getting better, the defense is capable and the short week to their advantage, Seahawks win 24 – 21.

Tennessee at Buffalo – The Bills never had much depth and are succumbing to injuries as the season has progressed, the defense in particular is thin. Tennessee has played reasonably tight defensively the offense has sputtered though perhaps the running game is getting traction, Titans win 24 – 17.

Kansas City at Chicago – Kansas City will be playing with a new quarterback and a limited playbook, their defense is average. Chicago will be starting Hanie for his second game, the defense should be the controlling factor and special teams a bonus consideration, Bears win 27 – 17.

Atlanta at Houston – The Texans are down to their third quarterback which is never good; the defense, offensive line, and running game are still solid though. Atlanta has s good run defense but will be challenged here the passing game is the difference maker, Falcons 24 – 20.

Oakland at Miami – Miami is better offensively with Moore at quarterback but they do not have a lot of weapons, the defense has played well of late. Oakland has played well on the road this season, the running game continues to carry this team but they have big play potential, Raiders win 21 – 17.

Denver at Minnesota – Minnesota has been playing better offensively though they have key players who are nicked up, the defense has been inconsistent. Denver has been playing outstanding defense of late and should be able to control the tempo here, Broncos win 17 – 14.

Indianapolis at New England – Indianapolis has no offensive strengths at all, special teams are terrible; the defense is small and wears down as the game progresses. New England is not noted for easing up so this should be a blow out, Patriots win 42 – 14.

Cincinnati at Pittsburgh – Cincinnati has been playing good defense and the offense has been steadily improving but playing on the road they will be challenged. Pittsburgh has a solid passing attack the defense is still solid though less formidable than previous years, Steelers win 28 – 20.

Carolina at Tampa Bay – The Panthers have their first road win but their poor running defense is going to be challenged here against a division opponent. Tampa Bay has a solid running game but they cannot afford turnovers and they are not a big play team, Buccaneers win 24 – 20.

NY Jets at Washington – Washington has been almost as inconsistent as their starting quarterback(s), the changing personnel leave little chance of continuity. New York has also been underachieving as a group, the offense lacks any clear identity the defense inconsistent, Jets win 24 – 17.

Baltimore at Cleveland – The Browns have limited offensive potential, getting Hillis back helps some but the receiving corps cannot challenge the defensive secondary. Baltimore has had some let downs but will have had a few days more to prepare, Ravens win 21 – 13.

Dallas at Arizona – The Cardinals have limited offense and a mediocre defense though special teams have managed to pull out a couple of wins. Dallas has been typically inconsistent; the defense is making more big plays but still has costly lapses, Cowboys win 28 – 20.

Green Bay at NY Giants – New York is on a short week and has significant injury concerns; the defense has not been playing well in the past few games. Green Bay continues to roll based on their offense which has been able to score seemingly at will, Packers win 34 – 24.

St. Louis at San Francisco – The Rams have been hurt by injury and a general lack of depth, the defensive ends are talented but the secondary is limited. San Francisco plays well at home and the defense is very good, the offense is average, Forty-niners win 28 – 17.

Detroit at New Orleans – The Lions are falling apart and the schedule is not helping, the team lacks discipline and they are hurting themselves more than the opponents. New Orleans is hard to beat at home; the offense is loaded with weapons, Saints win 35 – 24.

San Diego at Jacksonville – The Jaguars are a running game and little else, the defense is not that bad but has to be on the field too much. San Diego has been very disappointing, the talent level is good but the team has been making mental errors and baffling coaching decisions, Chargers win 24 – 20.

Week eleven the straight up picks recovered going 10 – 4 straight up; which makes the season record 105 – 55. Picking against the spread a reversed 4 – 10; taking the season record there down to a miserable 70 – 86 – 4. To reiterate I do not bet football and this is why though this looks like the first year where I am going to go under average against the spread barring a huge comeback here in the past six weeks, not really likely. Oddly the straight up picks are running at the typical level and the over under numbers for the season have been spectacularly good thus far at 92 – 64 – 4.

The standard disclaimer goes like this; these picks are for amusement value only. They are not to be confused with the recommended picks of the site. I participate in a pick ‘em league and these represent my picks for that league though I may modify my picks there as injury news updates come in later in the week. My versus the spread results are against the line at the time I made the pick, usually the Tuesday before the games are played; I try to get these posted no later than Wednesday evening after reviewing practice reports.

Week 12

Green Bay at Detroit – Detroit has a chance here but their coverage is an issue, they will need to get immediate pressure with a four man rush. Green Bay has issues in their defensive secondary as well but they do make big plays and their offensive execution has been outstanding, Packers win 35 – 30.

Miami at Dallas – The Dolphins have been on a roll after a dreadful start the offense has adjusted to the quarterback change and the defense has been more efficient. Dallas has found a running game and the defense is improved as well, they are playing at home on a short week, Cowboys win 28 – 20.

San Francisco at Baltimore – San Francisco is a good team, the defense is outstanding and the offense solid if unspectacular but that may not be enough this week. Baltimore seems to play to the level of their opponent; they should be able to shut down the running game, Ravens win 24 – 20.

Minnesota at Atlanta – The Vikings are playing better as the playbook opens up for Ponder, Peterson may not be available and the defensive secondary is a question as well. Atlanta has some defensive issues but should not be tested here, they play well at home, Falcons win 28 – 21.

Cleveland at Cincinnati – Cleveland injuries and a lack of talent combine to give them very limited offensive options. Cincinnati has played well but lost the past two weeks against superior talent which is not the case this week, the defense should be in control, Bengals win 27 – 14.

Carolina at Indianapolis – The Colts are coming off of a bye which means they didn’t lose last week, the defense is small and wears down late in games. Carolina has a good running game and can set up the pass, the defense is very inconsistent though they should control the tempo, Panthers win 28 – 20.

Houston at Jacksonville – Jacksonville has a reasonable defense but the offense is one-dimensional with no big play threat at all. Houston will be starting a backup quarterback but the running game will be the focus here with just enough passing to break pattern, Texans win 28 – 17.

Buffalo at New York Jets – The Bills defense has lost key personnel and the offensive line is a shambles as well. New York is inconsistent and the offense particularly so; the defense may be able to win this by virtue of controlling field position if not outright scoring, Jets win 24 – 13.

Arizona at St Louis – Arizona is struggling, the defense is inconsistent, particularly the secondary; the offense except for Fitzgerald is largely inept. St Louis is injured along the offensive line and the defensive secondary the advantage here seems to be home field, Rams win 24 – 20.

Tampa Bay at Tennessee – The Titans are limited offensively and may be without their starting quarterback, defensively they are sound. Tampa Bay is very inconsistent; a lot will depend upon their ability to establish the running game, Buccaneers win 21 – 20.

Chicago at Oakland – Chicago faces a long road trip and starting a backup quarterback, the defense is playing well but the offense may have issues getting started. Oakland is playing better offensively each week the defense can be solid but mental errors are still too frequent, Raiders win 27 – 21.

Washington at Seattle – The Redskins has a decent defensive front but the offense has been especially ugly, lacking continuity of any type. Seattle has brought ugly football to new heights both offensively and defensively, they still play well at home, Seahawks win 27 – 17.

New England at Philadelphia – Philadelphia is talented but offensive injuries and a lack of defensive continuity has cost them wins. New England is not the juggernaut it once was but the offense is still prolific and the defense makes enough plays most weeks, Patriots win 28 – 24.

Denver at San Diego – The Broncos have brought the running game back to prominence but it is the defense that has really been outstanding recently. San Diego has issues along the offensive line, they need to stop turning the ball over but they have plenty of weapons, Chargers win 24 – 17.

Pittsburgh at Kansas City – Kansas City has lost any number of key players to injury, they have a limited talent pool left to draw from. Pittsburgh has issues with injury but the bye week should help there also but the defense is still solid and the offense can score in a hurry, Steelers win 28 – 10.

New York Giants at New Orleans – The Giants have had a couple of problems recently, mostly having to do with their schedule which is difficult. New Orleans is coming off of their bye and should be healthy and have a game plan, it better contain good protection for Brees, Saints win 28 – 20.