The Crystal Ball, Weekly Pick’em - The Super Bowl
January 28th, 2009Then there were two. Last week I was wrong on both games both straight up and against the spread making the playoffs a rather poor 4 – 6 straight up and 5 – 5 against the spread. The Super Bowl is obviously not what I would have predicted but it is what we have.
Please note that these picks are not to be confused with the real business of Football Forecasters and are not the recommended picks. Personally I do not bet football and anyone who has followed this little feature for any length of time will understand why. I participate in a pick’em league and these choices reflect those picks though my league choices are subject to last minute changes based on the latest injury and practice reports. Generally, these picks will appear on Wednesday evenings and for their limited amusement value.
The Super Bowl
Arizona – The offensive prowess of this team is not really a question but they are better than they demonstrated during the season. The offensive line has stepped up their level of play, they have protected well in the passing game and their run blocking is considerably better though not outstanding. Larry Fitzgerald has been playing at an entirely different level; he was a great receiver during the season but in the post season, he has been unstoppable thus far.
The bigger surprise was the Arizona defense, actually the discovery that there was an defense in Arizona. We have seen this before in 2006 when the Colts defense went from worst in the regular season to best in the playoffs. There though a couple of players returned from injury (notably Bob Sanders) and you could make sense out of it. In this case, there has been no such dramatic return but they are generating sacks and turnovers.
Pittsburgh – The Steelers have played a brutal schedule this season and overcome the challenge. This team will grind out a win, usually by playing stifling defense and field position. Defensively they have dominated in about every statistical category throughout the season and post season. The defense can make big plays on occasion but their signature is consistent hard hitting and an aggressive game plan.
Offensively they can break the big play in either the running and passing game. They have controlled the clock as much due to the defensive game as their offense. Hines Ward’s health is a concern as he serves as a security blanket for Roethlisberger in the passing game and is a consistent downfield blocker in the running game.
The Super Bowl may not be a great game but there is a real question as to who will win. The Steelers are favored for good reason; they are the better team. The Cardinals can score quickly and the Steelers are not a good come from behind team. The question will become can the Cardinals make inroads against the Steelers defense and keep their offense flexible.
If Pittsburgh can dictate the tempo of the game, they should win easily. Their defense can rush the passer from about every defensive position. Warner, if given time, can throw with surgical precision but under pressure his ball security has been historically poor and the Cardinals can not give the Steelers any extra possessions. On the other hand if the Cardinals can strike early they will be not be in forced passing situations and can take some of the pressure off of the quarterback.
Pittsburgh is going to try to take Larry Fitzgerald out of the equation. Double-teaming him is not sufficient; they will have to hit him coming off the line of scrimmage and keep coverage over the top. If they do not make good contact off the line, he will make plays (and may even if they do) but man coverage is not an option. For Arizona, this may be a question of how recovered Boldin is because he will be facing a lot of single coverage that, if healthy, he can beat.
This has the look of a great defense versus an explosive offense. So what will happen here boils down to these questions:
Can the Arizona line give Warner enough time? Initially yes, though if the Steelers can play for the pass this will be problematic.
Can Arizona get a running game going? No at least not without success in the passing game though James is a good pass blocker and there are likely to be opportunities in the short passing game for him if Pittsburgh over commits to the blitz.
Can the Steelers take Fitzgerald out of the game? Not with coverage, the pass rush has to be working.
Can Arizona stop the Steelers offense? Depends on which Cardinal defense shows up but Whisenhunt knows the Pittsburgh offense and should have either group well prepared. Count on the Steelers to want to test the run defense of the Cardinals and set up the pass with the run if they can.
Players to watch:
Pittsburgh – Polamalu, Taylor, Parker, Ward (health), Farrior
Arizona – Warner, Boldin (health), Fitzgerald, Dansby, Rodgers-Cromartie
The last couple of games Arizona has been able to jump out to early leads. It will be hard for them to repeat that trend but not impossible. Still the likely scenario would seem to be the Steelers to win going away as the Cardinals make turnovers because they are pressing and pressured by the Steelers defense. The problem for Pittsburgh is can they maintain control of the game which seems uncertain unless they can get to Warner early. If they can’t and the possibility that Hines Ward will be limited or even unavailable the pick here is the Cardinals, 28 – 24.