Football Forecasters

Well another football season is done and now we wait. Through the playoffs I went 8 – 3 0n straight up picks and 7 – 4 against the spread. For the season I was 176 - 80 straight up and 139 - 113 – 4 adding in the post season that makes the percentages .689 straight up and a very respectable .555 against the spread. It sets a difficult standard to meet for next season.

A couple Super Bowl comments seem appropriate. The Saints out coached the Colts; the key play being the onside kick to start the second half. That play rates to work about seventy percent of the time. (Of course, if it had not worked, the play would be being dissected as being questionable. It is amazing how an idea is good or bad depending upon the outcome.) Other good coaching decisions included going for the touchdown at the end of the quarter. It ran time off the clock and got the conservative response that was likely from the Colts. All of this blends with a game plan that was very patient, running underneath patterns against the cover-two and playing patiently. Compare these choices with the conservative play calling by the Colts at the end of the first half and the very questionable fifty plus yard field goal attempt.

One comment on the Porter interception.  This was a great play by Porter.  Contrary to other comments though Manning’s pass, while not perfect, was not the problem.  With the jump Porter had on the ball he would have intercepted a perfect ball because he broke on the route better than Wayne did.  Which gets me to this observation, perhaps Wayne telegraphed the stop because of his bad knee.  He may have shortened his stride giving Porter the play as it appears that Porter actually broke toward the ball before Wayne did.  Could be that Porter just jumped the route but the pivot by Wayne looked a bit sloppy.

The labor situation looks ominous. The uncapped season hurts players and owners alike to some extent. The free agent market may be lucrative but the talent pool is going to be somewhat thin. It seems that the owners and the union are engaging in a game of chicken with billions of dollars at stake. It is hard to believe that there will be a lock out this season but it might be possible.

We will be back before the draft with our predictions and then with our preseason predictions during training camps. In the mean time, we will be studying the front office moves and looking for the edge for next season.

In the conference round of the playoffs we went 2 – 2 both straight up and against the spread which makes the playoff record 8 – 2 straight up and 7 – 3 against the spread. I only have one game to screw up at this point so it looks like I will be forced to end up with a winning record both ways so I am playing with house money. (Personally, I don’t believe in the concept of house money, once you win it is yours so you can only lose. This attitude probably explains why I do not bet on football; then again, I am a pessimist.)

Super Bowl

The Saints come into the big game off an overtime win in the Championship game where they received the lion’s share of the breaks to get their first trip to the Super Bowl. The Saints have an explosive and diverse offensive; they are very talented at all of the skill positions. The offensive line is very good in the middle though the loss of Jammal Brown early in the season has made them a bit vulnerable at the tackle.

Statistically the Saints led the NFL offensively in points and yardage. Brees led the NFL in quarterback rating and completed over seventy per cent of his passes this season. While the passing game gets most of the attention, they run about forty-five percent of their plays and are very effective; sixth in rushing average at 4.5 yards/carry.

The defense has been up and down over the season; starting very strong but injuries created some issues. Gregg Williams became the defensive coordinator this season and the defense has scheme has become much more aggressive. They blitz aggressively and look to create turnover opportunities. They will give up yardage and points though when the gambles do not pay off.

For the Colts this is their second trip to the Super Bowl in the past four years. They have beaten two excellent defensive teams in rather convincing fashion rolling up 461 total yards of offense against the best defense in the league. The passing game ranked second in the league by yardage but the running game ranked last. Of course, they also had the second highest number of pass attempts (and most completions) and the second fewest rushing attempts. They run the ball just under forty percent of the time.

On the defensive time of the ball, the Colts had a number of injury issues throughout the season but were still, overall, an effective unit. The defense is small and undersized at most positions from the NFL norm, which may contribute to their injury rate. The key to this defense is speed; they swarm to the ball. They still are fundamentally a cover two defense but in this iteration; under Coyer, they are more aggressive than they have been in the past.

This Super Bowl is a rare matchup of number one seeds that feature explosive offenses. The general view is that this should be a high scoring game with multiple lead changes where the last team with the ball wins. It is a nice script and certainly possible but perhaps not as likely as it is being hyped up to be.

The Saints should be looking to their balance and establishing the running game to set up the pass. Despite the showing in the Conference round the Colts are not a team that has given up a lot of deep balls. Big receivers on underneath routes have been particularly successful. The Saints will likely look to setup their play action for any deep plays. The Colts really are not all that vertical of a passing team mostly because opponents do not give them much of an opportunity and Manning is very patient, taking what he is given. A fast pace is generally bad for both teams given the offenses because in that type of game the margin of error is going to be extremely small. Conservative game plans seem likely for both teams.

New Orleans may have a slight edge in overall offense because of their balance. Defensively the Colts have the advantage and it is bigger than it appears from a purely statistical point of view. The problems teams have with playing great offenses like these is that their defense just can not handle the number of weapons the other team can put on the field. However, the Colts have a number of talented defensive backs and do match up reasonably well across the field with the Saints receivers. The same is not true for the Saints, who do not match up well with the second, third, and fourth options of the Colts. The edge in special teams has to go to the Saints purely by virtue of having Reggie Bush as a returner; neither team is particularly strong in this area though.

Brees was statistically the best performer at quarterback in the NFL; Manning was the MVP. This makes sense when you consider that Manning makes everyone around him better and is one of the great students of the game. His games in the playoffs have been amazing not so much in a statistical sense but because he has been throwing the ball with uncanny accuracy, hitting receivers in small openings at the right time. He may have a bad game but that does not seem to be something to count on and as good as Brees is, Manning is better.

Much has been made out of Greg Williams stating that New Orleans would try to get some “remember-me shots” on Manning. He needs to remember that the NFL officials review game film also. The NFL has already noted that the officials missed roughing the passer calls in BOTH championship round games. This is a not so subtle way of reminding both teams that roughing the passer will be a “point of emphasis” in the officiating for the Super Bowl. Expect to see early flags on this, and because of Williams comment, probably the Saints will catch the first one. If Williams is smart, he is just trying to dupe the Colts and is planning to drop eight into coverage frequently.

The Colts have been there before and they are a very stable team with great leadership, this may be an advantage at the start of the game for them but the Colts generally start slow so this might be a wash. The Saints are at a disadvantage though if they fall behind early. While they are capable of staging a come back the Colts defense is at their best when the opponent becomes one-dimensional, Colts win 31 – 21.

The Super Bowl write up will be out this weekend, just wanted to take a brief moment to brag and put out a couple of random thoughts. The brag is about getting all the games right two weeks in a row; the conference round picks went 2 – 2 both straight up and against the spread which makes me 8 – 2 straight up and 7 – 3 against the spread for the playoff rounds. (All right, getting two games right is not all that big though I did get the exact score of the NFC game.)

My first observation comes out of the NFC game. Brett it is time to quit. The beating you are taking is showing; your ego is writing checks that your body can no longer cash. It is part of getting older. You can play about three quarters of a season but that is going to be decreasing precipitously. Look if you need to figure this out get someone who recorded the game to send you the cut aways to your wife and daughter.in the crowd during the fourth quarter.

Out of the AFC game it appears that the AFC East is no longer a one-team division. The Jets’ offensive line is outstanding, Sanchez does not have to be a great quarterback, slightly above average will be plenty good enough. This takes considerable pressure off his development; he can grow into the job because he does not have to carry the team. The Patriots are in for some stiff competition starting sooner rather than later.

In the divisional round of the playoffs we went a perfect 4 – 4 both straight up and against the spread which makes us 6 – 2 straight up and 5 – 3 against the spread for the playoff rounds; I probably should quit now. Obviously, I will not but don’t expect the same results this week.

New York Jets at Indianapolis – The Jets got into the playoffs at least partially due to the generosity of the Colts in Week 16; this game could become a cautionary tale if the Jets should happen to win. Last week they won in San Diego as their defense kept the game close. Their pass coverage was good and they managed to get pressure on Rivers. The blitzes they used last week may be less effective against this week’s quarterback and the pressure may not get there.

The offense continued to grind out the running game, wearing down the Charger defense in the fourth quarter. The game plan started out with runs to the outside, which were largely ineffective; as they focused their run game on the interior line, they were more successful. The passing game was sporadic but they came up with some timely plays there mostly on underneath routes. This is not a team that is designed to come from behind; they will need to start better offensively this week to have a chance.

The Colts offense was a bit flat early in the game but not as much as some may have expected. Manning had a rather average statistical day but he played at an extremely high level completing passes on time and into tight coverage. While the offensive line did a good job against the Raven pass rush, the running game never really got on track.

The key in this game was the Colts defense, which played very well in shutting down the Baltimore running game. The defensive line held up well and the tackling was very good, limiting yards after contact. They forced the Ravens into thirty-five pass attempts against nineteen rushing attempts; the coverage by the secondary was solid and the result predictable.

This week’s game looks a bit like last weeks for both opponents. The Jets pass defense faces a better and more diverse offense though and a better overall defense is better as well. The Jets need to keep this game close and hope to be able to win at the end but even if they manage to stay close the Colt’s seem to be the team to win the close games, Colts win 24 – 14.

Minnesota at New Orleans – Minnesota had a strong performance against Dallas last week after an extra week of rest and preparation. The defense played well and created the turnovers that helped the Vikings dominate. The extra time may have helped work out some more of the issues created by the absence of middle linebacker E.J. Henderson. The outside pass rush was very effective which helps cover some weaknesses that exist in the secondary. This week they will need to get push up the middle to disrupt the Saints attack and close off throwing lanes.

The offense may have looked more effective by the score than it actually was as the Vikings benefited from favorable field position and three extra possessions. The offensive line play was still not consistent. They gave up two sacks but more to the point the running game was not particularly effective; which has been a continuing theme of late for a team with one of the top running backs in the NFL. To win this week the offensive line will need to play much better than they have at any time in the past two months.

New Orleans came out of their bye week and scored three first quarter touchdowns taking immediate control of the game offensively. The offense continued to dominate a Cardinals team that looked tired and overmatched. They had good offensive balance and for the most part seemed to be able to do as they wished, the offensive line played quite well. This week may be more challenging as the Viking defensive line will present a “larger” challenge.

After surrendering a long touchdown on the first play of the game, the defense played well overall and the secondary was outstanding in coverage. The defensive line was not tested by the running game as Arizona was playing from behind; they did get pressure on the quarterback though only one sack. They have been vulnerable against the run this season and will need to control Peterson but will also need to get consistent pressure on Favre in the passing game.

The game rates to be high scoring, both offenses are potent and the defenses have some issues. The special teams could figure into the result as both teams are capable of big plays and the coverage units will be challenged. The offenses of each team are capable of going off and producing big plays at any time. If someone gets hot, one of these teams could end up blowing the other out; but which one is not certain. However, overall the Vikings have not been a good road team and the Saints are the better offense, the Saints win 31 - 28.

In the first week of the playoffs we went 2 – 2 straight up and 1 – 3 against the spread as we were pointedly reminded that turnovers determine game winners as much as talent.

This week has some interesting matchups as well though again mistakes on the field are likely to figure heavily into the results.

Divisional Round

Arizona at New Orleans – Arizona won in overtime in a real pitchers duel last week, strangely winning on a defensive score in a game that featured a dozen offensive touchdowns. The offensive output of the Cardinals is not in question. They have multiple weapons and know how to get them involved, if Boldin is available next week that is just one more resource.

The Arizona defense has been somewhat inconsistent this season but has played very well at times and can mount an effective pass rush. They have some issues and they gave up a lot of yardage and points last week and face the number one offense in the NFL this week.

New Orleans ended the season on a down note losing their last three games. The offense, which averaged over thirty points a game over the season, managed to score only thirty-seven in those games. Still this team has plenty of offensive weapons and the best quarterback in the conference as well.

The defense started the season playing at a very high level but their play has also fallen off the last half of the season. Injuries have played their part in this, losing Charles Grant last week has simply added to the issue. The defensive backs are good but this week they will be challenged to cover and will need the pass rush to pressure and get to Warner.

This has the look of another shootout and points should be plentiful. Likely, the result is going to depend upon who has the ball last or who makes the most mistakes. There the advantage goes to the New Orleans defense who led the NFL in getting turnovers, Saints win 38 – 28.

Baltimore at Indianapolis – Baltimore has been up and down offensively. Their offensive line is excellent and getting better, a young nucleus with veteran Matt Birk at center. The running game is solid, fifth overall in the league, They have a good developing quarterback but lack a true down the field receiving threat.

The defense is still one of the best in the NFL although perhaps not as dominating as they have been in the past. They are still very active and give quarterbacks various unusual looks and run a variety of blitz packages. The front seven are very good but the secondary has given up some big plays but that has improved when Suggs returned and the pass rush picked up.

The Colts are well rested; unfortunately, their history suggests that they are not necessarily at their best coming off a bye week let alone three of them (more or less). Offensively this is a timing based offense as much as anything and slight variations can be significant. Expect the Colts to start slow but this team has come back from a deficit in the fourth quarter in seven games this season.

This is a better overall defense than the Colts have had in recent seasons. It has been nicked up a lot but this unit should be healthy though they too are likely to a bit rusty. They still play the Tampa two style of defense but they are more aggressive under the new coaching staff. Still this is a “bend but don’t break” style that gives up yardage but is stingy about giving up points.

The key here will be if the Ravens can start strong and score early. The Ravens do not have the kind of offense that can come back from a deficit and Indianapolis will tee off on a quarterback who has been forced into playing catch up. Presuming the Colts can shake off the rust before the end of the first half, Colts win 28 – 21.

New York Jets at San Diego – The Jets are a potentially dangerous team, backing into the playoffs they have no expectations to meet. This week they match up very well against a team that many consider the favorite in the division. Their offensive line is one of the most talented in the league and an NFL leading running game is the result. The problem is that they have a rookie quarterback and a limited passing attack, if they get behind in the game.

The Jets had the best defense in the NFL throughout the regular season and were solid in their first playoff game. This is an active defense, which features probably the best cover corner in the NFL; the pass rush is relentless. They will need to be at the top of their defensive game this week; keeping Gates under control is going to be an issue.

San Diego has been the hottest team in the NFL since early in the season and is on an eleven game winning streak. The offense is capable of scoring points quickly from anywhere on the field with their passing game. The running game has been limited though but they do have center Nick Hardwick back after fourteen weeks, which may mitigate their poor running statistics for the season.

The defense of San Diego has not been the centerpiece it once was. Injuries have been a problem particularly losing Jamal Williams for the season, which has hurt their run defense. Their advantage has been in being able to make teams one-dimensional trying to keep up with the offense but this is an average defense.

This match up is intriguing. San Diego has the better overall team from a talent perspective but most of the matchups actually favor New York. The only defensive situation where the Jets are not well placed would be trying to cover the tight end position. The problem will be that the margin of error for the Jets is very narrow but in a mistake free game the Jets should win 27 – 24.

Dallas at Minnesota – Dallas has been playing very well of late, balance is important and their newfound commitment to the running game has been keying the offense. The injury to Barber is of some concern but there is plenty of depth. They still have excellent resources in the passing game and big play potential as Austin has emerged as one of the better number one receivers in the league.

A three four defense the team has played inconsistently at times. They have had problems generating pressure early in the season but that has improved somewhat. They match up well against the run; the front seven are the strength of the defense. DeMarcus Ware sets the tone for the group and when he is playing well Dallas can be dominating.

Minnesota was playing well early in the season but their schedule was a somewhat soft. Favre has a history of declining play at the end of season over the past five years, the bye week may be of some help there. The offensive line has not played well; this is an ongoing issue that impacts the running game too. Still they have talent at the skill positions and Favre can be very streaky this is a dangerous group.

The defensive unit is statistically solid. They did lose Middle linebacker E J Henderson late in the season, which is still an issue not only from a talent standpoint but also because he called defenses. The Vikings had a couple of games to adjust and did look to be playing somewhat better.

Dallas is playing very well at this point in the season but they have a tendency to lose patience and become one-dimensional at times, it is hard to trust their coaching. Minnesota has played well at home this year and the rest is likely to have done them some good, Vikings win 24 – 21.

NEW ENGLAND - The loss of Wes Welker gives us line value here going with the Patriots at an even three.  Consider that backup Edelman has played very well filling in for Welker earlier this season, and the Patriots are formidable at home, while Ravens have been sub-par on the road; the intensity of this match-up will only be heightened because the Patriots were not in the playoffs last year.  Ravens do not have a reliable deep pass threat to challenge what has been the Patriots primary vulnerability this year, while on the other side Randy Moss is the pre-eminent long ball weapon.  However, the biggest fundamental match-up advantege here will be between head coaches: Belichick vs Harbaugh - in the post season coaching matters. This one is no contest - The Patriots have not lost a home playoff game under Belichick.  Our call is Pats by 10.

Also Likes: Philadelphia (+), Cincinnati, Arizona

In week seventeen, we turned in a 10 - 6 result, against the spread, the results were about as expected given the end of year imponderables coming in at 7 - 9. The season record is 176 - 80 straight up and 139 - 113 - 4 against the spread assuring an above average result there. (Line results are taken against the line available to me on Tuesday evening when I make my final choices.) So ends one of my better seasons, and an all time result against the spread

This playoff weekend sees three games that are replays of week seventeen matchups a condition that has never occurred before. Since only one of those matchups last week had any significance, you can expect these games to be much more competitive this week.

Wildcard Round

New York Jets at Cincinnati - The New York Jets have been up and down, the defense is the best in the NFL; they also lead the league in rushing. Many pundits would say that this combination should make them a playoff favorite but the passing game is erratic at best and their rookie, quarterback the primary reason. They are best when they play from the lead and they keep the pressure off of Sanchez.

The Bengals have played well in a difficult division but have had their share of lapses. Their power running game has been their strong point. The passing game has been less effective because of the lack of a second receiver and mediocre pass blocking from the offensive line. The defense is solid especially against the pass, not a big help in this matchup and losing Sims off the defensive line does not bode well for their run defense.

These are two teams with very similar game plans, run the ball play good defense. The issue will be which one is going to do it better this week. New York’s easy win last week is unlikely to be repeated, as the Bengals will not be resting players this time around still, Jets win 21 - 17.

Philadelphia at Dallas - Philadelphia is a frustratingly inconsistent team as they demonstrated throughout the season. They can certainly win depending on the play of McNabb and their ability to pressure on the opposing quarterback to force errors. When they don’t force errors the defense is average; they have to hope that McNabb gets hot, in which case they can beat anyone.

Dallas is playing well at the best time of the season to do so. The defense has been very good of late but they still have some coverage issues that may hurt them. The offense has some good weapons in the passing game but they are best when they establish the running game with both Barber and Jones. When they control the tempo of the game they win.

It is hard to beat a divisional rival three games in a season; there are few surprises left in the playbook at this point. Recent performance favors the Cowboys but McNabb seldom has two bad games in a row and the Cowboy’s playoff history is a concern as well, Cowboys win 24 - 21.

Baltimore at New England - Baltimore has changed formula somewhat, the defense is down a bit but the offense is much better than in recent years. Their offensive line is playing well and the running game is solid. The defensive secondary has given up some big plays; the run defense has been very good.

New England has a huge void to fill with the injury to Welker; however, Edelman provides a reasonable if less talented replacement there. They will need to step up but the running game has been getting better and Kevin Faulk can play in the passing game as well. The defense has had some problems wearing down late but they expect to get some players back.

The match up here is going to depend on the passing game; the Patriots defense can stop the run. Moss is going to prove to be a very difficult match up but Brady will have to get everyone else involved in the passing game and they need to get out to an early lead to control the tempo of the game, Patriots win 21 -17.

Green Bay at Arizona - Green Bay has a prolific offense that has gotten better as the season progressed and the offensive line matured and protection for Rogers improved. The defense has improved also having changed to the 3-4 this season their talent is good but the personnel are not ideal for this scheme.

The injury to Boldin is a concern here and his status for the game is uncertain at this time. Their offense has plenty of weapons but will need them all. The defense has been up and down at times and has some injury issues there as well that are a concern. Fitzgerald’s record setting play and the defense really made the playoff run possible last season and they will need that magic again.

Both of these teams rely on their offenses and have plenty of scoring ability. This game will be closer than the week seventeen matchup but it is hard to see the Cardinals recovering enough against a Green Bay team that is playing well at the right time, Packers win 28 - 20.

NCAA

NORTHERN ILLINOIS (+)(ML) - Both teams have advanteges they can exploit and scoring could be liberal.  This one should be decided by who has the ball last, and we won’t be a bit surprised if the Huskies win outright.

Also Likes:  Houston, Alabama

NFL

SAN FRANCISCO - Niners are the better team and we don’t see them letting down in this spot, after all, this is their “playoffs”. 

Also Likes:  Oakland (+), Denver

In week sixteen, we turned in a reasonable 11 – 4 result, against the spread, the results were also rather good at 10 – 6. The season record is 166 – 74 straight up and 132 – 104 – 4 against the spread assuring an above average result there. (Line results are taken against the line available to me on Tuesday evening when I make my final choices.)

This is always a tough week to pick because it is hard to determine which teams are going to phone in the last game of the season. Right now there are a number of teams who might and one or two who already have so this will be more of a guessing game than usual.

I participate in a pick’em league and these choices reflect the picks for my league selections; for my league I can make changes until the first game kicks off and will (rarely) based on last minute injury information. These are for amusement value only; please do not confuse these choices with the picks this site makes for betting purposes. I do not gamble on football for what seems like obvious reasons.

Atlanta at Tampa Bay – Tampa Bay is not a team that will be quitting before the season is over but lack of talent is the issue. Atlanta will also play through the end, their injuries have been a problem but they seem to have the depth, Falcons win 24 – 14.

Indianapolis at Buffalo – The Bills may not quit but their ability to score points even against the players they are going to see on defense this week is questionable. Assuming Indianapolis plays their starters for the first half (there are some player milestones involved) it should be enough, Colts win 21 – 20.

New Orleans at Carolina – Carolina has been playing well but Steve Smith breaking his arm limits their offensive options too severely. New Orleans is not playing for anything and may choose to rest players but will be looking to go into the playoffs on a positive note, Saints win 24 – 20.

Chicago at Detroit – Detroit did not have a lot of talent when the season started and injuries have further restricted their options. Chicago took some injuries on Monday night and they are not a good team but they are good enough this week, Bears win 24 – 14.

Jacksonville at Cleveland – Cleveland may have discovered a running game but they still have a bad defense and no passing game to speak of. Jacksonville is technically in the playoff hunt and are likely looking for a win to avoid a losing season, Jaguars win 24 – 21.

New England at Houston – Houston is in theory still in the playoff race; while the offense is formidable, the defense is still inconsistent. New England is a team that never seems to let up though a win here really will not impact their playoff position, Patriots win 24 – 21.

Pittsburgh at Miami – The Dolphins are another team technically in the playoff hunt but need miracles at this point starting with a win here. Pittsburgh has been doing their part to get into the playoffs but need help, they must win here though to have any chance, Steelers win 28 – 17.

New York Giants at Minnesota – The Giants have been up and down all season with issues on both sides of the ball. Minnesota will be trying to win to assure a first round bye with a possible shot at home field advantage throughout, Vikings win 31 – 24.

San Francisco at St Louis – St Louis has a stranglehold on the first pack in the draft that they will not be putting at risk here particularly with Jackson ailing. San Francisco is playing for average, which is a step up from their recent history, Forty-niners win 24 – 10.

Green Bay at Arizona – Green Bay looks like they will be playing this game in consecutive weeks, which gives them no reason to expose their playbook. The same argument applies to Arizona in a game that will essentially be a scrimmage before the real event, Cardinals win 21 – 17.

Baltimore at Oakland – Oakland has been very dangerous at home to east coast teams but the offense depends on the running game, which does not match up well here. Baltimore simply needs to win to make the playoffs; they should manage that, Ravens win 24 – 14.

Philadelphia at Dallas – The Cowboys are playing well but the offensive line is not back to full health and Romo has issues with pressure. Philadelphia has big play potential on any play and an active defensive scheme that matches well here, Eagles win 28 – 24.

Kansas City at Denver – The Chiefs have an opportunity to knock a division rival out of the playoffs but that seems unlikely based on their talent level. Denver has to win and will need some help for the playoffs, a loss would reprise last season’s collapse, Broncos win 24 – 21.

Washington at San Diego – Washington has not played which much focus, their offensive line is makeshift and the offense lacks weapons. San Diego should win this game even though they rate to be resting starters early and often, Chargers win 20 – 10.

Tennessee at Seattle – Seattle has problems with their pass defense and the offensive line is bad but there has also been poor effort here. Tennessee has some problems in the defensive secondary as well but effort is not one of their issues, Titans win 24 – 10.

New York Jets at Cincinnati – The Bengals are unlikely to have anything to play for here a win is unlikely to help them much but a loss might and this could be their first round playoff opponent. For New York, it is win and in the playoffs, Jets win 21 – 17.